Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by cw1

Me too Mary, i have already shorted twice in the last hour and sold off at profit, I am now short again but i will defo close it before market closes tonight. Especially as news over the weekend could change things

there is a messy situation goin on in Korea thats puhin sap 500 and down jones wall street lower

what is going on in Korea? I haven't seen anything on the news yet

From an Ichimoku perspective on the 1H chart; after bullishly crossing the price curve yesterday and piercing both the Tenkan and Kijun sens, the Chikou span found resistance at the 23.6 Fib retracement (from 3/17 high) level today as price action pushed it's way into a thick Kumo. I'm still holding a short that triggered this morning @ 1.33750 and have suffered some minor draw down but am debating whether or not to hold out for the long term, bail out now or take profits if we get there. I don't usually care much to hold a position over the weekend, particularly amidst so much uncertainty but with a strong bearish Tenkan & Kijun sen crossover forming it's way on the daily chart I can't help but be tempted to hold as the last strong bearish crossover experienced on this time frame took 905 pips total. Soooo.. I guess we'll see.

This is a part of 1-m future price chart of E/U. Begin at 12:30 pm (ET/NYT)

A South Korean naval vessel has sunk in waters near North Korea after an explosion ripped through the ship and more than 40 crew are still missing.
South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported an explosion near the stern of the 1,200-ton ship and an early report suspected a torpedo attack from a North Korean ship.The incident comes amid heightened tension between the two Koreas, which remain in a state of war because their three-year conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, in 1953.

source sky news

Originally Posted by Bilstein

From an Ichimoku perspective on the 1H chart; after bullishly crossing the price curve yesterday and piercing both the Tenkan and Kijun sens, the Chikou span found resistance at the 23.6 Fib retracement (from 3/17 high) level today as price action pushed it's way into a thick Kumo. I'm still holding a short that triggered this morning @ 1.33750 and have suffered some minor draw down but am debating whether or not to hold out for the long term, bail out now or take profits if we get there. I don't usually care much to hold a position over the weekend, particularly amidst so much uncertainty but with a strong bearish Tenkan & Kijun sen crossover forming it's way on the daily chart I can't help but be tempted to hold as the last strong bearish crossover experienced on this time frame took 905 pips total. Soooo.. I guess we'll see.

Could you teach/show me some things about Ichimoku? I'd like to learn it.
Thanks

Teach you Ichimoku? Well, honestly I can say I'm not so much in a position to teach but I'd have to say, if you formulate accurate future charts you have no need for Ichimoku, lol.


I posted some links for you on your user profile page. Go check 'em out, some good Ichimoku resources. All you need to get started.

Originally Posted by Bilstein

Teach you Ichimoku? Well, honestly I can say I'm not so much in a position to teach but I'd have to say, if you formulate accurate future charts you have no need for Ichimoku, lol.


I posted some links for you on your user profile page. Go check 'em out, some good Ichimoku resources. All you need to get started.

Thanks, I'd like to learn more things to make my calculation more detail and more exactly.

While I haven't studied this method of charting in depth, It appears just as unpredictable as ony other charting method. however, the 4 hour looks like a consistant Winner.

i trade consistently on 1 min and 5 min charts daily. If your trading style is too scalp then this is in my opinion the best charting method but as long as you trade within the trend. Ive been in and out like a yo yo today

ive been long short sidewaysand now im back to short again.

Originally Posted by bill2759

While I haven't studied this method of charting in depth, It appears just as unpredictable as ony other charting method. however, the 4 hour looks like a consistant Winner.

4-h Chart of E/U shows It's going down to 1.32686.

All indicators are unpredictable as they are all based on price which is, generally, unpredictable. I utilize indicators to keep me on my toes with entries and stops. Contrary to what may be said about my charts, price action is primary, indicators are secondary as you can get multiple signals and conflicting signals, some strong, some weak so, you never really know. But they definitely provide great "reference points" for entry/exit provided said reference points coincide with one's risk/money management procedures.

Here is what looks like a nice shorting opportunity on the Eur/USD it is approaching a first test of a strong resistance line. I am expecting a failure. Of course anything could happen but the odds are in my favour I believe on this one.

News coming out of Europe are saying that an agreement has been reached on Greece's bailout. 2/3 will be loans from EU partners, 1/3 from IMF, and all failing countries will be bailed out. Risk sentiment is back in play.

This will be Euro positive over the weekend, but we'll see what happens Monday when Europe comes alive again. The Euro might go higher than 1.3450, so I'm out until I see a confirmation of downtrend continuation in 1H/4H charts.

USDX daily chart shows resistance at 82.0 (.5 Fib from 3/08-11/08), and if that's broken then 83.8 comes next. Trendline support currently at 80.5, which is the number that I'm watching for any real USDollar weakness.

This trend might continue until June-August, when the US housing market experiences further woes, and the Dollar looses its "safe haven" title.

Have a good weekend, all.

Originally Posted by martyman13

News coming out of Europe are saying that an agreement has been reached on Greece's bailout. 2/3 will be loans from EU partners, 1/3 from IMF, and all failing countries will be bailed out. Risk sentiment is back in play.

This will be Euro positive over the weekend, but we'll see what happens Monday when Europe comes alive again. The Euro might go higher than 1.3450, so I'm out until I see a confirmation of downtrend continuation in 1H/4H charts.

USDX daily chart shows resistance at 82.0 (.5 Fib from 3/08-11/08), and if that's broken then 83.8 comes next. Trendline support currently at 80.5, which is the number that I'm watching for any real USDollar weakness.

This trend might continue until June-August, when the US housing market experiences further woes, and the Dollar looses its "safe haven" title.

Have a good weekend, all.

I'll watch my eur /us short here to see how excited traders get to this Eur news. I'm skeptical but hey anything can and will happen.

Maybe we shouldn't be too surprised with the Friday rally. The swoop down from 1.357 was sharp and the bounce seems more like a normal corrective rally than anything else. This one could extend higher but as long as it closes below 1.357, we are on track to experience new lows. Though a close above 1.36 might make the recent fall to 1.327 seem like a false breakout. But only a move beyond 1.373 (50 day SMA) would put the current trend in jeopardy (short term).

However, at this point downside risk is greater and we are more likely to see a failure at 1.345 or 1.351.

Looking forward to your comments... & have a lovely weekend everyone.