Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Bob the Trader

I'm really newbie here. But could anyone tell me what the hell has happened on the market in the past minutes? I just can't see the reason to such movements.

Wild ride huh? Did you catch the news release? Indecision as big money positions.

Not a good time to be trading as all rules known to me liable to be broken. I made some money but I was a bit whiteknuckled for a bit. I immediately wrote myself a note and stuck it on my monitor...."DO NOT TRADE MOVEMENT! Only trade analysis." which is kind of hard for a trigger happy scalper like myself to do. It's no fun being down 75 pips in 3 seconds.

Hey Tom, Do the big dog's just wait until this whole week is over and take their positions or do they make them here as the week goes by? Thanks as always.

Then I guess tomorrow we will see something similar or EUR European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision isn't that important?

Originally Posted by Liberty32

Hey Tom, Do the big dog's just wait until this whole week is over and take their positions or do they make them here as the week goes by? Thanks as always.

While they all may do things a little differently, I think that as a group that the big traders will adjust their position in anticipation of this week's loaded economic calendar. That means probably taking some of their positions out of the market or adjusting their protective stop level. What most will not do is to put new positions on until after the Nonfarm Payroll release this Friday. That results in lower volume which can lead to increased volatility. Professionals get that way because they are traders and not gamblers. If they cannot identify and limit their risk, they will simply not get into a new trade. I think that many have just taken the week off from trading and will return next Monday.

Originally Posted by Bob the Trader

Then I guess tomorrow we will see something similar or EUR European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision isn't that important?

It is that important and we should also be aware of that decision. But first we have the Bank of England's decision to deal with, which is just as important. We then end the week with the biggest one of them all in the US Department of Labor release of the Nonfarm Payrolls. It just keeps getting better!

Thanks to all of you it seems to me it will take much more time for me to learn enough to trade safely.

Originally Posted by wwwin

Well I suspect that it will trade sideways until Friday's NFP, because even though today's decision gives the bulls some power, the NFP numbers, if bad, will cause risk aversion and dollar advances.

Probably. Though the BoE's decision tomorrow should cause some shaking

...here is a 5 minute chart of the price action.

The volatility apparent on the first two candles after the announcement graphically show why news releases like this are such a challenge to trade.

From 2:15 until 2:20 the EURUSD pair moved very quickly within a range of 61 pips in those 5 minutes. Within that 61 pip range, there was quite a bit of random movement; it was not simply a straight shot up and down, open to high and then a close. It is that in between randomness that can wreak havoc on entries and exits.

From 2:20 to 2:25 the pair again moved smartly within a range of 80 pips but this time it moved to the downside. Again we can tell by the long candle body and the long wicks that there was extensive movement within the second 5 minute time frame after the announcement.

Given the number of announcements coming out the rest of this week, each with the potential to move the market in dramatic and random fashion, all traders need to be aware of the impact this can have on their trades.

Input from anyone, especially anyone who traded the FOMC release today, is welcomed...

ON THE 1H CHART

It's been rough this week for me, mostly flat. Took 50 pips on my only trade this week riding from 1.48000 to 1.48500. I'm watching the 100% retracement level of the most recent downswing (11/2-3) for some short-term support followed by the 38.2% of the new upswing (11/3-4) as secondary support. I highlighted the 50% retracement - of the 11/3-4 upswing - level as a key point for me to watch for either a possible bounce or punch-through in the advent of further downward movement. I'm also watching the 100% level of the new upswing as short-term resistance which, judging by an upcoming MACD/Signal line crossover and long-term stochs sticking to the roof, we may not touch until later tonight or early tomorrow morning. If we do move downward and indicators coincide with direction I'll probably go short @ 1.48300 after confirmed breaking of both the uptrend line and the 100% retracement of the 11/2-3 downswing. However, I'm also thinking if the "rainbow" flips entirely, we're probably in for some more climbin'. We'll see!

eurusd hourly chart now at 50% retracement of wave 3 and previous resistant turn support (blue line).
Will it hold and become wave 4 for the wave 5 push up?

my 2 cents

Not to trade news was one of the first lessons I ever learned. I have found that it is nigh on impossible to guage a immediate reaction and then the counter-reaction at these times. However, inside every trader there is a suppressed gambler and I confess I sometimes spread bet £1 a pip if I am feeling in one of those moods . . . needless to say my success/failure rate is a 50/50 constant and you will all be happy to know that my account is some £26 in the black after yesterday's roller coaster. You have to have a little fun now and again . . . . the drinks are on me . . . cheers to all

FOMC out of the way, but ofcourse there is something else coming up.
Before you know it its X-Mas time and market will be gone.
EUR USD is dead meat this year, and that's not going to change all of a sudden. Better to look elsewhere, ANY JPY for example.



Dollar is still toast, so if any: be short the buck.
GL

Originally Posted by tiktok

Not to trade news was one of the first lessons I ever learned. I have found that it is nigh on impossible to guage a immediate reaction and then the counter-reaction at these times. However, inside every trader there is a suppressed gambler and I confess I sometimes spread bet £1 a pip if I am feeling in one of those moods . . . needless to say my success/failure rate is a 50/50 constant and you will all be happy to know that my account is some £26 in the black after yesterday's roller coaster. You have to have a little fun now and again . . . . the drinks are on me . . . cheers to all

My sentiment exactly....Here is a chart of my white knuckle experience.

Well there you have it....I wish I would have played this mornings NR. Nice and controlled movement. With appropriate SL a nice and easy 40 to 50 pips could've been snagged and put into the larder. Oh well.

I think i'm going to start keeping record of these so that maybe i can pick up on a few things that would help trading the news.