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12-28-2008, 07:54 PM #14881
1.4290??? That's over 700 pips. Or do you mean 1.4990? The pair seems to have found support at 1.50.
Originally Posted by justy10125
Edit: Well, so much for support at 1.5
Last edited by Grin; 12-28-2008 at 08:11 PM.
12-28-2008, 08:27 PM #14882
No, 1.4290. That's the low of the leading diagonal. A move below that level would negate the bullish scenario. I place my stops in the place that negates the setup I'm trading. In this case, I don't know where a bottom will form, but I do think it's highly probable that one will form. So by placing a stop at 1.4290 I give the market the room it needs to wiggle until the rally continues. When stops are large like that, all you have to do is reduce position size.
Originally Posted by Grin
12-28-2008, 09:54 PM #14883
Where are the Bulls ?......................
Can you come out ? .................Can you come out to play ?
Last edited by marketwavez2; 12-28-2008 at 09:57 PM.
12-28-2008, 10:48 PM #14884
Here is an "update" to the long-term chart of GBP/CHF that I posted here a year ago. There has been a lot of movement over the past year, and next year looks to be setting up to provide the same. There is still plenty of downside potential remaining for this currency.
12-29-2008, 06:54 AM #14885
It may be worth noting that 0.9793 would be the 2.618 extension of the proposed large wave A (from 0.5683 to 0.7253).I mention this since price is now at this level. My previous short was stopped out on a trailing stop for +140pips but its still a dangerous pair to play from the short side....
Hope everyone had a good break.
12-29-2008, 07:04 AM #14886
I don't know who does the math around here but that Grin guy better start using a calculator, or at least take his shoes off to use his toes. 700 piplings maybe, but only 70 pips.
Originally Posted by justy10125
I'm with you on this count, entered long with a couple of positions.
12-29-2008, 07:08 AM #14887
I've got that pair nearing the end of iii of 5 with today's graceful rise. I'm not sure who said it here, but trading 4th waves is not a good idea because they can tend to be sloppy. I'd look for one more break upwards after a corrective 4th.
Originally Posted by Andy K
12-29-2008, 12:05 PM #14888
I see another good risk/reward trade to short the EUR/USD now at 1.4230 with a stop at 1.4375 with a minimum profit target of 1.3825 and possibly much more. The rally from the low a few days ago fell just short of the 61% area and should act as a good stop point. With that huge multi-day rally in the pair a few days ago, I don't feel the correction from that rally is over this quickly. So I think we have at least one more declining phase to go in the pair. And I'm willing to risk 145 pips to make 405+
Last edited by American Trader; 12-29-2008 at 12:07 PM.
Reason: changed math
12-29-2008, 12:07 PM #14889
Here's a look at what may be occurring ...........
Only a Probability ! ........................... Not Cast in Stone !
12-29-2008, 02:22 PM #14890
Holy Cow Gang,
Originally Posted by marketwavez2
We just saw a gap fill of the ages on the eur/usd today! We get a gap up of 350 pips and then closed. Just plan wacky.
12-29-2008, 03:37 PM #14891
Since my last post to short around 1.4220 the pair has fallen over 200 pips creating a huge intraday reversal and what looks like will be a big hanging man daily bearish candlestick. On top of that, on the 5min chart above you see a clear five waves down. This pair looks like weakness will continue.
12-29-2008, 04:12 PM #14892
I agree that we'll see another low. I think the count that has a W-X-Y unfolding is most probable.
Originally Posted by American Trader
The second chart below is an update to the one I posted yesterday. I think the only two possible counts are now for a W-X-Y and a leading diagonal. The diagonal is highly unlikely, but still possible.
12-29-2008, 05:10 PM #14893
Originally Posted by justy10125
could you please explain to me why a triangle isn't a possible count anymore in this case?
12-29-2008, 05:35 PM #14894
Euro bear is back
The bounce for Euro higher is likely complete, while it is possible that a complex correction could be added, it is way too remote since the bear correction higher satisfied price at .618 and was actually too long in time - so more time is not something that would inspire confidence once the correction exceeds 3 fold the previous impulsive waves down from 1.47. A possible ending diagonal is also remote or impossible, without the requisite overlap and zig-zag waves.1-5 Not sure why most are counting the steep drop from 1.47 as corrective, and the stretched sideways move over the past 10 days as an impulse???
The A-B-C Flat for wave.2 is complete in my opinion.
In my view, we are in wave iii of 1 of (C) down.
My target would be an entry on the wave.i of III retracement around the 1.31 range for a planned 6 month ride to 1.16 in large cycle wave.(C) down.
Last edited by FXoffshore; 12-29-2008 at 05:39 PM.
12-29-2008, 05:55 PM #14895
Because of this rule regarding triangles:
Originally Posted by White-Fang
Wave (C) never moves beyond the end of wave (A), wave (D) never moves beyond the end of wave (B), and wave (E) never moves beyond the end of wave (C). The result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves (B) and (D) converges with a line connecting the ends of waves (A) and (C).
The decline we saw today was in five waves, which means another decline is coming. That next decline will likely take price below wave (A) of the would-be-triangle, which would invalidate the triangle scenario.
There is nothing to say though that if this decline turns into a W-X-Y, the entire W-X-Y couldn't turn into part of a triangle or something else.
Do you have another triangle scenario?
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