Prediction from beyond the grave. Turns out I'm a much more successful trader when I don't pay so much attention to the forums. Or at least my only real slump in the past 2 years was when I was watching it religiously. It seems I second guess myself too much when I read the opinion of others.
Prediction from beyond the grave. Turns out I'm a much more successful trader when I don't pay so much attention to the forums. Or at least my only real slump in the past 2 years was when I was watching it religiously. It seems I second guess myself too much when I read the opinion of others.
Hello Padawan
Its my first time on and I am reading this comment from you. Very interesting. I have been working very hard over the last two years to fine tune my trading mostly on demo accounts. I do have a good understanding of how the market works but could use some help. It seems you have been doing well over the last two years with real funds I welcome u sharing your strategies and opinions with me. I have been looking at the Euro/USD and its definately bearish but I am not so sure its a good time to enter selling yet even thou the bullish pull back on small TF (time frames) 15m - 1hr were at the high percent turning point - the golden triangle .618 fib. My main concern is that on Larger TF 3hr - Daily the pull back was shallow approximately .382 Fib (price 1.3838). Normally when this is the case the market tends to go to the 1.27 or 1.382 fib extention and return to the AB boundry to retest C currently at 1.3838. That is exactly what I see happening at this time. Futhermore with the pound hit D extentions on all time frames and running into major support @ 1.5151 it too is due for a large bull run. Given the correlation in direction between the pairs Euro/Usd and GBP/USD it is cause for concern about selling at this time. I welcome your comments and those of others
I agree and I know several good traders who also think we are due for a proper correction, the first sign is a relatively strong weekly close in EUR/USD. Helping the bulls' case would be also a bullish AUD leading up to the RBA meeting. I think we might see a pullback to the 1.3550 support area, might not. If it holds we can trend higher in the first few days of the week. I think the ECB meeting is also on Thursday and the downtrend could resume after that, especially for the pound. The RBA rate hike is pretty much priced in so that can turn into a "buy the rumour sell the fact" event. Just my 2 cents worth.
Prediction from beyond the grave. Turns out I'm a much more successful trader when I don't pay so much attention to the forums. Or at least my only real slump in the past 2 years was when I was watching it religiously. It seems I second guess myself too much when I read the opinion of others.
Padawan, thanks for this great chart. It's really simple and self-explanatory.
For a while I was riding this bull run but I shorted the rally yesterday looking for a retrace to 0.8880-70 area, a bit early at 0.8930. I agree with your long term view as I wouldn't trust the EUR to better the pound for too long in this ugly sister competition.
Yes, there are lots of conflicting views on the forums and among the news, which makes it hard to stick to your plan. I used to hang around the forum a lot more in the first years, but lately I usually just post on the weekends and I think it already shows in my equity.
Have a lovely weekend and I hope to see more charts from you.
Its my first time on and I am reading this comment from you. Very interesting. I have been working very hard over the last two years to fine tune my trading mostly on demo accounts. I do have a good understanding of how the market works but could use some help. It seems you have been doing well over the last two years with real funds I welcome u sharing your strategies and opinions with me. I have been looking at the Euro/USD and its definately bearish but I am not so sure its a good time to enter selling yet even thou the bullish pull back on small TF (time frames) 15m - 1hr were at the high percent turning point - the golden triangle .618 fib. My main concern is that on Larger TF 3hr - Daily the pull back was shallow approximately .382 Fib (price 1.3838). Normally when this is the case the market tends to go to the 1.27 or 1.382 fib extention and return to the AB boundry to retest C currently at 1.3838. That is exactly what I see happening at this time. Futhermore with the pound hit D extentions on all time frames and running into major support @ 1.5151 it too is due for a large bull run. Given the correlation in direction between the pairs Euro/Usd and GBP/USD it is cause for concern about selling at this time. I welcome your comments and those of others
As i seem to do well for myself I'm certainly not one to take advice from. Besides I don't really even have a set strategy. . . The people to listen to for unbiased advice are definitely the moderators. . . and Brad . . .
After all I'm not yet a master, still just a reckless Padawan
Hi guys ! I have open position for this weekend and I was 2 short trading from 1.3500 1.3510 in eur/dolar.I am still holding my position but I am afraid about on sunday morning.Can anybody give me an advice what will happen ? are you waiting will it see 1.3740 ? because I will loose all of my money if it see 1.3740.I made a mistake about short and I couldn't turn back.I lost my strategy thats way I am waiting an advice with the reason.I lost half of my money and I am confused should I close my position or not !!! because I can not see sunday news.Thanks I am waiting for your opinions.
Nothing is clear right now, its more of a wait and watch situation so far. 1.3428 is an importat level to watch, if we break this the next support will come at 1.3184
Originally Posted by asherewt
Ive finally booked the profits for my EURUSD Short Trades. If Im booking my profits, its by no means a suggestion that the Trend is over it may be very much alive and we may even see 1.3184 as the possible Low. However for me, this was a decent profit Target area and I needed the money so that I can re-invest it in some other trades
I once again urge everyone to start looking at the Ichimoku and its MTF (multiple time-frame) Analysis approach, trust me you will have a hard time finding anything better than this ...
Hi guys ! I have open position for this weekend and I was 2 short trading from 1.3500 1.3510 in eur/dolar.I am still holding my position but I am afraid about on sunday morning.Can anybody give me an advice what will happen ? are you waiting will it see 1.3740 ? because I will loose all of my money if it see 1.3740.I made a mistake about short and I couldn't turn back.I lost my strategy thats way I am waiting an advice with the reason.I lost half of my money and I am confused should I close my position or not !!! because I can not see sunday news.Thanks I am waiting for your opinions.
It's really unclear right now, however it does appear that we may get a dip to the 1.3540 level (61.8% Fibo of 1.3450>1.3683 & Monday's Daily S1), even if this is the start of a larger correction up.
It maybe a good idea to take one of your postions off at that level and then watch 1.35 (78.6 Fibo of same range & psych level) for support to decide on the second lot. Good luck.
With the huge sell off in the Euro i think we might see some more profit taking over the next few days, so we may then be presented with another selling opportunity. Trying to predict where me might see some big selling interest,the major downward trendline may be hit around the 1.3720 area over the next few days, if this gets taken out the 1.4090 area is the next one i'd look at as this would be the .38 Fib off the November 1.5143 high to recent low and the 50 day SMA would be close enough to this too to act as further resistance. Long term short target 1.2715 which would be the 261.8 from the November high to 22nd December low sell-off. The 161.8 area of 1.3650 certainly attracted the markets interest.
On the other hand, an even simpler view would be the bounce last week from 1.3440 or so may be a solid bounce at the .61 Fib of March '09 low to high and we may go on to test last years high,time will tell.
Any thoughts?
Hey guys ! I am short with eur/usd from 1.3500 but something is going wrong with it! what is your opinion about the currency.I lost my diciplin.I need advice should I wait or not I will all if it come to 1.3740. I am waiting for your opinion what will happen in these days ? or will it see 1.3700 with the reason.Thank you for your opinion answers.
Steve thank you so much I am just learning new this forum I didn't see your answer thanks for your opinion.I am thinking about that to close my one position off and waiting to watch !
Hey guys ! I am short with eur/usd from 1.3500 but something is going wrong with it! what is your opinion about the currency.I lost my diciplin.I need advice should I wait or not I will all if it come to 1.3740. I am waiting for your opinion what will happen in these days ? or will it see 1.3700 with the reason.Thank you for your opinion answers.
My advice to you (and I do not know how much leverage you have in your account) is to close the shorts positions (both) why? because the market is slowly showing support (eur/gbp is moving since last week) eur/aud (did not break the 150 mark) eur/jpy which usually an indication is not falling, because any news about greece (positive news) will rock this thing up 200-300 pips (it will be opportunity to short once it gets to 142-144) and it can get there.
I am waiting to short too, but not here, the market showed support at 13450 twice last week, and it is at over sold territory at this level, very dangerous to short and or stay short here.
Sorry, to be negative...but it is the wrong trade here...if it does not take 13450 it will rock up. too many shorts...juicy to take it up a little and squeeze them. if you can survive the bounce, stay short, but no one knows how far it will go.
Last edited by adam6655nyc; 02-28-2010 at 06:45 PM.
Prediction from beyond the grave. Turns out I'm a much more successful trader when I don't pay so much attention to the forums. Or at least my only real slump in the past 2 years was when I was watching it religiously. It seems I second guess myself too much when I read the opinion of others.
I may be wrong but on longer term basis, I'm more inclinded towards a Bullish Bias for EURGBP. However few things needs to happen first:
1. Chikou Span should break the Kijun Sen Resistance
2. 9033 should be broken with a good confidence to confirm the Bullish Kumo Breakout on Daily and Weekly TF
3. 8877 needs to take responsibility and act as a Strong Kumo Support
If allt his happens then the TP can go as high as 9277 (short term) and 0.9766 (long term) ...
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Originally Posted by Padawan 
