Elliott Wave Trading Discussion - Page 980 - DailyFX Forex Forum

diver · #**14686** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 06:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey Diver,

Sorry I couldn't post sooner, but I was away for the afternoon. Here is what I am working with.

Thanks Pip. That's what I needed to see. Makes sense.

asherewt · #**14687** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 07:45 AM

Thanks mate,

The image isnt clear enough but as far as I can see the Price (or Index Value) is sitting on the lowest level os Kumo Support which shows a huge risk for downward movement, should the Bears take control and push the prices downward. However, its also important to note that any downward move will be a relatively short-lived trend as the Bearish Crossover (Tenkan and Kijun) has been above the Kumo (ideally we're looking for this crossover below Kumo for Shorting Opportunity).

Also, the Thickness of Kumo is getting smaller which indicates either a Range Bound market coming up or even a Change in Direction if the Kumo manages to shift its direction upwards.

Hope that helps. Like always, you're more than welcome for any questions.

Cheers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by fazi

I`ve just visited it

Asher could you please take a look at this weekly DXY chart and tell as what does it mean to you - perhaps some other timeframe analysys (daliy, 4h) will shed more light on dxy situation -I`m getting more and more suspicius about bearish triangle unfolding here.

Thanks in advance

Patryk

Ilovepippin · #**14688** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 08:04 AM

I see, I see...
Well, the abcde is playing out. Wave e is very tricky because it can fall short of the trendline, but can also overshoot the trendline. The trade would be to wait for the turn and go long. How long? If you take the lenght of wave 1 and place it in the channel you see 2 targets:4955 where the upward channel of wave 1 and 3 ended, and 5197 where wave 5 would equal wave 1. In the bigger picture it would complete a 3:3:5 correction and a wave (2) of bigger degree. From there it is down again, but in tim ethis move should take a couple of weeks.

Gizmo · #**14689** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diver

I would have to agree with you on that. It seems like every statistic that paints a picture the government/press doesn't want you to know gets little to no coverage. It's the "green shoots" stuff that's always front and center.

Going back for a second to our conversation the other day about "green shoots" and the wave structure of the decline, I found this article on yahoo about the canadian economy. An economist actually used the word "deflation" but fluffed it up pretty good. If we are heading for a wave 3 decline then the deflation will be more than a "technical" status.

Canada annual inflation negative,1st time since '94

fazi · #**14690** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asherewt

Thanks mate,

The image isnt clear enough but as far as I can see the Price (or Index Value) is sitting on the lowest level os Kumo Support which shows a huge risk for downward movement, should the Bears take control and push the prices downward. However, its also important to note that any downward move will be a relatively short-lived trend as the Bearish Crossover (Tenkan and Kijun) has been above the Kumo (ideally we're looking for this crossover below Kumo for Shorting Opportunity).

Also, the Thickness of Kumo is getting smaller which indicates either a Range Bound market coming up or even a Change in Direction if the Kumo manages to shift its direction upwards.

Hope that helps. Like always, you're more than welcome for any questions.

Cheers.

Thanks mate,

tell me please - is such flat-lined lower kumo boundary considered to be a strong resistance?

I added a dialy chart now (this one looks pretty bearish) and improved weekly

cheers

edit: image quality still isn`t good enough for me, but it looks better now
Patryk

Edward16 · #**14691** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 08:33 AM

HELLO GUYS,
Here is the update to my UsdChf chart( bearish ) and EuroGbp( bearish )!
And the beast!

Edwards,

diver · #**14692** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 08:50 AM

Daily update on my E-MINI.

Trade is underwater. But, I still believe that we should be going lower and that a high was made this week. The giddiness this week over seemingly good news will be quickly overshadowed again by reality. I think we are going lower. I may eat my words but I'm sticking to it.

Franosh · #**14693** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diver

Daily update on my E-MINI.

Trade is underwater. But, I still believe that we should be going lower and that a high was made this week. The giddiness this week over seemingly good news will be quickly overshadowed again by reality. I think we are going lower. I may eat my words but I'm sticking to it.

I don't trade E-MINI. But I do share your view. Let's see how the market plays out in the next few days.

Ilovepippin · #**14694** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

Consider the following paragraph from Prechter's book. EWP, 10th edition, page 94:

"...Despite the fact that many analysts do not treat it as such, the Wave Principle is by all means an objective study... Bolton used to say that one of the hardest things he had to learn was to believe what he saw. If you do not believe what you see, you are likely to read into your analysis what you think should be there for some other reason. At this point, your count becomes subjective and worthless..."

This is so true. I am studying the EW waves for a little over a year now and still I have trouble believing what I see and trusting it enough to trade.
Only trade what you see, that is my advise. Clear identifyable confirmed patterns. Stay away from complex patterns because you might get biased as you will seek confirmation for what you think you see or you think should be there and guess what? You will find it and lose money.
Out of all the currency pairs available to trade, indecies, and metals, there will be one or more that have a clear pattern. Trade those!

kaori · #**14695** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 12:09 PM

My machine went short for Eur-Usd.

Smells as HS pattern and B wave corrective, anyone else short with this one ?

Caleb Brown · #**14696** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 12:23 PM

kaori · #**14697** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 12:40 PM

This is so true. I am studying the EW waves for a little over a year now and still I have trouble believing what I see and trusting it enough to trade.
Only trade what you see, that is my advise. Clear identifyable confirmed patterns. Stay away from complex patterns because you might get biased as you will seek confirmation for what you think you see or you think should be there and guess what? You will find it and lose money.
Out of all the currency pairs available to trade, indecies, and metals, there will be one or more that have a clear pattern. Trade those!

Personally I believe EW works also for very few out there, as far as I can see it´s been working well for Iloveppin - I think we had done a lot of same ew trading setups.

Also there´s times you should be out of the market completely when we do not have good patterns & well sized degree waves. In fact right now, I believe we´re living pretty boring times.

fxaprendiz · #**14698** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaori

My machine went short for Eur-Usd.

Smells as HS pattern and B wave corrective, anyone else short with this one ?

I went short on Wednesday went price got up to 1.4134, but yesterday's stop-loss hunting squeeze knocked out my positions. I reloaded again, at 1.4155 and 1.4135 using tight stops once more (1.4165). My trigger to go short was a Fibonacci fractal. The good thing about these patterns is that risk is well defined, that's why the narrow stops.
There's a post since Wednesday on this thread in Dailyfx sub-forums:

Fibonacci Fractal Geometry

I'll post the patterns with the Fibonacci ratios in the next couple hours. I'm still somehow confident in the short term bearish bias since price only went up to the next fib resistance (0.886 ret), but if fiber doesn't start to come down early Monday there's a high risk of price breaking 1.4165, in which case I would consider the fractals invalidated, therefore the tight stops.

Xiao · #**14699** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 01:26 PM

Hello B,,, C,,P,,W,,,Q!!!

Do you have any Can you Give Your Great Opinion About Usd/Jpy!!!

thank you

B=Brad
C=Cmellon
P=Partryk
W=Market wave
Q=QXs

ester · #**14700** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

Its not too late to reconsider if you want to .... I think the smaller degree wave 4 is going to travel sideways for a while longer since we just had intervention from the Swiss National Bank and price action should remain choppy. But I think it will end with a down side break sooner or later.... One thing you should be considering is the wave structure on the daily chart.. There is a very clear 5 wave decline downward from the highs at 1.2296 .. That should be your warning to expect further declines.. There's no way I would be getting long USD/CHF right now with such evident bearish wave structure present...

Thanks Brad! Moved a stop to +1 pip. we'll see how it goes...