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OK, gaps now filled. Let's see what the data brings.
I'm looking at the fixing. I'm thinking this downdraft as a set up to clear the longs. If there's no spike than I'll be rethinking. But if ther is a spike, then momos going to jump in.
Tucker w/ those surprising remarks put a damper on things on the pound.
My 2 cents
We are treading water in overnight trade as markets await US GDP. As we wrote in yesterday's piece, "Growth is expected to have slowed from 2.5 percent to 1.8 percent. We actually think the data could be a bit better since consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of GDP only worsened slightly in the first quarter. Retail sales in the first three months of the year averaged 0.6 percent, compared to average sales of 0.7 percent in the last three months of 2006." If we are correct in this assessment we could see a move to 1.3500 be early next week as dollar bearishness will subside. A really bad print however (1.5% or worse) and euro guns for the all time highs.
OK, now the all time high business is over w/. Going short.
cot vs fxcm?
Why does cot data say that market is record long on eur/usd where as fxcm indicator says that the market is short?
Originally Posted by analyzer
Out, done for the day.
Yes, indeed I was expecting the same scenario. One thing that I figured out after this mornings release is that Retail sales and Consumer Goods were not accounted for the month of March! So be it, it should be revised higher. Do you think the market will price that in? How long will you risk holding the position to find out?
Originally Posted by DailyFX Analyst
Hello everyone. This is my first post here. Let me thank all those, who created this great community and this site, and who actively participate! You are great!!
In my opinion EUR/USD is now in undecided condition. Look at the chart. We have resistance level from the 2004.12.26 at 1.3670-80. So if that level is strong enough – price will go down. Look at 1H chart – price has moved down already… I am going to wait for breakout of 1.3580 level – and then enter short. Just my 2 cents.
The March figures are estimated - they are not ignored, but they may be revised higher. On the other hand today's German Retail Sales were horrid suggetsing that the much vaunted recovery in the EZ has yet to see any string uptake from the EZ consumer. The EURUSD may still rally into the end of the week, but its strength will come from dollar's wekaness rather than any organic power of its own
Originally Posted by alexkazmarck
I just saw a clip including Kathy Lien from DailyFX about the EUR/USD and all of the tourists visiting the US:
Checking the COT reports for last week it seems the EUR is very overbought and I doubt it will hit above 1.3700 at this time. Two lots short with a stop at 1.3715. If it actually starts to go down as I expect it to, I will add to the position.
Its time now to investigate the action at 3550 / 3650 - See PDF attached.
Note that April's monthly candle will close tommorow. And unless something extremely dramatic occurs today, we have a roboust BULL monthly candle confirmed.
As outlined in the attached PDF, My bias is for a mild retraction to occur. As All daily, weekly, & monthly Cci graphs are in trending mode, (as narrated in pdf), I will accumlate all fib retractions into the April monthly candle - if & when seen.
23% @ 3577
38% @ 3521
50% @ 3484
61% @ 3444
78% @ 3394
I will not of course accumlate (buy) them all at once. But one X one on a weekly basis, using the methodology outlined in the attached pdf.
This should allow to mount a sizably position on each fib level, and bail out with little profits - or even at b/e- if the retraction continues. And hold in full force when the trend re-asserts.
The coming levels to accumlate this week are the <3521-77> area. The stops of course are below 3484. (prefreably 3460).
The retraction today didn't even make 23% (3577).
Indications of a Turn
Good insight on the COT report. We actually caught the same thing in our Weekly COT analysis
1) Sentiment is at an extreme, which signals a turn.
2) Technically, we RSI divergence (where RSI fell despite the all time high hit by the EUR/USD on friday)
3) Fundamentally, we are beginning to see some pretty bad data with the German retail sales falling sharply, consumer confidence deteriorating etc.
Although now represents good risk/reward. I wouldnt be a seller until we break Friday's 1.3586 low.
Where are my favorite threads?
Where are them? Why do they disappeared?
I miss them.
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