Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by justy10125

Here is an update to the EUR/CHF count I've been following. An A-B-C correction could be nearing completion. The decline could also extend further or even turn into a five wave move which would signal even more downside potential. However, the major pattern still in play is the leading diagonal. Another rally is coming so it may be time to start taking a bullish position with stops at the 1.4290 lows.

1.4290??? That's over 700 pips. Or do you mean 1.4990? The pair seems to have found support at 1.50.

Edit: Well, so much for support at 1.5

Originally Posted by Grin

1.4290??? That's over 700 pips. Or do you mean 1.4990? The pair seems to have found support at 1.50.

Edit: Well, so much for support at 1.5

No, 1.4290. That's the low of the leading diagonal. A move below that level would negate the bullish scenario. I place my stops in the place that negates the setup I'm trading. In this case, I don't know where a bottom will form, but I do think it's highly probable that one will form. So by placing a stop at 1.4290 I give the market the room it needs to wiggle until the rally continues. When stops are large like that, all you have to do is reduce position size.

Usd/Cad

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Where are the Bulls ?......................
Can you come out ? .................Can you come out to play ?

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Hey Guys,

Here is an "update" to the long-term chart of GBP/CHF that I posted here a year ago. There has been a lot of movement over the past year, and next year looks to be setting up to provide the same. There is still plenty of downside potential remaining for this currency.

http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...tml#post142488

It may be worth noting that 0.9793 would be the 2.618 extension of the proposed large wave A (from 0.5683 to 0.7253).I mention this since price is now at this level. My previous short was stopped out on a trailing stop for +140pips but its still a dangerous pair to play from the short side....

Hope everyone had a good break.

Originally Posted by justy10125

No, 1.4290. That's the low of the leading diagonal. A move below that level would negate the bullish scenario. I place my stops in the place that negates the setup I'm trading. In this case, I don't know where a bottom will form, but I do think it's highly probable that one will form. So by placing a stop at 1.4290 I give the market the room it needs to wiggle until the rally continues. When stops are large like that, all you have to do is reduce position size.

I don't know who does the math around here but that Grin guy better start using a calculator, or at least take his shoes off to use his toes. 700 piplings maybe, but only 70 pips.

I'm with you on this count, entered long with a couple of positions.

Originally Posted by Andy K

It may be worth noting that 0.9793 would be the 2.618 extension of the proposed large wave A (from 0.5683 to 0.7253).I mention this since price is now at this level. My previous short was stopped out on a trailing stop for +140pips but its still a dangerous pair to play from the short side....

Hope everyone had a good break.

I've got that pair nearing the end of iii of 5 with today's graceful rise. I'm not sure who said it here, but trading 4th waves is not a good idea because they can tend to be sloppy. I'd look for one more break upwards after a corrective 4th.

I see another good risk/reward trade to short the EUR/USD now at 1.4230 with a stop at 1.4375 with a minimum profit target of 1.3825 and possibly much more. The rally from the low a few days ago fell just short of the 61% area and should act as a good stop point. With that huge multi-day rally in the pair a few days ago, I don't feel the correction from that rally is over this quickly. So I think we have at least one more declining phase to go in the pair. And I'm willing to risk 145 pips to make 405+

American-T

Eur/Usd

Here's a look at what may be occurring ...........
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Only a Probability ! ........................... Not Cast in Stone !

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Eur/Usd

Here's a look at what may be occurring ...........
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Only a Probability ! ........................... Not Cast in Stone !

Holy Cow Gang,

We just saw a gap fill of the ages on the eur/usd today! We get a gap up of 350 pips and then closed. Just plan wacky.

Since my last post to short around 1.4220 the pair has fallen over 200 pips creating a huge intraday reversal and what looks like will be a big hanging man daily bearish candlestick. On top of that, on the 5min chart above you see a clear five waves down. This pair looks like weakness will continue.

American-T

Originally Posted by American Trader

Since my last post to short around 1.4220 the pair has fallen over 200 pips creating a huge intraday reversal and what looks like will be a big hanging man daily bearish candlestick. On top of that, on the 5min chart above you see a clear five waves down. This pair looks like weakness will continue.

American-T

I agree that we'll see another low. I think the count that has a W-X-Y unfolding is most probable.

The second chart below is an update to the one I posted yesterday. I think the only two possible counts are now for a W-X-Y and a leading diagonal. The diagonal is highly unlikely, but still possible.

Originally Posted by justy10125

I agree that we'll see another low. I think the count that has a W-X-Y unfolding is most probable.

The second chart below is an update to the one I posted yesterday. I think the only two possible counts are now for a W-X-Y and a leading diagonal. The diagonal is highly unlikely, but still possible.

Hey Justy,

could you please explain to me why a triangle isn't a possible count anymore in this case?

Thanks Whity

The bounce for Euro higher is likely complete, while it is possible that a complex correction could be added, it is way too remote since the bear correction higher satisfied price at .618 and was actually too long in time - so more time is not something that would inspire confidence once the correction exceeds 3 fold the previous impulsive waves down from 1.47. A possible ending diagonal is also remote or impossible, without the requisite overlap and zig-zag waves.1-5 Not sure why most are counting the steep drop from 1.47 as corrective, and the stretched sideways move over the past 10 days as an impulse???

The A-B-C Flat for wave.2 is complete in my opinion.

In my view, we are in wave iii of 1 of (C) down.

My target would be an entry on the wave.i of III retracement around the 1.31 range for a planned 6 month ride to 1.16 in large cycle wave.(C) down.

Originally Posted by White-Fang

Hey Justy,

could you please explain to me why a triangle isn't a possible count anymore in this case?

Thanks Whity

Because of this rule regarding triangles:

Wave (C) never moves beyond the end of wave (A), wave (D) never moves beyond the end of wave (B), and wave (E) never moves beyond the end of wave (C). The result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves (B) and (D) converges with a line connecting the ends of waves (A) and (C).

The decline we saw today was in five waves, which means another decline is coming. That next decline will likely take price below wave (A) of the would-be-triangle, which would invalidate the triangle scenario.

There is nothing to say though that if this decline turns into a W-X-Y, the entire W-X-Y couldn't turn into part of a triangle or something else.

Do you have another triangle scenario?