Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Franosh

Both Euro and Cable have MTD low due near year end/around Christmas. It will be interesting time, should one want to indulge in holiday trading. The first chart is Cable, the second Euro.

Franosh,

what charting software will give you these Delta counts? Obviously There is no MT4 indicator avaiable ... Or is there any

Originally Posted by asherewt

Franosh,

what charting software will give you these Delta counts? Obviously There is no MT4 indicator avaiable ... Or is there any

Hi, Asher. That's Delta Graphics, from the Delta Society, which gives original Delta solutions. Or you can use Kirby's reports (google Kirby Cooper, his Delta thingy covers many markets since you trade on so many fronts).

Edit: I don't think you can find any MT4 indicators for it. Delta is patented stuff, so one can hardly find even free materials on the web for it. Personally I don't think the ideas behind it are any sort of great discovery, but that's how Wilders chose to deal with it.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

It stands for Intermediate Term Delta.

Here's more info on it: The DELTA Phenomenon - Delta Market Trading - Predictive Stock and Commodity Market Analysis and Trading Tools

Thanks Sean. more reading to do.

We could see as nice pop in the euro for the next 24-48 hours or so... it has now bounced off the 50 day ema on the weekly chart twice. If it breaks there is plently of support via the 100 and 200 day ema close under. Possibly 1.4590( the 38.2 retrace off the latest decline) is in the cards before the next decline.

Originally Posted by Geoff Cairns

Thanks Sean. more reading to do.

Sorry Geoff,

I was gone from my computer for the day and saw that you had asked me a question. : o

Originally Posted by ShipItToMike

Sorry Geoff,

I was gone from my computer for the day and saw that you had asked me a question. : o

Hi Mike,

Sean filled me in. More reading and decisions to make. Thanks for the reply. I appreciate the help & information that's available in these forums.

Geoff

The USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) comes out in 40 minutes. How can it change the situation? If it is lower than 2.8 or if it is higher then 2.8?!

Price has hit the 161.8% fib extension in EUR/USD which should bring wave 3 to an end... Now looking for a possible bounce to the 38.2% retracement to complete wave 4 ----

8 Hour Chart --->

Originally Posted by ShipItToMike

We could see as nice pop in the euro for the next 24-48 hours or so... it has now bounced off the 50 day ema on the weekly chart twice. If it breaks there is plently of support via the 100 and 200 day ema close under. Possibly 1.4590( the 38.2 retrace off the latest decline) is in the cards before the next decline.

Yeah, I was looking at something similar Brad......

Originally Posted by brad_1199

Price has hit the 161.8% fib extension in EUR/USD which should bring wave 3 to an end... Now looking for a possible bounce to the 38.2% retracement to complete wave 4 ----

8 Hour Chart --->

Well, according to Brad's chart...once we have a bit of a bounce upward...there will be more downside to go as we go into wave 5 afterwards. Wow!

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Well, according to Brad's chart...once we have a bit of a bounce upward...there will be more downside to go as we go into wave 5 afterwards. Wow!

Sean,

Do you think the the current fundamentals support the price to retrace to 4600 levels?

Euro zone reports are not encouraging and GDP report and home sales report are better... from US.

Originally Posted by NMV

Sean,

Do you think the the current fundamentals support the price to retrace to 4600 levels?

Euro zone reports are not encouraging and GDP report and home sales report are better... from US.

Overall, the Euro Zone still has better fundamentals than the U.S. Lower unemployment rate, a higher interest rate. HOWEVER, there are two things that are starting to work in the dollar's favor (and it's mainly the first one).

The U.S. inflation (CPI) rate is climbing faster than that of the Euro Zone lately. Also, the GDP is "less negative" in the U.S. right now than the Euro Zone recently.

Now with all of that said...I'd not judge what the market does in these last couple of weeks of the year as anything "real". The reason being...much of that will be the retail volume and not as much the institutional volume.

Also, of the institutional volume right now...they are having to unwind some positions and close them out for year end record keeping, etc and to go into the year end snap shot looking "less levered", etc. So that would cause them to sell/close some positions they believed in too.

So all of this "year end madness" makes it to where the last couple of weeks of any year tends to be a good bit irrational and erratic just due to those facts.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Overall, the Euro Zone still has better fundamentals than the U.S. Lower unemployment rate, a higher interest rate. HOWEVER, there are two things that are starting to work in the dollar's favor (and it's mainly the first one).

The U.S. inflation (CPI) rate is climbing faster than that of the Euro Zone lately. Also, the GDP is "less negative" in the U.S. right now than the Euro Zone recently.

Now with all of that said...I'd not judge what the market does in these last couple of weeks of the year as anything "real". The reason being...much of that will be the retail volume and not as much the institutional volume.

Also, of the institutional volume right now...they are having to unwind some positions and close them out for year end record keeping, etc and to go into the year end snap shot looking "less levered", etc. So that would cause them to sell/close some positions they believed in too.

So all of this "year end madness" makes it to where the last couple of weeks of any year tends to be a good bit irrational and erratic just due to those facts.

I was quite surprised to see such a drmatic move in this par. I have won and lost lots of trades on this pair. I can sometimes get attatched to this pair. But when looking at a few things I am wondering what could have possibly turned the pair down so sharply.

I had a few tidbits to consider when positioning myslef for the next two weeks.

We have lower intrest rates than Euro, and have no intentions of changing them either.

I hear on MSNBC that more than 2 million Americans have lost their homes this year. With another larger wave expected of 13 million. If we 'were in' a housing crisis then, imagine if that takes shape. It probably is the reason Obama has spoken out for banks to take extraordinary action to combat foreclosures.

Some predictors say that 2010 will be a bull run for near term at least. Will the correlation between this pair and the Stock markets unravel in the coming year. If this pair will return to the 1.20ish region the stock market would need to drop with it considerably as well. I am of the thinking that it will drop back to lows of this year, but maybe around the same time April Mayish of 2010(likely after we get 1st Quarter results without all the holiday sparkles to fluuf them up). If we kick off the new year with a decent stock rally, Euro/USD may follow back up for a bit. I guess a drop would coincide with another housing panic killing the market for a second time, and possibly triggering the latter part of a double dip recession. Again the CPI, or inflation index is rising, and that isn't good news for our unemployed folks here. Everything is following oil. Gas Food ETC.

I am thinking the seasonal data was a push to all this premature optimism in the US, once that fades we have no real reason to see a continuation of this percieved temporary recovery. I think the way rate remarks have been given kind of suggests that Bernanke if no one lese may have given thought that this could be a counterfit data stream.

Near Term, I am looking to buy major dips for retraces, and sell new highs for longer term goal targets. I moved to FXCM UK, and can play both sides now like I couldn't in the US, and this gives me options to test this strategy.

My question to you Sean is, could this move down have priced in institutional positions being liquidated. Meaning we could be oversold due to profit taking at year end?

Originally Posted by Uber FX nUblet7

I was quite surprised to see such a drmatic move in this par. I have won and lost lots of trades on this pair. I can sometimes get attatched to this pair. But when looking at a few things I am wondering what could have possibly turned the pair down so sharply.

I had a few tidbits to consider when positioning myslef for the next two weeks.

We have lower intrest rates than Euro, and have no intentions of changing them either.

I hear on MSNBC that more than 2 million Americans have lost their homes this year. With another larger wave expected of 13 million. If we 'were in' a housing crisis then, imagine if that takes shape. It probably is the reason Obama has spoken out for banks to take extraordinary action to combat foreclosures.

Some predictors say that 2010 will be a bull run for near term at least. Will the correlation between this pair and the Stock markets unravel in the coming year. If this pair will return to the 1.20ish region the stock market would need to drop with it considerably as well. I am of the thinking that it will drop back to lows of this year, but maybe around the same time April Mayish of 2010(likely after we get 1st Quarter results without all the holiday sparkles to fluuf them up). If we kick off the new year with a decent stock rally, Euro/USD may follow back up for a bit. I guess a drop would coincide with another housing panic killing the market for a second time, and possibly triggering the latter part of a double dip recession. Again the CPI, or inflation index is rising, and that isn't good news for our unemployed folks here. Everything is following oil. Gas Food ETC.

I am thinking the seasonal data was a push to all this premature optimism in the US, once that fades we have no real reason to see a continuation of this percieved temporary recovery. I think the way rate remarks have been given kind of suggests that Bernanke if no one lese may have given thought that this could be a counterfit data stream.

Near Term, I am looking to buy major dips for retraces, and sell new highs for longer term goal targets. I moved to FXCM UK, and can play both sides now like I couldn't in the US, and this gives me options to test this strategy.

My question to you Sean is, could this move down have priced in institutional positions being liquidated. Meaning we could be oversold due to profit taking at year end?

Yes, there's no doubt that institutions closing out year end positions is part of it. Also, the euro had been long overdue for a decent sized correction.

Now the EUR/USD sits close to its upward sloping 200 day SMA. See if that region holds or breaks.

If stocks crumble in 2010 as I suspect...that could cause a lot of unwinding of the dollar carry trade and actually boost the dollar for as long as the crash lasts. If so, the "anti-dollar" (the euro) would take it on the chin then.

I really think that this season's Christmas shopping, etc. will be really weak. So with banks not lending normally, corporate profits and retail/consumer spending being weak and inflation/costs creeping up...I don't see a rosy picture out of that.

How are stocks supposed to rise in that type of environment? It's going to be hard for them to expand their profits/earnings in that type of an environment. That's why I think a huge correction/crash could come out of it all.

If that scenario unfolds, then we will see dollar strength for as long as the crash lasts. Just my two cents.

Best time to buy GBP/EUR is about now. Best time to sell EUR/USD is around here for no bad surprises. Euro is metaphorically dead.