Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Thanks buddy,

USDCHF is one of my all-time favorites (no other pair gives as solid signals as this one due to its strong correlation with different things) but its too early to jump on this one. Also I only look at this pair for my Long-Term entries and there are some extremely important level to be broken out before we change our Bias.

Also, the market seems to have digested yesterday's Bernanke's Monetary Policy Report so there is some more waiting game involved here.

In the meantime, I'll keep buying those lovely Swiss Chocolates for my daughter

Cheers.

Originally Posted by fxaprendiz

Hey Asher and Melbgirl !
I thought this may interest you. A bullish butterfly has formed in the USD/CHF pair. You can see it in the hourly or 4h charts. Since EUR/USD is almost its inverse, there's a good chance this is the reversal in Euro for this week. No time now to post charts, I'll do it in my blog in about 5 hours.
See ya!

P.S. the signal gets invalidated if USD goes below 1.0590

Is there a good place to get info. about NZD/USD?

Originally Posted by fxaprendiz

Hey Asher and Melbgirl !
I thought this may interest you. A bullish butterfly has formed in the USD/CHF pair. You can see it in the hourly or 4h charts. Since EUR/USD is almost its inverse, there's a good chance this is the reversal in Euro for this week. No time now to post charts, I'll do it in my blog in about 5 hours.
See ya!

P.S. the signal gets invalidated if USD goes below 1.0590

Thanks Apprendiz, you put a lot of work into your charts which is much appreciated.

There is still a lot of indecision, that's why the whipsawing continues. I guess even if we drop through support a bit, it can still stage a huge reversal, it's not that uncommon. Of course it probably depends on what sort of support level it is. But we had that setup in EUR/JPY lately where it made a new low before bouncing strongly, or with cable the same thing on the upside. It might also turn out that the break of 1.4250 in EUR/USD was a false break. At this moment (and anytime in forex) anything is possible.

Hello everyone... just writing some random thoughts here so feel free to jump to the next post if you're short in time, hehe.

I'm not into fundamentals but imho opinion this financial/economic "great recession" or whatever can't possible have bottomed out yet. Only 19 months seem too short for me...better make it 30-36 months. And as desperate as I am like everyone else to think the Dow has made its low, I think it's only the end of wave 3 (EW) and we're in wave 4 since March, with wave A finished or in the process. I can imagine wave 4 completing by the end of this year/beginning of '10 and finally going to the real bottom.
Since the Dow/S&P are in close relationship with EUR/USD and inverse with USD/CHF these days, I can see Euro and CHF weakening against the USD for the next few months along with the stocks indices, before being taken up in the wave C of 4...

nah, maybe just some idle wishing to make my bullish USD/CHF bat in the daily chart to finally fly up, but you know how usually bats fly down from their caves ceilings, so...

back to the charts...see ya, stay healthy, if can't, try to stay happy!

P.S. as a disclosure. I'm holding a long-term, long position on USD/CHF since June 02 at 1.0600 and opened a long-term, short position in Eurodollar a month ago at 1.4165 which was taken out in the last days, but I have re-established it at 1.4267, so if the above statements didn't tell you I'm biased, this will do, hehe.

Let me assure you that I dont see you as biased and what you're saying is very well respected

I had exactly the same opinion few months back and I could actually see this current Rally (Dow, FTSE and etc) coming up back in early 09 and I still share your views about the possible end of Wave-4. However, my wave count and its formation has changed a bit and I strongly think its going to be a Truncated (or probably a Flag) Wave-5. We might even see a lot of confusion / indecision during that wave as it happens during the Truncation.

I agree with your broader USDCHF view in general. I sincerely think that 1.4165 was way too early for a long term Short position on EURUSD if you scroll down few pages, I actually posted a chart of my long-term LONG position which I just closed yesterday.

BTW, do you look at USDJPY ? there is a really good opportunity hanging around there which may trigger at anytime in this or next week. The key is we should be eating Sushi and shouldn't even think about Hot Dogs or Donuts for sometime, good for health

Good luck.

Originally Posted by fxaprendiz

Hello everyone... just writing some random thoughts here so feel free to jump to the next post if you're short in time, hehe.

I'm not into fundamentals but imho opinion this financial/economic "great recession" or whatever can't possible have bottomed out yet. Only 19 months seem too short for me...better make it 30-36 months. And as desperate as I am like everyone else to think the Dow has made its low, I think it's only the end of wave 3 (EW) and we're in wave 4 since March, with wave A finished or in the process. I can imagine wave 4 completing by the end of this year/beginning of '10 and finally going to the real bottom.
Since the Dow/S&P are in close relationship with EUR/USD and inverse with USD/CHF these days, I can see Euro and CHF weakening against the USD for the next few months along with the stocks indices, before being taken up in the wave C of 4...

nah, maybe just some idle wishing to make my bullish USD/CHF bat in the daily chart to finally fly up, but you know how usually bats fly down from their caves ceilings, so...

back to the charts...see ya, stay healthy, if can't, try to stay happy!

P.S. as a disclosure. I'm holding a long-term, long position on USD/CHF since June 02 at 1.0600 and opened a long-term, short position in Eurodollar a month ago at 1.4165 which was taken out in the last days, but I have re-established it at 1.4267, so if the above statements didn't tell you I'm biased, this will do, hehe.

We're again back to the Pivot Line at 1.4190 ... decision time for market

hey i'm back, been busy with work, hard to post.

anyway I've been watching the markets, and caught 109 pips off CAD/JPY fall. re entered again for another 30, and looking to see if it will go back to 85.00

anyway, decent day.


I gotta keep watching the Euro though, that seems to drive everything.

Originally Posted by Joes

Is there a good place to get info. about NZD/USD?

I guess it depends on what info you need. That pair pretty much trades in tandem with AUD/USD so they share a thread on this forum but of course it doesn't get the sort of traffic this one has. The main thing about that pair is that it is a carry trade vehicle because of the spread difference so when the global economy is in recovery mode it's bullish for it. I got whacked a few times by trying to short it so I call it the "flightless phoenix". The RBNZ doesn't like it at its current levels but there is precious little they can do apart from verbal intervention.

Originally Posted by rickos69

Cody, I have never read such a somber post before, by you.
You got me depressed!!!!!

ah man it was not meant to be depressing but my game plan remains the same.

Its just sad to know that the general public is really clueless to the truth of whats going on, what has happened and whats yet to come, like the mice in the childrens story they follow the man with the golden... in this case voice.. and the media driven BS that is in the papers and on TV.

like someone else mentioned sushi was/is the trade of the week

Originally Posted by CodyB

ah man it was not meant to be depressing but my game plan remains the same.

Its just sad to know that the general public is really clueless to the truth of whats going on, what has happened and whats yet to come, like the mice in the childrens story they follow the man with the golden... in this case voice.. and the media driven BS that is in the papers and on TV.

like someone else mentioned sushi was/is the trade of the week

Do you really need to talk in riddles? When I thought the USD/JPY was a sell, I just said it like that and if I was going to be wrong then what? Or am I misinterpreting you and Asher?
Extremely tight ranges today, so I'm not sure what would be a good entry point.

Originally Posted by Xiao

Um... okay

Attachment 33866


thanks

hey xiao, or anyone else using marketscope, how did you get the curved line on your chart? i've been wanting to do this. thanks..

Originally Posted by CodyB

ah man it was not meant to be depressing but my game plan remains the same.

Its just sad to know that the general public is really clueless to the truth of whats going on, what has happened and whats yet to come, like the mice in the childrens story they follow the man with the golden... in this case voice.. and the media driven BS that is in the papers and on TV.

like someone else mentioned sushi was/is the trade of the week

Don't start me. I've already decided to go to jail before getting a flu shot.

The public is clueless because it wants to be. In the final analysis, if they wanted to really learn what's going on around them they would. But they are too busy finding out what color underwear the next American Idol wears. Ignorance is no excuse.

Originally Posted by melbgirl

Do you really need to talk in riddles? When I thought the USD/JPY was a sell, I just said it like that and if I was going to be wrong then what? Or am I misinterpreting you and Asher?
Extremely tight ranges today, so I'm not sure what would be a good entry point.

Here's my interpretation.
The American people are at the mercy of piranhas.
While the monies are being chomped down, no real good will come to the economy. It was just an opportunity for the piranhas.
And since this is the case, the dollar will be blown between a rock and a hard place.

As for culinary tastes, I hate sushi. I'd opt for pan pizza, BBQ ribs, fried chicken, all kinds of junk food. A mousaka would be nice too.

And to top it all off, Cody feels horrible, because although he is making money, his country is falling apart around him. Almost makes him think "What's the use?"

Maybe by interpreting him, we'll get a response.

EJ has been moving in a nice upward 5 min channel for the past 3 hrs.

ps. I'm biased because I picked it up at 132.50

And before our Asian friends ask why, because it tried to go below that earlier and didn't succeed.

Just as an FYI, also earlier, it tried to go past the 0.214 (112.06-139.22) at 133.41 and got rejected. I wonder if it will try again.