Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Hope the trend upward stops.

Had to hurry off to rescue my dauher and grandson from car trouble today. Mytrade was half way to profit. Came back to find I'm in a hole. Was in a hurry and didn't place a stop. In short at 1.2606 currently 1.2706, now gotta hope the downtrend resumes.

Anybody got any good news?

Oh man, mechtech, I feel ya; I lost 400 bucks today because I was in a hurry and didn't place a stop. Lesson learned..I'll NEVER do that again! I guess the good news is you aren't alone?

I hit my euro shorts at 126 stop and I'm staying out tonight and tomorrow while I'm a little ahead. This market is driven with emotional waves. Like trying to figure out my wife sometimes.. :-) Time for a beer..

just observed a nice inverse H&S on eurchf

Originally Posted by smalleyes

just observed a nice inverse H&S on eurchf

Yep, but its almost to its minimum price target but yes, you are right.

Originally Posted by Paul Mason

I hit my euro shorts at 126 stop and I'm staying out tonight and tomorrow while I'm a little ahead. This market is driven with emotional waves. Like trying to figure out my wife sometimes.. :-) Time for a beer..

LOL on the wife

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Yep, but its almost to its minimum price target but yes, you are right.

Wow Sean, you are a tropper posting so late at night! Assuming your in the EDT zone - current time at 11:26 pm. Thanks for your on going input.

Originally Posted by Renegade

Not sure if anyone remembers this post on April 17

I believe this because there are entities with massive Euro holdings, built up over the past 10 years. The entities with these massive holdings are now very concerned about their investment and are looking to drastically reduce their holdings. To avoid panic and a disorderly decline in the EuroUsd exchange rate these entities are slowly selling off the Euro. Therefore, every time the Euro rallies, it is sold by these larger players. As a result, the Euro is not going to move higher except for minor fibs during small player profit taking.

Renegade, you can be 100 % right, but for 100 % wrong reasons. Your reason is NOT the reason the Euro declined. Generally speaking, forex markets are influenced short-term by technical factors and sentiment, medium term by an equal mix of technicals and fundamentals, and long term PURELY by fundamentals. This is why the U.S. Dollar has eroded steadily since the end of WWII (just look at the historical chart).

The U.S. Dollar is declining yearly as the global fiat currency. The reasons are the $ 100 trillion National Debt (on an accrual basis), the NET $ 3 trillion foreign debt, the projected annual 1.5 trillion budget deficits that depend on foreign goodwill for their financing, the decline of U.S. industry (that has shrunk 60 % since the end of WWII and has been replaced by 'consumption' that constitutes 70 % of GDP and GDP growth), the massive rise of the BRICS which average 7 - 12 % GDP growth year in and year out, the competitive manufacturing advantages of the Eurozone which easily out-exports the U.S., the U.S. annual $ 700 billion trade deficit (including an unprecedented $ 100 billion technology trade deficit!), the 23 % unemployment rate (U1 - U9), the massive bleed from military waste and, in short, all the signs of declining Empire in what will be known not as 'The American Century' but the 'Asian Century'.

As for short-term technicals, you guys (you included) are geniuses, but take a look at the 60-year chart of the Dollar ...

U.S. GDP growth will be anaemic during QIII and QIV 2010. I'm still holding on to my

June (30th) 1.32 Calls (which I'll ditch on the first major rebound)
Dec 1.35 Calls
Dec. 1.40 Calls.

I am 100 % invested.

Originally Posted by Firstfx

Wow Sean, you are a tropper posting so late at night! Assuming your in the EDT zone - current time at 11:26 pm. Thanks for your on going input.

I'm in the central time zone (Dallas) but yes, trying to be a trooper and make sure everyone knew what all went on and to spread the word as best I could.

We put you guys as priority #1 and if that means putting in a few extra hours in times like this, then that's what we do.

We want you guys to be the most informed in the entire industry.

mechtech you may want to exit your trade and wait until it hits 2830 and then re-enter short. I have a gut feeling that is where we are heading. May get a nice drop when Europe opens but we may get a nice pop too. I shorted a little while ago and got a bad feeling and bailed out even.

Originally Posted by Renegade

mechtech you may want to exit your trade and wait until it hits 2830 and then re-enter short. I have a gut feeling that is where we are heading. May get a nice drop when Europe opens but we may get a nice pop too. I shorted a little while ago and got a bad feeling and bailed out even.

i can't remember, when does Europe open?

Hard to burn off $300. I have margin to handle the pop, but it would be a headache if it went that high.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Yep, but its almost to its minimum price target but yes, you are right.

Hey Sean, how do you determine the minimum target price? Will it reach somewhere near the pre-drop level?

Parviz, I am not really a huge fan of the US dollar and I agree with you that the leaders of the US have really messed things up economically. However, I do feel that although the Euro was a great idea when first conceived, it is destined for failure because it is a born of a union of countries that have been killing each other for hundreds if not thousands of years. Although things are more civilized in the world today, the underlying feelings of hatred and disdain still exist. Eventually, the economic pressures will become to great and the union as it exists today will undergo radical change. That means that the Euro will lose its status as the "second reserve currency" and its value will dramatically fall. Eventually, I believe the Yuan will most likely take its place.

Mechtech, Europe opens up 12:00 Pacific time. 2830 is the 382 fib of the May 2-5 drop. Daily price has not visited the 5 day EMA in several days and that is very unusual. 5 day EMA is parked right about at 2830 too. Options are expiring tomorrow and may lead to some Euro buying. Therefore, I will stand aside and see how it plays out. If we do get to 2830, I will hit it hard short. If not, I will re-evaluate for Sunday night trade.

Originally Posted by mechtech

Damn, i can't remember, when does Europe open?.

Handiest little program for those of us with "old timers" disease.
http://www.forexmarkethours.com/fore...itor_v2.12.exe

If you go to their site the hours show in the browser window.

Regards,
TAfool