Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Terri Belkas

I was just taking a look at bankrate.com, and it says that avg mortgage rates (30 yr fixed) are actually higher this week than they were last week. The Fed's rate cuts can't possibly be intended to help out the average Joe in the near-term. I still think their policy actions are very much meant to save corporate America.

Yep, I think I mentioned this in the old Fed thread. Fed cutting does nothing to help the average homeowner, as the market prices the risk accordingly, regardless of what the Fed does.

It might curtail some - and I mean "some" - pain in credit card rates, but that's all. Which is why Fed cutting will not do anything for the crisis. The issue is a crisis of risk, and banks must unwind this risk through their own means. The Fed needs to stand ready for emergency liquidiy through the discount window, but lowering rates is not the answer. I think they (the Fed) see this and that's why they will ignore further requests from the market to drop the FF rate.

Originally Posted by Lava

Thanks Terri for the information.
I am truly sorry for you mortgage holders in the US.
That was a big fall in the German Factory orders. What does this mean to Fundamental traders?

A one-off drop in German Factory orders doesn't really dent fundamental outlook for the Euro Zone. Of course, a continued downtrend in such figures would draw some attention. Given that export-driven industrial growth has been one of the most significant driving forces behind German economic recovery, it will be important to watch for recovery in said Factory Orders numbers.

yes, honestly i felt it is un-necessary cutting rate again and as if that is enough we hear they are pricing for another rate cut, news from the euro shows that the euro is not doing well after all, so to me it is just a matter of sentiment.

Originally Posted by David Rodriguez

A one-off drop in German Factory orders doesn't really dent fundamental outlook for the Euro Zone. Of course, a continued downtrend in such figures would draw some attention. Given that export-driven industrial growth has been one of the most significant driving forces behind German economic recovery, it will be important to watch for recovery in said Factory Orders numbers.

How many months before you confirm that it does mean something? Like the NFP has been positive for 50 straight figures according to the right honourable President George Bush of the United States of America and that means nothing.
So how do fundamental traders trade? As it appears that you can pick and choose the data that you perceive to be relevant and when, how you wish to interpret it?

Originally Posted by Lava

How many months before you confirm that it does mean something? Like the NFP has been positive for 50 straight figures according to the right honourable President George Bush of the United States of America and that means nothing.
So how do fundamental traders trade? As it appears that you can pick and choose the data that you perceive to be relevant and when, how you wish to interpret it?

Fundamental traders, at least by my understanding, trade on the basis of macroeconomic trends and notions of "real" currency values being something you can objectively measure.

I suppose you could do this, but you need really deep pockets and a lot of patience.

Am currently holding on to eurusd short position for three weeks now, hoping for a retracement, please what do think.Advice

I agree David,
You just have to look back at Retired's posts to see that those pockets can be emptied very fast. A loser's strategy.

Originally Posted by David Rodriguez

Fundamental traders, at least by my understanding, trade on the basis of macroeconomic trends and notions of "real" currency values being something you can objectively measure.

I suppose you could do this, but you need really deep pockets and a lot of patience.

You can also be an event-risk trader - another version of the fundamental class. If you are an event risk trader you look for trades on heightened volatility around scheduled and semi-scheduled indicators and events. Of course, you need to pick and choose the data or meeting that is most likely going to lead to a rise in volatility, but from there you can structure a whole trade around an event.

For example, if you have a tight range in EURUSD before NFPs, you have a good probability that the fundamental risk in the payroll figure is great enough to generate volatility and perhaps lead to a EURUSD breakout.

Clearly this is a short-term strategy and you would be more concerned more with the extent of any surprises rather than the quality of the data.

Originally Posted by tamadedon

Am currently holding on to eurusd short position for three weeks now, hoping for a retracement, please what do think.Advice

3Weeks? You won't get that big of a retracement anytime soon. We might see another little retracement before the next big push forward, and at that point you should close your trade and take your loss. I finally learned 2 things that is helping me earn back some losses. 1.The trend is your friend! 2.Always have an exit plan, and set your stop loss based on a risk to reward. Usually I go for 50-75 pips and am willing to risk 25pips.

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.74 as nearly 73% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.07 as 67% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 13.9% lower than yesterday and 1.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 13.9% higher than yesterday and 2.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.8% stronger than yesterday and 10.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.


Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html

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Originally Posted by tamadedon

Am currently holding on to eurusd short position for three weeks now, hoping for a retracement, please what do think.Advice

Admit you were wrong and move on...


Euchre

My 2 cents worth less and less each day...

Disclaimer Trading Currencies involves risk. Any opinion, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.

Originally Posted by Dowjones79

The HKD is offered but not the yuan.

if the hkd is offered how come it isnt on my trading platform?

Originally Posted by ch22

if the hkd is offered how come it isnt on my trading platform?

E-mail sales@fxcm.com for any trading platform-related questions.

Is it just me or does it seem we have more active moderators here than members... there must still be a few of the old guard left out there somewhere...

Hi,
EUR continues to break record highs against USD. How far would that patern goes? From variouse readings, I noted that the moderate eco growth in Euro zone and high inflationary pressure. With that, on a normal state of affaires, ECB would effectively raise the Euro benchmark rate from the current 4 percent. But we have the housing slump in US. So the ECB raise is uncertain.

What are the chances that ECB would act independently from US economic cencerns?

Sincerely,