Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by NMV

Sean,

What is the scenario with Euro/jpy?

Euro is falling, but euro/jpy no?

The euro is falling against the yen...just not as fast (at the moment) as it is vs. the dollar.

Originally Posted by Fxchap77

Hello Sean,...

Please could you tell me why you think the down move right now would stop at 1.3870 and also pls tell if i am right that the move down is as a result of the interest decision tomorrow.

Fxchap, I don't have a particular place where I feel it will stop. The arrow points to a direction. The arrow could have ended anywhere. However, feel the break downward is genuine because the overall trend is down on the daily chart and this 5 minute chart broke a line as well.

As for the exact reasoning...doesn't matter to me as long as its going down and breaking technical levels like it is now.

One might speculate that traders are exiting any long positions before Trichet speaks and that aids the downward pressure...but that would only be speculation. Technical breaches, on the other hand can be defined.

Originally Posted by sandpipper

Last night I stayed up trading London, price was shooting up and blowing through many of my resistance levels on my various charts. In my efforts to figure out were the turning point might be I decided to pull a fib per my chart.....and low and behold we got a perfect turn on the 50. I may have to pull my fibbers more often.

Same here. I opened a short at .3997 in early London trade but closed it at break even soon after when I saw the conviction up to .4024 and because I hardly ever play 50% retraces.

When you look under the hood of the black box trading models in FX and beyond it's pretty clear why fibs predict market resonations well until the next fundamental force acts on it.

Originally Posted by sandpipper

Last night I stayed up trading London, price was shooting up and blowing through many of my resistance levels on my various charts. In my efforts to figure out were the turning point might be I decided to pull a fib per my chart.....and low and behold we got a perfect turn on the 50. I may have to pull my fibbers more often. Of course it was right at the 50 EMA (white line) and the top of the downtrending SHI Channel (green) which all in all was strong medicine.

Steve, what are those red and blue points on your charts?

Originally Posted by adam6655nyc

Steve, what are those red and blue points on your charts?

Looks like Barrys support/resistance. I use it too.

Originally Posted by Padawan

Looks like Barrys support/resistance. I use it too.

Is that like murrays lines?

Originally Posted by Padawan

Looks like Barrys support/resistance. I use it too.

You got to love Barry....he saves a lot of horizontal line drawing....

Barry the beancounter basically looks back in every TF and finds the S/R levels for each individual TF....

As a S/R Trend trader he saves me much work looking back and figuring myself. One of the things a computer can do faster and more accurately than a human....The human has to know what to do with them lines. Trust me I spare you guys my worst charts....charts that you have to grow into.

So hats off to Barry.

Originally Posted by adam6655nyc

Is that like murrays lines?

Not sure, unfamiliar with murry

Hey Sean, Just wanna say I wasn't arguing with your Eur/Gbp stance the other day. I just like to acknowledge any reason a trade could go against me. If you look at my charts from that posting I actually had a short position open. My question if are you still bearish on this pair? It did a double (almost tripple) top last night but is still taking it's sweet time to descend. (plus now that I look at it it kinda resembles a bullish flag.)

This is WEEKLY CHART of the dollar index, if it takes that line, everything else will take the support (OIL, GOLD, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD...ETC)

Originally Posted by Padawan

Hey Sean, Just wanna say I wasn't arguing with your Eur/Gbp stance the other day. I just like to acknowledge any reason a trade could go against me. If you look at my charts from that posting I actually had a short position open. My question if are you still bearish on this pair? It did a double (almost tripple) top last night but is still taking it's sweet time to descend. (plus now that I look at it it kinda resembles a bullish flag.)

Padawan, yes, I'm still bearish. Doesn't mean I'm for sure correct...but the larger daily trend is still down and the near term 5 minute chart looks bearish to me again as well.

So we'll see. We're in a larger consolidation on the daily chart that I think will break down and continue the downtrend. We'll see.

I'm sitting on about 45 Pips Profit in The EUR/USD pair. My TP is set at 139.00. It's come close twice. Should I take what I got or hang in there till it Pops. This has been my weakness, jumping out too early. What would Youse Guy's do?



Old Bill

Originally Posted by bill2759

I'm sitting on about 45 Pips Profit in The EUR/USD pair. My TP is set at 139.00. It's come close twice. Should I take what I got or hang in there till it Pops. This has been my weakness, jumping out too early. What would Youse Guy's do?



Old Bill

If this was my trade i'd take out half or 3/4 now remove my SL and see what happens at the important 3900 level....if it breaks down we go. If it turns and moves back towards your price just bail with 20 pip profit on the remaining half or 1/4. Great trade by the way, these are the kind of decisions that are fun.

Originally Posted by bill2759

I'm sitting on about 45 Pips Profit in The EUR/USD pair. My TP is set at 139.00. It's come close twice. Should I take what I got or hang in there till it Pops. This has been my weakness, jumping out too early. What would Youse Guy's do?



Old Bill

I'd close out some of the lots and leave some on. I'd move my stop on the remaining lots to at least breakeven if not better..to ensure some profit on that part of the trade too.

Done and Locked. Got some Profit and what's left still looks good. Thanks Sandpiper. I bow to your Wisdom.

Old Bill

Thanks to you too Sean.

Originally Posted by sandpipper

If this was my trade i'd take out half or 3/4 now remove my SL and see what happens at the important 3900 level....if it breaks down we go. If it turns and moves back towards your price just bail with 20 pip profit on the remaining half or 1/4. Great trade by the way, these are the kind of decisions that are fun.