Elliott Wave Trading Discussion - Page 985

brad_1199 · #**14761** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 04:01 AM

Short opportunity is knocking loud and clear in the beast..... And deffinately makes me question any GBPUSD strength...

Daily Chart --->

brad_1199 · #**14762** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 04:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

The same message goes to you as well, Brad. If the USD starts a long-term rally, don't say you weren't warned.

The first chart posted below is a long-term monthly chart of USD/CHF. The clearest segment of price action, to me, is the area I have outlined in red. That segment of price-action is a clear three-wave rally. Based on that three-wave rally, we can objectively come up with a list of possible wave-counts in which that three-wave rally can be a part. The second chart shows that list of possible wave counts.

The third chart shows that same list of possible counts and includes all of the price action that comes after that three-wave rally. Looking at this chart, we can see that five of the six counts listed are immediately bullish. (In a long-term perspective, that is. Of course price can go down on the smaller degrees of trend.) The only bearish count is the first one which has price still declining in wave (3) of a long-term decline. My preferred long-term counts are the flat and triangle corrections.

You'll notice that the last two counts, the double- and triple-threes, are drawn showing that there is more USD weakness required to complete those patterns. However, you can also count both of those patterns as already complete as of the March 2008 low. That means that those corrective patterns could be complete, indicating that a long-term bull market is beginning there as well.

So while you may be a hard-core bear on the USD, keep in mind that there are plenty of legitimate, bullish counts available. The key is to stay objective.

I always try to stay objective... Good post Justy...

EZCashDreams · #**14763** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 04:19 AM

[quote=brad_1199;310770]EURUSD Bulls look to be hard at work.....

Daily Chart --->

I think that triangular ship has sailed....

brad_1199 · #**14764** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 04:26 AM

Uh oh ! .. What's going on here... ?? Hmmm.. Looking pretty weak !!

USDCHF DAILY CHART ---->

Edward16 · #**14765** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 05:59 AM

Hi Brad,
I second this recent count for the swissy which mattches to my H1 count I posted back on Friday.
I am short from 1.0782 and my 2nd short at 1.0699 just was trigered targeting 1.04!
As for the beast there is a clear inverted -&S pattern on H1 and the neck line was broken to the upside. So you may reconsider shorting just yet!

Good luck to you!

Edwards,

gforexman · #**14766** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 06:02 AM

Hi

probably a stupid question, but can anyone recommend a signals service where I can prehaps look at for a couple of weeks to see their trades then sign up to their services if they have performed well enough??

Many thanks

brad_1199 · #**14767** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 06:47 AM

Look at CADJPY, it just doesn't get any better than this...

Bears All Aboard !!!

diver · #**14768** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 08:27 AM

E-MINI update for Monday AM.

Well another day and more of the same.

SP stronger yet once more. Now it is running up against major resistance at the 950 level. Indicators are getting into overbought territory.

I'm not sure of the count on the daily bars but it is looking like some kind of B wave to me. I can count a clear 3 waves down to the double bottom at the 863 area.

With this market up 6 out of the last 7 sessions and a gap at 906 that needs to be filled I am still leaning to a drop of some kind from this area.

We shall see.

Ilovepippin · #**14769** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justy10125

You could also count the price action from 2000 to 2008 as a five-wave rally. Or you could count that flat correction as wave (X) of a double three. You could come up with several scenarios for that segment of price action. And that's the reason I'm not concerned with how to correctly label that part of the chart. The top at 1.60 could be a wave (C) or a wave (5) top. Price could be headed higher or lower from there. So by focusing only on the decline from 1.60 and treating it as a three-wave decline, the list of possible wave-counts I came up with covers all scenarios. If price is headed higher, I've got a count for that. If price is headed lower, I'm good there too. If price decides to chop around for several more months, some of the counts I posted earlier cover that possibility as well. The correct count will present itself in a few years, but until then I have enough to go on for now.

Not really because the whole move can be counted best as an 3-3-5 expanded flat. Those are easy to recognize because a new top of on impulse never comes in 3 waves. My data does not go back as far but you can see it very well in this chart. Now, I would really like to see a chart that goes further back but basically the correlation with the DJIA is significant and we see the same pattern there.
Anyway wave C has to come back to the level of wave A (0.85) or exceed it by 1.382.
I also have a question in with EWI and will let you know the answer.
As an alternate count I have the WXY where the 1.60 top is X, and we are now in wave Y. That is a far more complex count where wave Y can be a combination of several correctional patterns.

Ilovepippin · #**14770** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 09:09 AM

[quote=EZCashDreams;310792]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

EURUSD Bulls look to be hard at work.....

Daily Chart --->

I think that triangular ship has sailed....

Yes, looks like it.
I am having trouble with the wave 2 though (wave 2 is rarely a triangle) it counts better as a leading diagonal (.i) in my chart with a breakout (.ii). However we are still in a channel and might expect some downside first before a significant move up.

marketwavez2 · #**14771** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 09:32 AM

Eur/Usd

Long term - Weekly Bars -------

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

reimitmelsbet · #**14772** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 09:55 AM

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zeev · #**14773** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

EURUSD Bulls look to be hard at work.....

Daily Chart --->

looks like you've become more in line with Neely

zeev · #**14774** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

I'm going to have a good laugh when EURUSD caves in to the down side next... I've been calling it for weeks.. And to make things even more interesting, after seeing Neely's call for further upside, I recently emailed a long term chart showing the large triangle I'm looking for directly to Glenn Neely and recieved a prompt reply back stating I was most likely wrong.... Well Well.. Let's just see about that Master Neely!

Welcome to Brad's wave 101... LoL

EURUSD Daily Chart ------>

what happened to brad's wave 101? lol

Ilovepippin · #**14775** (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Eur/Usd

Long term - Weekly Bars -------

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

We are looking at this:
A head and shoulder pattern does not play out here.