Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Franosh

Whoa...................!!!

Cool, I'll trade ya...

6 hours after the NFP reported a 50% reduction in the job loss cycle from last month, higher hourly earnings, and a lower unemployment rate, the ripples are still hitting the equity, commodity, and forex markets.
The overall response has been in Usd strength against the Jpy, Eur, Chf, and Cad. It has shown itself in some dollar strength against the Gbp, and in no reaction to Aud valuations. Oil markets have held 71.50, gold has held 955, and Treasury notes have dropped in value.
Aussie and cable have been unaffected in regard to percentage moves, and cad has looked completely undecided on where it can find fair value.
this time last week the International Monetary Fund moved the market with a report on growth and U.S. economic valuations, and the moves being made today are the mirror image....surprise surprise
what was taken in three 30 minutes of trade last Friday by cable, euro and swissy against the dollar, are being given back today, and in cable's case in trade on Thursday and Friday, after the Bank of Englands announcement.

The forex markets are out of alignment and $ may not be getting bought out of desire… these moves have the look and feel of automated order chaos to them, and are not backed with increasing volume.
It does look as though the dollar will be pitted against each region going forward on their own merits and interest rate/growth differentials, and that will create trends, trading opportunities, and clarity in what has been a murky two years of trade as the global financial rule book has been re-written in regard to liquidity and fair value on risk….all that the Friday NFP has done is to get forex pair values against the dollar back to where they started the week.
the NFP figures do not stack up somehow, and will require the global market to be open, not just the U.S. and part of Europe to really gauge the validity to the NFP moves.

Originally Posted by CodyB

6 hours after the NFP reported a 50% reduction in the job loss cycle from last month, higher hourly earnings, and a lower unemployment rate, the ripples are still hitting the equity, commodity, and forex markets.
The overall response has been in Usd strength against the Jpy, Eur, Chf, and Cad. It has shown itself in some dollar strength against the Gbp, and in no reaction to Aud valuations. Oil markets have held 71.50, gold has held 955, and Treasury notes have dropped in value.
Aussie and cable have been unaffected in regard to percentage moves, and cad has looked completely undecided on where it can find fair value.
this time last week the International Monetary Fund moved the market with a report on growth and U.S. economic valuations, and the moves being made today are the mirror image....surprise surprise
what was taken in three 30 minutes of trade last Friday by cable, euro and swissy against the dollar, are being given back today, and in cable's case in trade on Thursday and Friday, after the Bank of Englands announcement.

The forex markets are out of alignment and $ may not be getting bought out of desire… these moves have the look and feel of automated order chaos to them, and are not backed with increasing volume.
It does look as though the dollar will be pitted against each region going forward on their own merits and interest rate/growth differentials, and that will create trends, trading opportunities, and clarity in what has been a murky two years of trade as the global financial rule book has been re-written in regard to liquidity and fair value on risk….all that the Friday NFP has done is to get forex pair values against the dollar back to where they started the week.
the NFP figures do not stack up somehow, and will require the global market to be open, not just the U.S. and part of Europe to really gauge the validity to the NFP moves.

Hi, Cody. On the internet now there are lot of rumours of this market rally being engineered/manipulated by big banks, in particular Goldman, also as part of the camouflage to pop up the Obama administration (or the administration used this trick to disguise the real abyss and makes people feel all is fine and dandy). Various point fingers to high frequency trading programmes of GS and the like as the mechanism behind the rally that doesn't correspond well with many indicators etc, because such HFT can easily plump up the market as the banks wish without any real public participation. Some would say this, or some sort of manipulation, might easily explain why oil, gold didn't move accordingly today. Early last month one former Goldman employee, a Russian immigrant, was arrested for allegedly stealing programming codes of a Goldman high frequency trading programme. Goldman at the time commented that this might jeopardize their programme trading, and its registered programmed trading dropped from 60% to nearly zero in the week following the alleged theft. But no more follow-through on the case, or the alleged thief's statements.

On the other hand, on YouTube there are now many videos showing congressman being harangued in town hall meetings by angry citizens, shouting that the seemingly good news being delivered was lies, and those politicians were liars. The social mood at grass-root level seems rather sour.

Standing from across the pond, I can only observe what I can see or read on the web, but it's not necessarily the true picture. I would like to ask you (as one of the much more experienced traders here who pay close attention to the market, and resides handily in the largest economy): what's your view on the broader picture?

Thanks

Originally Posted by Franosh

Hi, Cody. On the internet now there are lot of rumours of this market rally being engineered/manipulated by big banks, in particular Goldman, also as part of the camouflage to pop up the Obama administration (or the administration used this trick to disguise the real abyss and makes people feel all is fine and dandy). Various point fingers to high frequency trading programmes of GS and the like as the mechanism behind the rally that doesn't correspond well with many indicators etc, because such HFT can easily plump up the market as the banks wish without any real public participation. Some would say this, or some sort of manipulation, might easily explain why oil, gold didn't move accordingly today. Early last month one former Goldman employee, a Russian immigrant, was arrested for allegedly stealing programming codes of a Goldman high frequency trading programme. Goldman at the time commented that this might jeopardize their programme trading, and its registered programmed trading dropped from 60% to nearly zero in the week following the alleged theft. But no more follow-through on the case, or the alleged thief's statements.

On the other hand, on YouTube there are now many videos showing congressman being harangued in town hall meetings by angry citizens, shouting that the seemingly good news being delivered was lies, and those politicians were liars. The social mood at grass-root level seems rather sour.

Standing from across the pond, I can only observe what I can see or read on the web, but it's not necessarily the true picture. I would like to ask you (as one of the much more experienced traders here who pay close attention to the market, and resides handily in the largest economy): what's your view on the broader picture?

Thanks

oh wow, where to go with this. I trade a goldman account for a client and you would be surprised how barbaric the software is.

The broader picture and this is my own opinion, is really simple, We are constantly being fed false figures all the way from where the money "stimulis" has actually gone to anyone of the fundi numbers that come out every week with the so called 'green shoots'. There are less an less jobs, more and more people are still losing the battle with foreclosure, the unemployment numbers are far worse then the figures show because it does not take into account the self employed that are unemployed whom are not part of the numbers released.....and continue to grow......NOR does it take into account those still unemployed but no longer able to recieve unemployment but still with no job that WERE part of the numbers but because they receive nothing now from Gov help, they have dropped off the figures...

The stimulus money has been spent on meaningless programs that will create more wealth for a few and very short term jobs for the country and solve nothing once it is gone, it is a bandage for a failed monetary policy that cant be fixed because it is broken by the very way it operates.

The Bretton Woods system, and the gold standard that preceded it, both contained inherent adjustment mechanisms that made large-scale trade imbalances impossible. The dollar standard does not, and that is its greatest flaw.
Over the 1990s, the convulsions in the global economy became ever more extreme, with the rise and fall of one credit bubble after another. In response to the recession of 1991, the U.S. budget deficit hit a new record of $329 billion in 1993. The budget deficit stimulated the economy, but that pulled in imports and caused a new deterioration in the trade deficit. China devalued its currency by 50% in 1994, making matters worse. The Mexican peso crisis erupted in 1995, followed by the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Russia, Brazil and Long Term Capital Management went to the wall in 1998. To prevent a global crash, the Fed responded by flooding the global economy with ever larger amounts of paper money.

Fuelled by that liquidity, the Nasdaq bubble inflated and then imploded in 2001, throwing the global economy back into a recession that nearly saw a return of deflation for the first time since the 1930s. The policy response? What else? Large budget deficits and an aggressive monetary response that took the Fed funds rate down to where is it today.

It worked by creating an even greater bubble, this time in the U.S. housing market. By this time the pattern was well established. The policy response to one crisis simply sowed the seeds for the next, with each cycle becoming more extreme. By 2006, equity extraction from homes allowed Americans to consume so much that the U.S. trade deficit exploded to $800 billion (6.2% of GDP). Soaring U.S. imports created a global economic
bonanza, with the global economy growing at the fastest pace in 30 years during 2004 and 2005. Meanwhile Wall Street ran amok, originating subprime mortgages and securitizing them into toxic debt.

Twenty-first-century Anglo-Saxon capitalism just might have survived the subprime catastrophe were it not for one thing. That crisis was overlaid and interlaced with $600 trillion of derivatives contracts, equivalent to almost $100,000 for every person on Earth. Imprudent? Undeniably. But Citigroup's then CEO Chuck Prince explained it like this: "When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing."

The truth is yet to be made public, no country yet alone an entire planet is going to recover from something as massive as what we have seen and are still going through, I do not believe we have seen the worse yet.

I have little comment on the current administration other than to say its scary where we are headed.
Grass roots organizations are working to tell the truth but the powers behind the wall of deceit are very well funded and powerful and for now the general public is still willing to accept the BS fed them by, the for the most part, a one sided mass media that ignores the truth as well.
What we started out as a country is very quickly disappearing and what Jefferson fought against his entire life has happened and continues to happen, not just here but on a global scale....

What happened today was not backed with increasing volume and that raises some serious flags and should with every trader. I had been expecting a drop after the massive run up with no time to catch its breath but something is just not right.

We have not seen the worst of the problems and I think the rest of the world is waking up now from its honeymoon with the great speech reader.

I also think its sad that the rest of the world has nothing better than the dollar as a safe haven

let make this simple

The music stopped playing in the third quarter of 2007. By the third quarter of 2008 the global financial sector was in systemic crisis. The Fed and other central banks reacted by injecting something approaching a trillion dollars of liquidity into the capital markets, but had little to show for it. In September 2008, credit markets froze. Within two weeks, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG were nationalized, and Wall Street's investment banking industry ceased to exist. A nightmare scenario began to unfold. All the equity in the global financial system was at risk of being completely destroyed.

This was LESS than 12 months ago..how does a PLANET recover from almost total monetary meltdown this quickly??

IMHO it does not happen and has not

Some would say this, or some sort of manipulation, might easily explain why oil, gold didn't move accordingly today.

I have not looked beyond the last 10 yrs but could not find a move like today where oil and gold just sat there in my search.

I dont have an explanation for this only theories.

Oil markets have held 71.50, gold has held 955, and Treasury notes have dropped in value.

On the other hand, on YouTube there are now many videos showing congressman being harangued in town hall meetings by angry citizens, shouting that the seemingly good news being delivered was lies, and those politicians were liars. The social mood at grass-root level seems rather sour.

we can only hope it grows and gains momentum......

Originally Posted by CodyB

I have not looked beyond the last 10 yrs but could not find a move like today where oil and gold just sat there in my search.

I dont have an explanation for this only theories.

we can only hope it grows and gains momentum......

Boy, and I thought I was a conspiracy freak. Ok. You asked for it.


The Start Of The Second American Revolution?
Text size
Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet.com
Friday, August 7, 2009


For a long time people have been asking why Americans are not up in arms, screaming and shouting about their fast disappearing liberties along with the continuous passage of legislation that they vehemently oppose, from the banker bailout, to the cap and trade bill, to Obamacare. Well now they are screaming and shouting – and if the momentum continues to build, this rebellion could the spark to ignite the second American revolution.

For those waiting for a “summer of rage” it has now arrived – outraged Americans across the country are exercising their first amendment rights to do the most American thing imaginable – speaking truth to power through non-violent civil disobedience.

At first the establishment left media attempted to attack the credibility of the protests by claiming that they were the work of health insurance company lobbyists – but when that fizzled after ABC News reported that there were no lobbyists present at the demonstrations, the attack dogs shifted their rhetoric to claim that the protesters were Nazis and right-wing extremists.

Meanwhile, at the same time media apologists for the administration are labeling the protesters as violent and dangerous extremists, Obama supporters are beating up Obamacare protesters while foundation-funded organizations like ACORN, MoveOn.org, the National Council of La Raza, the eugenics front Planned Parenthood Federation of America, and the Clintonite John Podesta’s war-mongering Center for American Progress are supporting moves to chill free speech and eliminate protesters at town hall meetings.

The only people acting like Nazi brownshirts are the White House front groups who are now calling for the police to crack heads and silence voices of dissent.

The desperation on behalf of the Obama administration and its mouthpieces in their attempts to denounce the protests is clearly evident, to the point where they are now compiling an enemies list via snitch tips sent to them via the White House website in order to try and neutralize the growing anger.

Another talking point now making the rounds is that it is uncivil and belligerent to become rowdy at town hall meetings, when in fact nothing could be more Americana, nothing could be more in spirit with the legacy of the founding fathers and the very soul of the country.

The establishment is scared to death that Americans may see beyond the scope of their partisan divisions and come together to stand up in unison against the offshore bankers and corporations that run the White House, which is why the constant politicized drumbeat that the protesters are nothing more than astroturf Republicans is constantly echoed.

In reality, for anyone who has closely tracked the evolution of this movement, the demonstrations owe their origins in an increasing sense of outrage about the multi-trillion dollar looting being carried out by the Federal Reserve in the form of the bailout, the nightmare cap and trade bill, the totalitarian health care proposals, and the general handover of American sovereignty to globalist interests through crony infrastructure sellouts and the emerging North American Union.

Although admittedly at an embryonic stage, the scenes we see unfolding across the country could be the spark that ignites the second American revolution. At the very least, the passionate, outraged and bold reaction to the Obama administration’s big government agenda is definitely a sign of things to come, and as each new totalitarian program is rolled out the resistance will only increase and get louder as momentum builds and people across the nation get in the face of the system and yell, “don’t tread on me.”

Originally Posted by Franosh

Hi, Cody. On the internet now there are lot of rumours of this market rally being engineered/manipulated by big banks, in particular Goldman, also as part of the camouflage to pop up the Obama administration (or the administration used this trick to disguise the real abyss and makes people feel all is fine and dandy). Various point fingers to high frequency trading programmes of GS and the like as the mechanism behind the rally that doesn't correspond well with many indicators etc, because such HFT can easily plump up the market as the banks wish without any real public participation. Some would say this, or some sort of manipulation, might easily explain why oil, gold didn't move accordingly today. Early last month one former Goldman employee, a Russian immigrant, was arrested for allegedly stealing programming codes of a Goldman high frequency trading programme. Goldman at the time commented that this might jeopardize their programme trading, and its registered programmed trading dropped from 60% to nearly zero in the week following the alleged theft. But no more follow-through on the case, or the alleged thief's statements.

On the other hand, on YouTube there are now many videos showing congressman being harangued in town hall meetings by angry citizens, shouting that the seemingly good news being delivered was lies, and those politicians were liars. The social mood at grass-root level seems rather sour.

Standing from across the pond, I can only observe what I can see or read on the web, but it's not necessarily the true picture. I would like to ask you (as one of the much more experienced traders here who pay close attention to the market, and resides handily in the largest economy): what's your view on the broader picture?

Thanks

Franosh, welcome to the club. Here is a repost of a link I posted here before.
Max Keiser: Goldman Sachs gang are ’scum’ who have co-opted U.S. gov’t
Basically, it says it all..

More...

Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman, CFR Member Picked for State Department Post
Text size
JAY SOLOMON
The Wall Street Journal
July 20, 2009


Editor’s note: Obama continues to stack the deck with globalist insiders. Hormats is also a member of the Trilateral Commission. “Due to Goldman Sachs secretive culture and revolving door relationship with the Federal government, Goldman has recently been referred to as Wall Street’s secret society, with former Goldman employees currently heading the New York Stock Exchange, the World Bank, the U.S. Treasury Department, the White House staff, and even rival firms such as Merrill Lynch. Its landmark profits during the 2007 Subprime mortgage financial crisis led the New York Times to proclaim that Goldman Sachs is without peer in the world of finance,” notes the Jeremiah Project.

The Obama administration picked Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Vice Chairman Robert Hormats to be the State Department’s undersecretary for economic, energy and agricultural affairs, the White House announced Friday.

Mr. Hormats, if confirmed by the Senate, will buttress Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s campaign to use economic, trade and environmental issues to redefine Washington’s relationship with nations such as China, India and Russia, said administration officials.

Mr. Hormats also will play a central role in managing Washington’s “strategic and economic dialogue” with Beijing, a diplomatic exchange overseen by Mrs. Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. The first Obama administration U.S.-China dialogue is slated for this month in Washington, according to the State Department.

Mr. Cody, someone agrees with you...
YouTube - Max Keiser on France24 - 07 August 2009 - US Unemployment Numbers

Originally Posted by arodriguez

let me add: that is the real world... and that's why sometimes is better to trade 100% based in technicals... If you follow your technical indicators, ultimately you are following the market...

A.

True, true and true... In bear markets sell the markets that show most weakness. It is always adviced not to try to outsmart the market. If the market is telling you "I am weak" don’t argue and just follow! If the market tells you "I am strong", BUY and continue BUYING!.... this is my mantra too...

Anyone seen xe.com exchange rates, looking for a gap of almost 200 pips currently

Universal Currency Converter™ Results
Using live mid-market rates.
Using live mid-market rates. More currencies...
Printed from the XE Universal Currency Converter at: XE - Universal Currency Converter
Memo: .......................................................................................................................................................................

.......................................................................................................................................................................

Live rates at 2009.08.08 07:07:54 UTC
1.00 EUR

=

1.43570 USD
Euro United States Dollars
1 EUR = 1.43570 USD 1 USD = 0.696523 EUR

Originally Posted by pubber

Anyone seen xe.com exchange rates, looking for a gap of almost 200 pips currently

Universal Currency Converter™ Results
Using live mid-market rates.
Using live mid-market rates. More currencies...
Printed from the XE Universal Currency Converter at: XE - Universal Currency Converter
Memo: .......................................................................................................................................................................

.......................................................................................................................................................................

Live rates at 2009.08.08 07:07:54 UTC
1.00 EUR

=

1.43570 USD
Euro United States Dollars
1 EUR = 1.43570 USD 1 USD = 0.696523 EUR

it was the same almost all last weekend too, market open is the only thing that matters

Boy, and I thought I was a conspiracy freak. Ok. You asked for it.

LOL sitting where we sit and seeing the country and the world from the perspective we do gives us a 'better' view of the reality of things.

Although admittedly at an embryonic stage, the scenes we see unfolding across the country could be the spark that ignites the second American revolution. At the very least, the passionate, outraged and bold reaction to the Obama administration’s big government agenda is definitely a sign of things to come, and as each new totalitarian program is rolled out the resistance will only increase and get louder as momentum builds and people across the nation get in the face of the system and yell, “don’t tread on me.”

This gives me goose bumps that go back to the 60's and 70's, too bad it cant also give me back those days

one can dream but has this new generation been polluted by mass video games and taken too much of what is fed them as truth through the media over the years and really dont care ??

We were not polluted by TV yet and the power it holds, the truth was far easier, many still had 3 channels and no color TV's yet, you did not hear DAMN on TV then but shows now have words in them that are BANNED from public forums such as this

It will not start from the youth this time, they have become fat, lazy and content, not to mention too much like robots even though they like to think they are all individuals ...

Ok I am done now

Thanks rickos

Originally Posted by CodyB

This gives me goose bumps that go back to the 60's and 70's, too bad it cant also give me back those days

one can dream but has this new generation been polluted by mass video games and taken too much of what is fed them as truth through the media over the years and really dont care ??

We were not polluted by TV yet and the power it holds, the truth was far easier, many still had 3 channels and no color TV's yet, you did not hear DAMN on TV then but shows now have words in them that are BANNED from public forums such as this

It will not start from the youth this time, they have become fat, lazy and content, not to mention too much like robots even though they like to think they are all individuals ...

Ok I am done now

Thanks rickos

Am I to assume you lived the George Carlin days and times?

Originally Posted by rickos69

Am I to assume you lived the George Carlin days and times?

Life's journey is not to arrive at the grave safely in a well preserved body,
but rather to skid in sideways, totally worn out, shouting '...holy sh!t ...what a ride!'

and what a ride its been so far

I think those times took away the innocence and ignorance.