Elliott Wave Trading Discussion - Page 983

justy10125 · #**14731** (**permalink**) 07-18-2009, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diver

Justy,

Thank you for taking the time to post this response.

I would still like to see another count posted for the chart I started this thread with. I am not in dispute with anything that has been said. I understand that my count was wrong. But, I am interested in seeing another count that would take into consideration the rules we are discussing. So far no one has done that. Perhaps, you might help out and give it a shot.

Hi Diver,

I count the decline from the 1.60 top in EUR/USD as a three-wave decline. Based on that decline, the first chart shows the possible counts I came up with back in late 2008. The second chart shows the updates to those counts.

-If the complex correction ends up being the correct count, the (X) wave could take the form of a couple of different patterns. In the update chart below, I show that (X) wave as a flat correction. It could just as easily be a triangle or a complex.

justy10125 · #**14732** (**permalink**) 07-18-2009, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Us Dollar

Well , Well , Well
after viewing that CNBC Chart video posted just above

if he is correct in what he's saying ,

then here's a Long Term view ( Weekly bars )
-------------------------------------- ----------------- -------

Hi Marketwavez,

I'm also looking for the USD to continue to strengthen against the other currencies at some point. The count below is my primary count for the USD Index, which tracks along with USD/CHF.

ninohoang · #**14733** (**permalink**) 07-18-2009, 11:28 PM

I"m bullish on the USD for the next few weeks. This is my count. Feel free to comment, folks! Cheers

marketwavez2 · #**14734** (**permalink**) 07-19-2009, 01:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

Hi Marketwavez,

I'm also looking for the USD to continue to strengthen against the other currencies at some point. The count below is my primary count for the USD Index, which tracks along with USD/CHF.

Your chart is indicating lower prices , before a turnaround to the upside

on longer term weekly bars ,it could take 2 years to get a Wave C high
if we trade off of these long-term Us Dollar weekly charts ..............

Well, that's just not for me ;

i like swing trades with a 2 week outlook or less ( 14 Days or less )

=========================================
Utilizing longer term charts ---- usually means longer holding periods

Here's my secondary Us Dollar Chart for next week .......

------------------------------------ ------------------------- -----------

will zheng · #**14735** (**permalink**) 07-19-2009, 04:41 AM

GBP/USD DAILY CHART

Ilovepippin · #**14736** (**permalink**) 07-19-2009, 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

Hi Diver,

I count the decline from the 1.60 top in EUR/USD as a three-wave decline. Based on that decline, the first chart shows the possible counts I came up with back in late 2008. The second chart shows the updates to those counts.

-If the complex correction ends up being the correct count, the (X) wave could take the form of a couple of different patterns. In the update chart below, I show that (X) wave as a flat correction. It could just as easily be a triangle or a complex.

What is your top at 16000 labelled as? Some of these scenario's depend on that. You might be able to weed some out.

fxctrader · #**14737** (**permalink**) 07-19-2009, 09:40 AM

Risk Management

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

While redesigning my Trade Setup Worksheet, I came across the
following item that can be added to your Risk Management toolkit.

I termed it the Risk Factor, and it's defined below. I don't know if this item
already exist and called differently, but it could be a useful tool to gage
risk on your trades if used correctly.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

For a given trade, the Risk Factor is a measure of the changes in the
account balance with respect to changes in the underlying currency
pair that is being traded. In essence, the Risk Factor for a given
trade is the percentage change in the account balance due to 1%
change in the underlying currency pair.

Assuming the account is funded in USD, for currency pairs with the
USD as the base currency, the Risk Factor can be computed using
the following relation.

Risk Factor = Contract Size / Account Balance

For currency pairs with the USD as the secondary currency, the
Risk Factor is computed using the following relation.

Risk Factor = (Contract Size x Avg Entry Price) / Account Balance

For non USD pairs, such as the cross currency pair EURGBP, the Risk
Factor can be computed by breaking the cross pair into two pairs
containing the USD, and then use the above relations to compute
the total Risk Factor. For example, a position that is long 1 lot of
EURGBP is similar to a position that is long 1 lot of EURUSD, and a
second position that is short 1 lot of GBPUSD. Therefore, the Risk
Factor on 1 lot EURGBP is the sum of the Risk Factor on 1 lot EURUSD,
and the Risk Factor 1 on lot GBPUSD.

So how's the Risk Factor useful?

The Risk Factor can be used during trade setup to measure the effect
of the trade on the account balance. For example, a Risk Factor of 10
indicates that the account balance will change by 10% for every 1%
change in the underlying currency pair.

So if the underlying currency should change by 5% in the opposition
direction of the trade, the account would suffer a 50%loss, provided
that the Stop on the trade hadn’t triggered.

All comments on this topic are welcome.

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

fxctrader · #**14738** (**permalink**) 07-19-2009, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fxctrader

Risk Management

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

While redesigning my Trade Setup Worksheet, I came across the
following item that can be added to your Risk Management toolkit.

I termed it the Risk Factor, and it's defined below. I don't know if
this item already exist and called differently, but it could be a useful
tool to gage risk on your trades if used correctly.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

For a given trade, the Risk Factor is a measure of the changes in the
account balance with respect to changes in the underlying currency
pair that is being traded. In essence, the Risk Factor for a given
trade is the percentage change in the account balance due to 1%
change in the underlying currency pair.

Assuming the account is funded in USD, for currency pairs with the
USD as the base currency, the Risk Factor can be computed using
the following relation.

Risk Factor = Contract Size / Account Balance

For currency pairs with the USD as the secondary currency, the
Risk Factor is computed using the following relation.

Risk Factor = (Contract Size x Avg Entry Price) / Account Balance

For non USD pairs, such as the cross currency pair EURGBP, the Risk
Factor can be computed by breaking the cross pair into two pairs
containing the USD, and then use the above relations to compute
the total Risk Factor. For example, a position that is long 1 lot of
EURGBP is similar to a position that is long 1 lot of EURUSD, and a
second position that is short 1 lot of GBPUSD. Therefore, the Risk
Factor on 1 lot EURGBP is the sum of the Risk Factor on 1 lot EURUSD,
and the Risk Factor 1 on lot GBPUSD.

So how's the Risk Factor useful?

The Risk Factor can be used during trade setup to measure the effect
of the trade on the account balance. For example, a Risk Factor of 10
indicates that the account balance will change by 10% for every 1%
change in the underlying currency pair.

So if the underlying currency should change by 5% in the opposition
direction of the trade, the account would suffer a 50%loss, provided
that the Stop on the trade hadn’t triggered.

All comments on this topic are welcome.

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Example

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Assume a standard account with $100K USD balance, and also assume
the trade setup below. The Risk Factor for this trade is 3.21 -- meaning
the account balance will increase 3.21% for every 1% increase in AUDUSD
... and the account balance will decrease by 3.21% for every 1% decrease
in AUDUSD.

Contract Size = 4 * 100,000 = 400K

Risk Factor = (400K * 0.8015) / 100K = 3.21

However, looking at the trade setup, 4% of the account balance is
risked for this trade. So if this trade doesn't work, then the expected
change in AUDUSD to trigger the Stop is

Loss (%) / Risk Factor = 4 / 3.21 = 1.25%.

That is, AUDUSD must fall 1.25% below the entry price for the Stop
to trigger.

Here's the validation ..............

An alternate method to calculate the change in AUDUSD to trigger the
Stop for this traded is as follows:

(Entry - Stop) / Entry = (0.8015 - 0.7915) / 0.8015 = -1.25%

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

marketwavez2 · #**14739** (**permalink**) 07-19-2009, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fxctrader

Risk Management

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

While redesigning my Trade Setup Worksheet, I came across the
following item that can be added to your Risk Management toolkit.

I termed it the Risk Factor, and it's defined below. I don't know if this item
already exist and called differently, but it could be a useful tool to gage
risk on your trades if used correctly.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

For a given trade, the Risk Factor is a measure of the changes in the
account balance with respect to changes in the underlying currency
pair that is being traded. In essence, the Risk Factor for a given
trade is the percentage change in the account balance due to 1%
change in the underlying currency pair.

Assuming the account is funded in USD, for currency pairs with the
USD as the base currency, the Risk Factor can be computed using
the following relation.
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ \\\\\\\\\\\\\

Well done ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Fxctrader

after 3 years of being in here you are the first i've seen that
has taken the time to examine and post a solid MM strategy

just as there are many wave counts occurring at the same time
,,, there are also many different MM strategies to choose from

It's up to you the trader to decide on your own Money Management guidelines,
because we don't all have the same tolerance for Risk
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
anyway ,
i see you have been doing your Money Management home-work .....

This is the most important home work you can ever do when it comes to trading

Why ,
because trading is all bout your ability to manage Risk , no matter what wave count you think is occurring !
----------------------------------------------- ------------------------ ------------ -------------------- --------- -------- ----------- -----------
Successful trading is about your ability to manage Risk of the individual trades that you decide to take
no matter what trading style you are using , and staying ahead of taxes and inflation

Money Management is a lengthy subject matter that is to be studied ,,,,, more so than wave counts

( this is what i call a solid Money Management plan )

================================================== ====== ========

I am sending you a PM
Good Job ! ------ Well Done !

brad_1199 · #**14740** (**permalink**) 07-19-2009, 04:25 PM

Here's the daily chart of USDJPY... Looking for a lower high at or close to 95.80 fib resistance for any last chance bears....

brad_1199 · #**14741** (**permalink**) 07-19-2009, 04:54 PM

All you dollar bulls out there, don't say I didn't warn you.... Anyone considering bullish USD positions should first take into account the long term chart here... Also Prechter has been calling for the collapse of the U.S. economy for years, and it looks to me like it's under way and will most likely be a long, slow, painful death....
(Chart Re-Post)

USDCHF Monthly Chart -->

marketwavez2 · #**14742** (**permalink**) 07-19-2009, 05:59 PM

Xiao ,,,,,

Whatever question you have ............. please post it in here ......

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Some one in here will get back to you

thanx

fxctrader · #**14743** (**permalink**) 07-19-2009, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fxctrader

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Example

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Assume a standard account with $100K USD balance, and also assume
the trade setup below. The Risk Factor for this trade is 3.21 -- meaning
the account balance will increase 3.21% for every 1% increase in AUDUSD
... and the account balance will decrease by 3.21% for every 1% decrease
in AUDUSD.

Contract Size = 4 * 100,000 = 400K

Risk Factor = (400K * 0.8015) / 100K = 3.21

However, looking at the trade setup, 4% of the account balance is
risked for this trade. So if this trade doesn't work, then the expected
change in AUDUSD to trigger the Stop is

Loss (%) / Risk Factor = 4 / 3.21 = 1.25%.

That is, AUDUSD must fall 1.25% below the entry price for the Stop
to trigger.

Here's the validation ..............

An alternate method to calculate the change in AUDUSD to trigger the
Stop for this traded is as follows:

(Entry - Stop) / Entry = (0.8015 - 0.7915) / 0.8015 = -1.25%

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

A copy of the trade worksheet is available here ......... this version of the
worksheet only supports the 6 majors.

CAUTION: The worksheet contains macros ... Use At Your Own Risk.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

justy10125 · #**14744** (**permalink**) 07-19-2009, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

What is your top at 16000 labelled as? Some of these scenario's depend on that. You might be able to weed some out.

Hi Pippin,

The price action leading up to the 1.60 top can be counted a few different ways. You can count it as an impulse or as a correction. For my EW analysis system it doesn't really matter though. All I'm concerned with is the three-wave decline. Based on that three-wave decline, all of the counts I posted earlier are possible.

My EW analysis system is only concerned with two degrees of trend per setup. I don't have any reason to try to throw letters and numbers at every single little wiggle the market has made in the past fifty years to come up with a successful wave-count. As far as long-term EUR/USD goes, all I care about is what patterns that three-wave decline can be a part of.

Ilovepippin · #**14745** (**permalink**) 07-19-2009, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

Hi Pippin,

The price action leading up to the 1.60 top can be counted a few different ways. You can count it as an impulse or as a correction. For my EW analysis system it doesn't really matter though. All I'm concerned with is the three-wave decline. Based on that three-wave decline, all of the counts I posted earlier are possible.

My EW analysis system is only concerned with two degrees of trend per setup. I don't have any reason to try to throw letters and numbers at every single little wiggle the market has made in the past fifty years to come up with a successful wave-count. As far as long-term EUR/USD goes, all I care about is what patterns that three-wave decline can be a part of.

Well, here is one for you.
Notice the 2 expanding flats. I actually asked a question on EWI message board regarding expanding flats as the targets seem to differ.
In a webinar EWI said wave C can be equal to A or 1.382 times A. You see the first expanded flat is more that 1.382 times A, but more important, the DJIA is identified as an expanded flat with the 14000 top as a wave B. The 6500 level is over 1.382 times wave A. So, that could mean a bottom is in. However, Steve Hochberg doesn't think so, he thinks the bottom will be much lower. So, I am awaiting an answer. Cannot find a consisive ratio analysis on expanded flats anywhere.

However, back to eurusd, a double zigzag on supercycle degree could be playing out.