Is USDCAD on the move?
Or another false alarm?
Let's watch it for now.
I shorted it on the second test of 61.8 fibo and after falling sharply I moved to breakeven, but without oil supporting that pair will not give anything back
I think OIL is done it's correction... Deffinately keep an eye on the weekly close price tomorrow.. There is an inside week bullish harami candlestick pattern on the weekly chart right now, if it can close the week like that tomorrow, not only will it be a very good reversal signal, it will also be creating a longer term double bottom formation... Looks ripe for reversal.. I believe the low has already occoured in OIL if price closes tomorrow like this, I'll have another look at it tomorrow after the close.... I say this next wave up is going to be very sharp.....
USD CHF may be setting up for a fast move down.....
Results from yesterday to today (I know Market likes this, and its helpful).
Before we get too excited I had a similar USD/CAD trade (posted earlier) which I exited at breakeven.
Though I called this (USDCHF) a touch prematurely yesterday, the count is still valid.
The bigger question is whether on the daily chart we have a reversal for a significant correction. I'm still not sure I can resolve the 5th wave on the daily into a completed impulse - does anyone have any ideas ?
I think OIL is done it's correction... Deffinately keep an eye on the weekly close price tomorrow.. There is an inside week bullish harami candlestick pattern on the weekly chart right now, if it can close the week like that tomorrow, not only will it be a very good reversal signal, it will also be creating a longer term double bottom formation... Looks ripe for reversal.. I believe the low has already occoured in OIL if price closes tomorrow like this, I'll have another look at it tomorrow after the close.... I say this next wave up is going to be very sharp.....
Brad
If you are right, do you see any effect on the JPY pairs. Would you see rise in oil as a return of confidence (albeit only medium term) or would the added inflationary pressure amplify each countries economic woes and cause further flight to the yen ?
Brad
If you are right, do you see any effect on the JPY pairs. Would you see rise in oil as a return of confidence (albeit only medium term) or would the added inflationary pressure amplify each countries economic woes and cause further flight to the yen ?
You worry too much about fundamentals... I could care less about them... Everything I need to know is in the charts ---- I can say this about the YEN, it sure is strong and it's going to keep getting stronger for the time being... But in each individual YEN cross Elliott Wave Patterns will determine direction and each pair will unfold differently.... Each chart must be analyzed on its own no matter how much correlation you believe exsists...
Ha ! You are right about that Brad. Its what I started with a few years back and old habits die hard....Economics ties your brain in knots, charts can be kept simple (especially yours - more concise than many, and no analysis paralysis). My success to date (past few years) is due to money management far more than my ability to call trades but I'd like to improve my percentage by honing my TA skills.
As I type I'm wondering if USD/JPY is starting its next leg down - if you're right we may not see the 93's again before we see 80
(I've just checked your USD/CHF charts above - thanks)
Brad - last question...... On your long term USDCHF chart, at first glance the obvious thing to label your green 'a' and 'b' as would be 4 and 5. Have you labelled them in this way because 'a' looks like it could be in five waves and 'b' could be in three waves ?
I think OIL is done it's correction... Deffinately keep an eye on the weekly close price tomorrow.. There is an inside week bullish harami candlestick pattern on the weekly chart right now, if it can close the week like that tomorrow, not only will it be a very good reversal signal, it will also be creating a longer term double bottom formation... Looks ripe for reversal.. I believe the low has already occoured in OIL if price closes tomorrow like this, I'll have another look at it tomorrow after the close.... I say this next wave up is going to be very sharp.....
If this is indeed the case, it supports your aud/cad count.
Based on rumor and gossip some traders expect $30,- a barrel.
I have not found a good technical base for that though.
That it an important information in itself.
Once people start BS their way around, it is often sign of a reversal.
Just like they were BS-ing saying that oil will go up to 200 few months ago.
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Originally Posted by Big Mike
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---- I can say this about the YEN, it sure is strong and it's going to keep getting stronger for the time being... But in each individual YEN cross Elliott Wave Patterns will determine direction and each pair will unfold differently.... Each chart must be analyzed on its own no matter how much correlation you believe exsists...
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