Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

I need not explained or give more reasons. The chart will tell most of the story.

I will adviced be patient and sell the rallied.

Good Luck

Formal Education, Connections? These might help in the Goverment or Business Communities. The Forex Market on the other Hand is a Free for all, every man for Himself Proposition. It ain't Who Ya Know, but what You Know and sometimes feel about the Market. Young Men from the former Soviet bloc are certainly at a disadvantage in any endeavor in those Countries. The former System of Government is too permanently entrenched to allow any real competion and growth. Sure these Kids have to leave for the West if they want to make anything of themselves in the Academic or commercial fields. Still Trading remains as a good choice to make it without such drastic choices. The only thing I see that will destroy this Trading stuff is Government Greed, wanting to over tax and over regulate.
So I say to every Person that wants to get out from under restrictive social and goverment Regulations and scrutiny, become an Independant Trader, get wealthy by yourself, and the Heck with all of the people who would drag you down.
I'm sorry I didn't try it myself while I was a young Man.

Snooze!!!! Have you ever seen such a boring Market? Even Scalpers would have a hard time pulling 5 Pips out of it.

Originally Posted by Dimake

Yea, again I agree. Theoretically speaking it's very easy, maybe in your country it's easier, but here, trust me it's very hard to get a connection. All those "big fishes" knows each other and it's very difficult to enter into their circle. And in relation with part 3 I totaly agree :P
Good luck to you also

Getting a good college education helps you whatever you do in life - its just sad that it has become so unrealistically expensive for so many people in the US

Well said Mary ..

Unfortunately that all around the world these days.

Originally Posted by Mary R

Getting a good college education helps you whatever you do in life - its just sad that it has become so unrealistically expensive for so many people in the US

Originally Posted by Mary R

Getting a good college education helps you whatever you do in life - its just sad that it has become so unrealistically expensive for so many people in the US

In France, good luck to be accepted, even if you're ready to pay tuition fees. (5000 to 17000€ a year)
Even if you have the equivalent to A's everywhere when you're finished with high school, they'll find it easy to tell you : "no, you're too bad. Make better and we'll see next time". I know many brilliant students that are completely lost because they don't know how harder they can work.

Don't know if things are so rude in the US, but this would be a sign that EU has a weaker background than the US though its GDP is much higher.

See if the market doesn't break up in the 1.3700's before today's close. If it doesn't, it provides extremely bearish signal. In the alternative scenario, I wouldn't recommend to sell into the rallies for it might accelerate a stable upward trend.

Originally Posted by asherewt

Well said Mary ..

Unfortunately that all around the world these days.

Ash, Hope all is well with you
What is your take/view on eur/jpy?

I know that hardly anybody would believe me but it's exactly the opposite here Downunder (Australia and New Zealand). No matter how bad the kids are here they will tell them that they are just wonderful and you wouldn't believe some of the people that study at our universities...then a lot of them also get their fees paid if they were born into the right ethnic group ;-P. I'm not complaining though because I know what it is like in Europe, if we stayed there none of my kids could have got the wonderful opportunities available to them here. OK, they are clever kids but I'm amazed to see the doors that open for them, even for my autistic boy who was able to set his sights on becoming a music teacher. I'm ever grateful to these two countries.

Originally Posted by AjsooOO

In France, good luck to be accepted, even if you're ready to pay tuition fees. (5000 to 17000€ a year)
Even if you have the equivalent to A's everywhere when you're finished with high school, they'll find it easy to tell you : "no, you're too bad. Make better and we'll see next time". I know many brilliant students that are completely lost because they don't know how harder they can work.

Don't know if things are so rude in the US, but this would be a sign that EU has a weaker background than the US though its GDP is much higher.

See if the market doesn't break up in the 1.3700's before today's close. If it doesn't, it provides extremely bearish signal. In the alternative scenario, I wouldn't recommend to sell into the rallies for it might accelerate a stable upward trend.

Originally Posted by DailyFX Analyst

In our weekly trade or fade we argue that this week may see a rebound in the dollar if for nothing else then for technical reasons alone. The currency is grossly oversold with sentiment widely bearish and in these type of instances even a small upside surprise could trigger a powerful move.

Today we have Consumer Sentiment and Existing Home Sales. If we get better than expected results we may see a test of the 1.3500 figure as shorts try to push the pair lower and probe for the many stops scattered at that level.


What do you think will happen today?

I don't think it will test 1.35 before it test 1.38, but I am keeping my short positions at 1,35 s hoping not catching margin call at 1.38.

Originally Posted by AjsooOO

In France, good luck to be accepted, even if you're ready to pay tuition fees. (5000 to 17000€ a year)
Even if you have the equivalent to A's everywhere when you're finished with high school, they'll find it easy to tell you : "no, you're too bad. Make better and we'll see next time". I know many brilliant students that are completely lost because they don't know how harder they can work.

Don't know if things are so rude in the US, but this would be a sign that EU has a weaker background than the US though its GDP is much higher.

See if the market doesn't break up in the 1.3700's before today's close. If it doesn't, it provides extremely bearish signal. In the alternative scenario, I wouldn't recommend to sell into the rallies for it might accelerate a stable upward trend.

It is education that helps one in life in no end, not college education. For most of the not-so-brilliantly bright which is the majority of the population on planet earth, 'college' or 'university' education is only a place to either network or get brainwashed to enslave themselves for the system by acquiring an overpriced status differential. Those who have 'degrees' are most often not the most cultured and civilized people. I agree with old Bill. Bill, were you in the marine (Semper Fi)?

The cross has fallen off of a cliff over the past few weeks with the market in a freefall and now looking to test critical psychological barriers by 1.4500. Weekly and daily studies are now highly oversold and the market is in desperate need for some corrective relief. Previous tests of support by 1.4500 have often been met with some very solid buying, and we would look for this barrier to once again act as a formidable support on dips. While we would not rule out the possibility for a break below these barriers on Tuesday, we will happily wait to buy the dip below the figure in anticipation of a major bounce. STRATEGY: BUY @1.4490 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.4420. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON TUESDAY). POSITION SIZE SHOULD BE 3X EQUITY.

All my best,

Joel

I am of the opinion that the major tops and bottoms of a market are determined by the fundamentals of that particular market. I also believe that it is the technicals that show us how we get between those two points. So I am of the opinion that is the economic calendar that offers the first hint of a potential trend change.

The most important factor in the value of a currency is the interest rate environment of that country/zone. Higher interest rates usually lead to a higher currency value while lower interest rates usually lead to a lower currency value. The interest rates of each country/zone in the pair and their relationship to each other is also of great importance.

When I look at the EUR/USD daily chart, I see a strong downtrend. This means that the USD is stronger than the EUR. While there are many factors involved, we know that the European Central Bank (ECB) does not seem interested in raising rates while the US Federal Reserve has already raised the Discount Rate once. That may be enough for now, but today we may find out more about what they think when the FOMC, which is the Federal Open Market Committee, the group that is responsible for that decision at the US Federal Reserve, gives us their thoughts today at 215PM Eastern.

If the FOMC gives the impression that they may raise rates at some time, the downtrend should remain intact. Even if they announce that their opinion has not changed, that would not change the trend of the EUR/USD. The only event that may change this downtrend is that the FOMC lowers rates or gives the impression that this is a possibility or if the ECB gives the impression that they are likely to raise interest rates. We are not likely to see either of those two events today. So we should expect the downtrend to remain intact after today's annoucement.

However, that may not mean selling pressure at 216PM Eastern. Markets seem to get a kick out of catching as many people as possible leaning too far in one direction by moving in the other direction. The expectations of traders are always key here and there is really no way to measure that until you actually see it play out on the charts.

Professional traders will actually take the time to read the FOMC announcement before trading or even wait for their analysts to pick it apart to make sure there is not some hidden meaning in their carefully chosen words. If it works for them, then it should work for us. So read the report first before making a decision. If you are not comfortable doing that, check out what the analysts at DailyFX have to say after they read the report. But be measured in your actions immediately after the release to make sure you aren't one of those leaning too far in the wrong direction.

Why the little spike up at 7 AM New York time? I could find nothing significant on the Wire.

Holy Smoke Alen!
I hang on to an open position longer than most. But never long enough to put My account in Danger. If you expect the price to come back to you when it's moved so far against you, you better have the Margin to back that up.
In any case, I'm with you. I'm holding a couple of Shorts too. But not from the depth of the 1.35 area.

Good Luck!

Originally Posted by alen

I don't think it will test 1.35 before it test 1.38, but I am keeping my short positions at 1,35 s hoping not catching margin call at 1.38.

Posted by Tom earlier, "I am of the opinion that the major tops and bottoms of a market are determined by the fundamentals of that particular market. I also believe that it is the technicals that show us how we get between those two points. So I am of the opinion that is the economic calendar that offers the first hint of a potential trend change."

Now Tom thats the best piece of Wisdom I've seen here since I started. I've always thought this way, but never expressed it so eloquently.

The interest rate comment is well noted. Another dynamic I've yet to understand is the play of central bankers & govs. They have the real power to direct markets - take intervention by Swiss in recent months for e.g. So... what is the advantage/disadvantage of stronger/weaker Euro, stronger/weaker dollar, for the respective bankers & govs. What do those guys (the 800 lb. gorillas) WANT to happen?!