pretty hard to get used to this 1435? to 144? friggin range
I guess with no forseeable mega news in either direction here we will sit. Yes lots of news, but it all seems too predictable. Unless of course any one has something of non public knowledge to share? Even then, who'd believe you here?
If I have this wrong, I welcome corrections, but no pretty charts please.
Hard to even scalp as you never know whether it's about to burst the dam and you miss the mega run. Damn no hedging BS! I think I need a bigger margin to take full advantage of this impending gold rush. Up or down it's all good to me.
The Latest Hotness Indicator
Published: Wednesday, 5 Aug 2009 | 9:59 AM ET Text Size By: Jane Wells
Correspondent
There are many ways to measure where we are in the economic cycle. GDP, unemployment numbers, housing starts, hot waitresses.
"The hotter the waitresses, the weaker the economy," Hugo Lindgren writes in New York Magazine. He has developed the Hot Waitress Index, under the theory that attractive people land great jobs in sales...when there are jobs in sales. When the economy contracts, they trade down to waiting tables.
Lindgren spoke to one waitress at a club on the Lower East Side, who told him, "They slowly let the boys go, then the less attractive girls, and then these hot girls appeared out of nowhere." But he also points out that hotness only goes so far. "Rare indeed is the waitress who is so smoking that customers don't mind when she drops a glass of Cabernet into their laps."
Hot people will migrate back to better jobs sooner than not-so-hot auto workers.
So when you see the hot waitress go, it's time to feel good, not bad.
The economy is rebounding.
Finally, Lindgren points out other indices apart from the Bureau of Labor Statistics which measure economic ups and down: The Overeducated Cabbie Index and, my favorite, The Speed at Which Contractors Return Calls Index- "within 24 hours, you're in a recession; if they call you without prompting, that's a depression."
Is master CodyB still around? oh, what the heck, I just couldn't resist posting this chart, hehe. I tried to "unpretty" it as much as possible, but I had to leave the Market Facilitation Index, since it deals with volume and market behavior, and what I saw there got me worried enough to close my trades.
The last 3 days the USD/CHF, which is the best barometer for the USD index imho, volume has shoot up to 3 times its daily average. The others pairs exhibit gains similar or at least 2 times their normal. My daily chart data only goes back as far as Sep 2007, and there's no similar bars since then. In the weekly chart my data goes back to 2003, and this week's volume bar is already the biggest one, and the week isn't over yet!
What this tells me is that big money is entering the market, and add to that NFP report on Friday, and (for the astrologers ) a full Moon tomorrow, and this eerie calm for the last 2 days... I got chicken feet.
So, I just closed my small short position in the EUR/USD pair for a 10pip gain, and also closed my long term short at 1.4267 along with its hedge long from 1.4010 for a +250 profit.
Well, now that my own money isn't at risk, I have the luxury of "predicting" beyond this week
I still maintain the position that the USD is going to stregthen in the long run, but with a possible dip to the 1.03 area first, making a double bottom in the USD/CHF to make its charge. The Euro is harder to handicap where it will rollover, therefore the closing of my positions there. I'll re-establish my Euro shorts in small lots once a top is visible and work my way down.
Regarding the CHF, I'm keeping my long position at 1.06 I have been in since June 02, when the bat finished forming, but I'll keep my hedge long from above 1.08 until the dollar really hits bottom.
The "pretty" colors of the volume bars give additional information in market psychology, but I already made this post too long (in good old fxaprendiz style. Pray I don't have another 3 hours internet time in 2 months lol)
fxaprendiz out!
P.S. I think it's the first time I made a trading decision based more in fundamentals (volume, market psychology and NFP) than in technicals. Who would have thought of that! lol
Last edited by fxaprendiz; 08-05-2009 at 10:00 PM.
Guys what can we make form the news today i dont know
That it's best to go to the movies, golf or catch up on garden maintenance - have an extended weekend! The direction of the market is unclear, choppy wild swings can wipe out your account before you notice. Big money is at both ends of the ranges, and they are the ones who will benefit. If you have some fun money to risk try to ride the surf with them, otherwise wait till Tuesday - next week there's some Japanese holiday too so Monday Asia would not be all that inspiring either. If the current rally extends that will be the king of suckers rallies after which the reversal can be vicious. Dailies/weeklies and the lot are all overbought.
That it's best to go to the movies, golf or catch up on garden maintenance - have an extended weekend! The direction of the market is unclear, choppy wild swings can wipe out your account before you notice. Big money is at both ends of the ranges, and they are the ones who will benefit. If you have some fun money to risk try to ride the surf with them, otherwise wait till Tuesday - next week there's some Japanese holiday too so Monday Asia would not be all that inspiring either. If the current rally extends that will be the king of suckers rallies after which the reversal can be vicious. Dailies/weeklies and the lot are all overbought.
this I agree with - best to wait for clearer signals as has been moving sideways for the last 2 days now ....
It can turn out like last week with the GDP, the main thing on people's mind now is the NFP tomorrow which could keep the USD under pressure and take the majors even higher. However we can expect the BOC and the SNB and possibly other CBs starting to fret and finally do something to prop up the greenback. I'm just not sure what can they do.
No, I'm only watching so I missed out. But this will teach me to take a divergence seriously, no matter what. Technicals are just amazing. The fundamentals appear at the right moment.
This drop also created a gap and it is quite possible that it will be filled in the next 24 hours because of NFP. But we might have seen the top of cable for now.
No, I'm only watching so I missed out. But this will teach me to take a divergence seriously, no matter what. Technicals are just amazing. The fundamentals appear at the right moment.
This drop also created a gap and it is quite possible that it will be filled in the next 24 hours because of NFP. But we might have seen the top of cable for now.
Most of New York missed the boat, unless they had clever breakout orders waiting
I wasn't sure what a divergence was until last week, I asked in here but nobody answered, however they offer good trading opportunitys
As for the Cable top, I dont understand what type of top it formed?
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pretty hard to get used to this 1435? to 144? friggin range
Originally Posted by CodyB 
) a full Moon tomorrow, and this eerie calm for the last 2 days... I got chicken feet.
