Brad,
Connecting the daily lows of 04/22 and 11/27, trendline is now at 1.4830.
This is also a strong support level since 11/05. Daily SMA 50 is at 1.4875.
Thanks if you would explain why your stop is at 1.4725?
I eye-balled that stop using the daily chart.... The stop is located just a little beneath the rising up trend line on the daily chart... As price moves higher along the rising trend line, I will slowly move my stop up higher keeping it below the trend line... The logic in stop placement is this ---> If the market breaks below the rising trend line deffinitively then it will hit my stop... If the market chooses to ride higher along the line, then I stand to profit.. A very simple approach...
Who do you think E/U Bear is among us here ??? I havent come across one yet
You might want to double check what some of the FXCM analysts have been saying for several months... I mean some of these guys having been calling for a top to this EUR/USD bull rally since it began and they've been wrong every time.. Don't fight the trend.. Ride it... How much more simple can it possibly be right ??
Hmmm ok, I hardly read their Trade Suggestions as I find theirs' way different than my own analysis.
I'm still following my long term plan of 1.53xx as the Targets, and have had hold a lots of positions since quite a long time now (while taking profits at the Resistance lines) and this is the chart (from last month) that I think is still a valid one.
If anything changes, I'll change my targets too.
Good luck to everyone.
Originally Posted by brad_1199
You might want to double check what some of the FXCM analysts have been saying for several months... I mean some of these guys having been calling for a top to this EUR/USD bull rally since it began and they've been wrong every time.. Don't fight the trend.. Ride it... How much more simple can it possibly be right ??
Take a few minutes and listen to the following radio broadcast on youtube... The U.S. Seante was told behind closed doors March 13th 2008 the U.S. Dollar would begin to devalue to nothing among other things.... Have a listen ---->
USA looks in such bad shape that it will never recover, politicians seem to be deliberately destroying their own country. I cancelled my subscription to Bob Prechters Elliot Wave Theorist last week as I think he is completely wrong on the dollar (however if the dollar does rise before year end I will gladly eat my words and consider re-subscribing)
that radio broadcast is scary: why don't the people do anything?, we would have riots in Australia if this happened, then again we are fined if we DON'T VOTE
USA looks in such bad shape that it will never recover, politicians seem to be deliberately destroying their own country. I cancelled my subscription to Bob Prechters Elliot Wave Theorist last week as I think he is completely wrong on the dollar (however if the dollar does rise before year end I will gladly eat my words and consider re-subscribing)
that radio broadcast is scary: why don't the people do anything?, we would have riots in Australia if this happened, then again we are fined if we DON'T VOTE
As for Bob Prechter.. His call for a bullish U.S. Dollar absolutely caught me off guard.. The turn has not shown itself yet if he's right... However, when Bob Prechter speaks I listen... But I rely on my own technical analysis for trading.. And as of right now, it's a bearish USD forecast until further notice...
Not sure if you saw the video links I posted in a few forums here last week, but if you haven't, take a look at these videos ----> There is a broad agenga to collapse the U.S.A. and create a new country known as the North American Union which will be The United States including Canada and Mexico... There will be a new currency known as the Amero that will replace the currencies of all three countries... And while all that may be hard to digest, imagine this... It's only a stepping stone toward a world government, and world currency..
These videos are 2 hours a piece, but they're good.. Take the time to watch them...
As for Bob Prechter.. His call for a bullish U.S. Dollar absolutely caught me off guard.. The turn has not shown itself yet if he's right... However, when Bob Prechter speaks I listen... But I rely on my own technical analysis for trading.. And as of right now, it's a bearish USD forecast until further notice...
I agree, owning a business and dealing with a lot of land developers in the Western US the economy here is much worse than people realize. Our dominant media is in denial as well.
I think what Bob was pointing out, is that the US dollar is artificially stimulated to the point that it might be awhile before it falls genuinely off the track. I'll have to watch that one again tho...
The EUR/USD just touched 1.50800 in line with your chart. Nice!
I agree, owning a business and dealing with a lot of land developers in the Western US the economy here is much worse than people realize. Our dominant media is in denial as well.
I think what Bob was pointing out, is that the US dollar is artificially stimulated to the point that it might be awhile before it falls genuinely off the track. I'll have to watch that one again tho...
The EUR/USD just touched 1.50800 in line with your chart. Nice!
Indeed.. EURUSD has opened the week with quite the bullish tone... I'm up nearly a hundred pips since the open already Gotta luv iT
All you EUR/USD bears out there beware... I'm ready to take your money !! This is a screen shot of THE EUR/USD DAILY CHART and a long position that was just opened... Stop is in place at 1.4725 -//- Target is 1.5500 ... Risk to reward ratio is (1 : 2) and attractive..
As price moves upward I will be looking to move my stop to break even...
As long as this up trend line on the daily chart holds, the bulls are in control 100% and i like those odds...
Hello, More profits to you and me! Can I ask you: is your forecast a long-term target? Would you recommend to sell EUR at 1.5500?
All this information is interesting, I was supposed to do a workout and got caught up listening to Prechters interview recorded on 27/11, thanks for the other links Brad_1199, I'll give them a go tonite, better go and hit those weights.
Hello, More profits to you and me! Can I ask you: is your forecast a long-term target? Would you recommend to sell EUR at 1.5500?
Thanks in advance
1.5500 is a medium term target (4-8 weeks time)... And I would only recommend selling EUR/USD once a top is in place.. For now there is no top in place and expectations are for bullish continuation...
All you EUR/USD bears out there beware... I'm ready to take your money !! This is a screen shot of THE EUR/USD DAILY CHART and a long position that was just opened... Stop is in place at 1.4725 -//- Target is 1.5500 ... Risk to reward ratio is (1 : 2) and attractive..
As price moves upward I will be looking to move my stop to break even...
As long as this up trend line on the daily chart holds, the bulls are in control 100% and i like those odds...
hi brad The downward EURUSD reversal that we have been looking for appears close to finally materializing. Prices have put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick formation Candlestick Summary | Forex Technical Analysis
MY ENTRY POINT WILL BE AT EUR/USD 1.48 Long with tight stop
Originally Posted by arodriguez
well, I am back to business and I would like to share some thoughts with Bilstein (and you all) about my interpretation of MACD.
Originally Posted by arodriguez
Bilstein, it’s very interesting how you are trading the Zero-line crossovers. MACD is my preferred indicator because it measures the trend direction and its momentum. good for swings... In this example I will use 1 hour time frame. I always made my analysis in daily chart, then look for opportunities in 4 and 1 hour charts.
Point A is the "ZL crossover" that Bilstein is talking about. This is a selling signal if Daily MACD is trading below the Zero-line. Of course, one could take it if market is in range trading or consolidation. In my interpretation, MACD trading above the zero line is a bullish scenario. Bearish positions will be favored if daily MACD is trading below the zero line. In this case, the bearish move is confirmed after closing below the 100-sma. Target point? It’s up to you, but a positive “SL crossover” at point 1 is good signal for, at least, to take partial profits.
The signal line crossovers (SL crossover) at points 1,2,3 and 4 are good for range trading. Points 2 and 4 are forming a double top, in agreement with price action, but points 1 and 3 are showing a positive divergence. In this case, bullish positions are favored. Later on, this positive divergence is confirmed by points 5 and 6.
Point B is very interesting. As market went short at point A, then a double top was formed at point 2 and 4, market takes the “trend continuation” (TC) pattern at point B, in agreement with strong resistance at the 100-sma. Once the MACD is trading above/below the zero-line, in my opinion, a TC is the most powerful signal. In this case, Point B signal is fighting against the positive divergence and the bearish move is stopped at the bottom of recent range.
Point 6 is a new SL crossover, confirming the positive divergence. Time to go long… time to look for a good entry. Point 6 is followed by a ZL crossover in agreement with the break of 50 and 100-sma. Point 7 is the key here. This point is forming a new high against point 4. MACD is showing momentum, bullish pressure… 100-sma holds… and a Bullish TC is formed. As result marked breaks the range.
Point D is unable to hold the bullish move. Bearish signal is given by a ZL crossover. Counter-trend signal? Yes, it is. Daily is still trading above the zero-line, and 4-H MACD is trying to form a bullish TC… umm… I guess market wants to go up…
Hope this helps to better interpretation of MACD. Any feedback is welcome…
A.
Even FXCM has been wrong since this summer 2009 (May to now) but many of their short terms set up base on 1:2 risk reward ratio has been realized profitable.
I draw the green box showing the RSI making higher high and higher low. MACD trading above the zero-line.
MAE 200 showing bullish and MAE 100 cross over above MAE 200 showing buying signal.
But what worries me is I remember the nightmare from 2008 summer. EUR/USD were trading above 1.60 and crashed with no supports. there were familiar warning signs. Warning sign may show now but the move won't take place until 100 days from now. (chart on 2007-2008 rised and crashed on EUR/USD)
All the tech analysis tools that we have are lagging. the analysis did not confirm the bearish move until MAE 100 crossed over 200 (confirmed at Oct. 2008) after a huge crashed on EUR/ USD. Large bullish actions from the beginning of 2007 to mid-2007.
Bearish sign had been formed around April 2007 but did not move until late July 2007.
Now, we are at this moment of great uncertainty. Will the USA recover faster than the rest of the world or will the stimulus plan dig the USA into a bigger hole? There were theories proven that the FED had contributed to the depression by stimulus plan. And revolutionary war has stopped the progression and domination of France in Europe, and WW1 and WW2 had stopped UK from world super power. With all those thoeries and history, they all pointing to the fall of USA. The worse has not come for USA, yet. But how about the rest of the world? What are other nations' problems?
I don't know how far will the bullish move last for EUR/USD... FXCM is heavily adverse shorting the pair, but MAE 200 AND MCAD is showing longing signal and also the current movement is bullish but it is Thanksgiving week... trading volume is low... false breakout are more likely to happen on hoilday.
The best thing to do for me as a trader is not to trade at all. But I am unwilling to close my losig positions. I hope that EUR/USD will go down to 1.48 for me to cover. unprofessional choice but if EUR/USD went above 1.52, I will short USD/CHF to hedge it, as a mean to stop lost from shorting EUR/USD pair
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Originally Posted by brad_1199
Posting Permissions 
Nice!
I'm up nearly a hundred pips since the open already 
