Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by bill2759

I meant the long term Trend. Maybe the Daily, but most definitly the Weekly.

Old Bill

Mr Bill,

I see now.

So I gather that you have no target, you work on daily and more preferred weekly, and get antsy (which I am thinking means nervous) after 30 pips gain yes?

I am agree that down is the longer term trend and so your suggestion of earlier is accepted. Where may I ask have you placed your stop orders then for 30 pips in either a daily or weekly basis is nothing.

Thanking you Mr Bill

My limit order was hit around mid-morning, TP was at 4349, had opened yesterday at 4254, so a nice little profit, I thought we were going to see another test of the 200 MA and was hoping to add to my position, but that never happened.

Once again I'll harp on US equities, SP 500 breached the top of its range today and in doing so made a ytd high, will be interesting to see how it plays out next week. As I mentioned before I believe we're going to see a false breakout to the upside (SP500) which will lead to false $$$ weakness, after the false breakout is realized we'll see $$$ strength again. It seems like it could be lining up well for the 4th and 5th wave (for you EW guys). 4th wave started with the testing of the 200 day MA and will get some legs with a false breakout to the upside in US equities, then the 5th wave will start once equities top out sometime in Q1 2010.

Currently out of the market, will stay out until next week. Everyone enjoy a nice christmas, I'll be pouring over my charts!!!

Originally Posted by CBiii

My limit order was hit around mid-morning, TP was at 4349, had opened yesterday at 4254, so a nice little profit, I thought we were going to see another test of the 200 MA and was hoping to add to my position, but that never happened.

Once again I'll harp on US equities, SP 500 breached the top of its range today and in doing so made a ytd high, will be interesting to see how it plays out next week. As I mentioned before I believe we're going to see a false breakout to the upside (SP500) which will lead to false $$$ weakness, after the false breakout is realized we'll see $$$ strength again. It seems like it could be lining up well for the 4th and 5th wave (for you EW guys). 4th wave started with the testing of the 200 day MA and will get some legs with a false breakout to the upside in US equities, then the 5th wave will start once equities top out sometime in Q1 2010.

Currently out of the market, will stay out until next week. Everyone enjoy a nice christmas, I'll be pouring over my charts!!!

BY the way your EW is up trend or down trend?

To me the current wave is A and wave B is about to start above the 200MA and 50% Fib

Anybody know what time the market shuts down for the holiday?

Originally Posted by Jeknotts

Anybody know what time the market shuts down for the holiday?

It doesn't shut down but there are so many banks around the world that are shut down for Christmas that the market almost comes to a stand still.

Originally Posted by FXspeculator

BY the way your EW is up trend or down trend?

To me the current wave is A and wave B is about to start above the 200MA and 50% Fib

My count is down, I think there have been quite a few people on this board that have a similiar count, maybe check the EW forum. However, if this is the start of B like you suggest then we'll certainly see a larger move up then if it is a wave 4. I can't post a chart right now, but if you're familiar with EW and this pair I'm sure you can see what I'm talking about.

One reason I do like my count (not really mine but you know what I'm saying) is that I don't see the US equities (SP500) making it much higher, when they start to drop this pair will drop with it, and if this were to be a wave B like you suggest then US equities would have to continue moving up substantially b/c this pair will probably continue to have a strong correlation with the US equity market.

One thing I try to do is find correlations and reasons as to why an EW will form or not form. Right now I think wave 4 is more plausible, but a wave B is certainly possible. Let me know if I need to try and clarify some more.

hey brad

i am wondering if there is a triangle breakout on the daily to the upside for eurgbp. targeting the previous high. i see this a possibility if we have a daily close above 0.9030. wat do u think

Originally Posted by losingtrader

hey brad

i am wondering if there is a triangle breakout on the daily to the upside for eurgbp. targeting the previous high. i see this a possibility if we have a daily close above 0.9030. wat do u think

Hello LosingTrader -- That's a two word combo I don't like to see -- Why are you losing ?? That issue needs to be addressed --- I am happy to offer any help I can if you have any questions---

As for EUR/GBP do you have a chart you can post ?? I would like to see what your looking at.... I see no reson why EUR/GBP should penetrate .9115 (The high price of December) --- Price action should remain below that level until an eventual further push into the down side in the new year ---

Originally Posted by brad_1199

Hello LosingTrader -- That's a two word combo I don't like to see -- Why are you losing ?? That issue needs to be addressed --- I am happy to offer any help I can if you have any questions---

As for EUR/GBP do you have a chart you can post ?? I see no reson why EUR/GBP should penetrate .9115 --- Price action should remain below that level until an eventual further push into the down side in the new year ---

hi brad yaa i wiped out 2 accounts so far and just starting with third one. my problem is clearly itchy fingers. so i end up taking big positions impulsively and small positions after careful analysis. i mostly make money on the small ones and lose on the big ones.

as regards my name here i intentionally kept to remind myself to be disciplined.

Originally Posted by losingtrader

hi brad yaa i wiped out 2 accounts so far and just starting with third one. my problem is clearly itchy fingers. so i end up taking big positions impulsively and small positions after careful analysis. i mostly make money on the small ones and lose on the big ones.

as regards my name here i intentionally kept to remind myself to be disciplined.

Thanks for the chart---- I think anything is possible but I strongly favor a short bias from here due to the shooting star on the monthly chart a few months back signalling a high probability top forming... Keep an eye on the up trend line on the daily chart, if price starts breaking lower through it, my bearish bias will be confirmed... If price starts to move up higher along the line then bulls will try to take price higher..

Trade with caution folks , in days of no volume you get some wild spikes!...Dollar may hand back some of the gains , I am trading the 5 min charts with great success
, must be quick!


HAPPY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE -

Bongoman

Hi everyone and happy holidays...

Wow what a boring market... when exactly are we expecting volume and some action again? (in the longer time frames)

Originally Posted by ..Asad..

Hi everyone and happy holidays...

Wow what a boring market... when exactly are we expecting volume and some action again? (in the longer time frames)

Asad, welcome to the trading community. Glad to have you posting with us.

Typically volume will be weak during the last couple of weeks in the year as the big institutions close out their books for the year. Once the new year opens up, they start to creep back into the market as the volume increases.

This is my take at what should be one of the main fx story for 2010.

Titanic forces are doing battle in this pair..

On one side we have the EUR and the unwinding of the carry trade, the weakening of the euro and indebtedness of member nations. This is the prevailing market force.

We also have speculative funds fleeing the US Dollar into the swiss franc.

On the other side is the valiant Swiss National Bank trying save off deflation and speculative buying of the swiss franc. There advances have been felt by many a traders.

The setup:

Looks like a line in the sand has been drawn from 1.4500 to 1.4300. Looks like a break or market upset could unleash violence beyond all recognition!!!

Speculators will be punished on both sides without a doubt.

Originally Posted by speculator84

This is my take at what should be one of the main fx story for 2010.

Titanic forces are doing battle in this pair..

On one side we have the EUR and the unwinding of the carry trade, the weakening of the euro and indebtedness of member nations. This is the prevailing market force.

We also have speculative funds fleeing the US Dollar into the swiss franc.

On the other side is the valiant Swiss National Bank trying save off deflation and speculative buying of the swiss franc. There advances have been felt by many a traders.

The setup:

Looks like a line in the sand has been drawn from 1.4500 to 1.4300. Looks like a break or market upset could unleash violence beyond all recognition!!!

Speculators will be punished on both sides without a doubt.

So if your count is right...the SNB's fight to weaken the CHF will lose out. Of course, that happens many times in the long run.