Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Steve125

Here you go. It is a pay service, but they do give free trials. You want the S&P broadcast service.

|| Welcome to Traders Audio ||

thanks Steve

As usual, Cody is right on about mm. What good is having 10 winning trades and then blowing it all on one bad one. That was my pattern for the longest time. I took Cody's advice yesterday and stayed out of the market today since Sunday, Monday and Wednesday were kind to me. I think it is really good advice to learn that you don't always have to have a position. As for rebuilding after blowing up your account, that is what becoming a succesful Forex trader is all about. Hang in there, work hard and you will be back better than before.

Originally Posted by erikthered

EUR/JPY went down 1000 pips today... no comments.....

Sean I have a question. What makes the Yen getting more stronger than everyone else including the USD?. Maybe I should have posted this in USD/JPY, but I wanted to share the 1000 pips down of the EUR/JPY that was unbelievable...

Maybe too many posts in a short time but does anyone knows my question?

Thanks

and again... EUR/JPY 1000 pips down in one day... speechless...

Originally Posted by Renegade

As usual, Cody is right on about mm. What good is having 10 winning trades and then blowing it all on one bad one. That was my pattern for the longest time. I took Cody's advice yesterday and stayed out of the market today since Sunday, Monday and Wednesday were kind to me. I think it is really good advice to learn that you don't always have to have a position. As for rebuilding after blowing up your account, that is what becoming a succesful Forex trader is all about. Hang in there, work hard and you will be back better than before.

i agree with this too. dont just trade for trading sake right? take a slap, get back and climb aboard...a lot of traders that make mistake are because there trading for tradingsake and when in profit they let the market take it!! Cody is right too, MM is the key, know your limits too

Originally Posted by Renegade

If you have been following this forum for a while you will remember the period of March 2009 through December 2009 when the Euro was on a relentless climb against the dollar. During that 9 month period there were many people, including several Daily FX analysts, who kept looking for the end of the trend and attempted to short the Euro. Looking back, trying to guess when the trend was going to end and looking for shorts was the wrong move.

Now we are in a extended downtrend. It has lasted for approxamately 3 1/2 months now and was precipitated by a major fundamental change in the Euro's stability, namely soverign debt problems throughout Europe. Those problems are very real and will take years to resolve. As a result, the Euro is and will stay in an extended downtrend.

Like many major up and down trends, this downtrend will not end until extremes are reached. Those extremes can be identified by the masses asking "how much lower can this thing actually go, this is rediculous, somebody do something". When that sentiment exists, it will pushed even lower and then a reversal can take place.

Ok then, with the Euro, when will that extreme be reached. I remember trading Forex back in 2002 when the Euro was trading at 1.01-1.02. I believe that we can certainly get there and below.

I believe this because there are entities with massive Euro holdings, built up over the past 10 years. The entities with these massive holdings are now very concerned about their investment and are looking to drastically reduce their holdings. To avoid panic and a disorderly decline in the EuroUsd exchange rate these entities are slowly selling off the Euro. Therefore, every time the Euro rallies, it is sold by these larger players. As a result, the Euro is not going to move higher except for minor fibs during small player profit taking.

Now that the EuroUsd has moved below the 50 day moving average again, look for significant and rapid declines toward the 1.28-1.30 area over the next few weeks. I believe that we should be breaking through the recent low at 1.3267 by the end of next week if not sooner. Lets see what happens!

Not sure if anyone remembers this post on April 17

Originally Posted by Renegade

Not sure if anyone remembers this post on April 17

i remembered it, and yes totally agree, also i think it was cody that said we could meet parity

After the chaos and volatility of Todays Session, I'm inclined now to think like Steve. Stay away from the Market until Monday. That being said the 1.27 Area is looking like a nice spot to place a Short order.
No! ---- Forget I said that. Discipline Fool, Discipline!

Originally Posted by CodyB

posted elsewhere but relevant here


A friend of mine in the pit had been having a rough time of late when he asked me a typical question among us traders - How do I come back from a loss? Since he had been having a "rough patch" and not just one bad trade, I gave him the following advice that is to be used over a period of time.

First I asked him, "What does your trading journal look like - or maybe you don't have one?"
He didn't think it was necessary, which was his first mistake. It is critical to keep a trading journal.
In my journal I ask myself everyday "Did I follow my trading plan properly? Did I do anything wrong and if so, why?" If I did follow my plan correctly but I lost money, I am not hard on myself. Sometimes this happens! If I didn't follow my rules but still made money, however, that's a problem.
I highlight these days so I never repeat this fatal flaw. One of the worst things you can do is ignore your rules and make money, because then you feel that "winging it" is a good plan. It is not.

If this happens, you have to ask yourself; "Why didn't I follow my rules?" Was it lack of confidence in the system? Fear? Or did my ego want to be the hero that sold the high?"

If you lack confidence in a system, paper-trade it religiously and keep a massive amount of statistics on the outcomes. Be honest with each trade and if the results are good, immediately ban all second-guesses.
If you are playing blackjack and the dealer has a six showing while you were dealt a ten & a nine for nineteen, would you HIT IT because "maybe this time the dealer won't bust!?" Of course you wouldn't! You know that the long-term outcome of that decision would be certain disaster.
It is the same with trading: don't question a trade if the statistics show it's a winner over the long term.

Fear also exists when a trader doesn't believe in his system yet. Or it may just be the fear of being wrong, which is another ego-based problem. You have to let go of being right. Trading is about probabilities and making money; not about being right or wrong.

I've found that traders who used ego-base decisions to mess with their system or break their rules added little to no value to their trading. In fact it almost always hurts more than it helps. Trading for ego satisfaction is not a good idea, because your ego risks getting damaged during a rough trading patch.
I like to go back and look at my trades over the last week; the last month, to see how they performed. Am I repeating my mistakes? If I bought or sold too soon, I want to find out why. Be honest, and ask good questions: "What worked? What will I do differently next time? What was I feeling when I ignored that trade?"
Keep notes on trades you liked but didn't make. What held you back? Do you notice any patterns causing you to miss opportunities? FIX THEM!

My friend listened intently and took notes. He will be a better trader for it.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called experts.

Thanks for such a big wishdom.

Originally Posted by bill2759

After the chaos and volitility of Todays Session, I'm inclined now to think like Steve. Stay away from the Market until Monday. That being said the 1.27 Area is looking like a nice spot to place a Short order.
No! ---- Forget I said that. Discipline Fool, Discipline!

if it spikes up then its a possibility, i might just watch and listen to bloomberg though...tomorrow will be a big discipline day for me cos if i see a huge spike up i just cant help but short the pants off it !!!

I made some pretty good money this week but there is nothing worse than not following your own advice!! I wish I had shorted 4 contracts when I wrote that on April 17. Heck the Euro was at 1.35. My account would have loved that. I guess I should start each trading day by reading my own posts .

Cody that was a good post for those that have lost trades in there time,,,which is all of us at some point, on average i have 1 losing trade per week, but i can trade oever 5 trades per day with ease
(just my style works for me)...so we all have losing trades but its good MM to ensure they are not huge losing trades, those that have lost AND won trades today....listen to Cody

Originally Posted by Renegade

I made some pretty good money this week but there is nothing worse than not following your own advice!! I wish I had shorted 4 contracts when I wrote that on April 17. Heck the Euro was at 1.35. My account would have loved that. I guess I should start each trading day by reading my own posts .

Renegade, in your opinion, will the eurusd hit its 3rd daily support at 1.2484 and dip lower?

Originally Posted by Robert M

It took me a long time to figure out this myself. I blew two accounts because of this same issue. I have since never ever tried to pick a bottom or top. I only trade in the direction of a moving average. I don't follow use the moving average as a entry or exit point, but I always trade in the direction the market is going. Saved me a lot of headaches and a lot of lost money. Money Management is always vital, especially when you see crazy crazy days like today...

exactly!

never trying to pick a BOTTOM or TOP in such a damn day.

I only trust my own model... and make a good profit (14win/4lost in last three weeks, my fund doubled )

2 years ago I was an idiot, and finally and luckily, I realize this...

Originally Posted by Marah

Great now. All positions closed. Result is about $850 in total loss. Reason: "technical difficulties."

They gave me a number to call to close the trades. NO body answers!!


This is awesome business to do. Just give me your money and I will make sure you lose them all with our technical difficulties.

Marah,

I have a demo account and last week something strange happend to my account so I chat with them. They told me, because of the demo account, they don't keep record of my account. But they keep records of live accounts. They told me that when it is a live account and there is a technical error they will pay you back. So I hope you will get an answer. And also I am very curieus if this will happen. Hope to hear more from you. It is very sad to hear taht it happend to you. I wish you al the best
Wilma

There is some options expiration action that will be taking place over the remainder of this weeks trading so I would be very cautious when establishing positions because we may see some extreme volatility. If I do trade over the next 24 hours, it will just be some scalping using support and resistance lines, moving averages and fibs as entry and exit points (20-30 pip trades). Most if not all of my potential trades will be in the direction of the prevailing trend and we all know what direction that is!