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View Poll Results: What impact will the ECB Rate Decision have on the Euro?

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71. This poll is closed
  • Send Euro Higher!

    19 26.76%
  • Send the Euro Lower!

    48 67.61%
  • Will have no effect.

    4 5.63%
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Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

  1. #33616
    Franosh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CodyB View Post
    Quants or no Quants the market is still going to move from one support/resistance point to another just as it did in this 'glitch', it just got there far faster than anyone thought.

    look where the EU broke from and where the 'glitch" took it to...no matter what role Quants played in it or will in future markets really does not matter...the market even in this chaos still stopped at prior resistance turned support, is this just a coincidence? does it have anything to do with Quants? I am not smart enough to understand all of that quant stuff but I can plainly see market mechanics and forex 101 at work. the market will move from one S/R point to another and it did just that. on to the next trade and the next S/R point.
    Cody, you were talking about trades and I was talking about financial systems. They are not the same. That's why I said it's a bit academic. It matters not to your concern but does to my interest.

  2. #33617
    swaza is offline Registered User
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    hi everybody! i have been reading a lot from this forum i think you guys are doing very well.i have come to join to learn more and also contribute,thanks a lot to everyone here.

  3. #33618
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    Quote Originally Posted by Franosh View Post
    Cody, you were talking about trades and I was talking about financial systems. They are not the same. That's why I said it's a bit academic. It matters not to your concern but does to my interest.
    told ya I didnt understand all that quants stuff...
    Don't Chase the market let the market come to you

  4. #33619
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    Quote Originally Posted by Franosh View Post
    Cody, you were talking about trades and I was talking about financial systems. They are not the same. That's why I said it's a bit academic. It matters not to your concern but does to my interest.
    Hey Franosh,
    Can't think of anyone better to fill us in on what is happening over there governmentwise. How soon will you have one, and who will be running it?
    Live Long And Prosper!
    Rickos.

  5. #33620
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    Parviz (aka, "PUTZ")

    Quote Originally Posted by Parviz View Post
    ....and short interest against the euro is at an all-time high, setting up a nice squeeze scenario. (ETF: FXE)

    Can any technicians here confirm this? I can't locate the short interest indicators the writer is referring to.

    COT (Commitment of Traders) can be found at the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) site.
    Commitments of Traders - CFTC

    Commercials are long 2-1 across the board and 3-1 sans options. Look on the MERC for EURO positions. Across the board here (long form):
    CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report - CME (Combined)

    Dollar figures will be found on the ICE stats. Commercials short 6-1 across the board. These are futures/options only, no spot.

    Your options. I find it odd that you are trading something that you don't understand. I say this because you had no clue why you gained when the underlying remained flat. You need to know exactly what you have and how it behaves to trade it effectively. Two main factors on options pricing are time and volatility. Time decay will nearly approach exponential close to expiry and volatility will affect price significantly. Do you have American or European style? Regular or SPOT? Be informed, know what they are.

    Re: your indicators comment.What is an indicator? All indicators (ex external data integration) are all based off of only three items; Price, Time and Volume, with the vast majority comprised of only price. Given this, all the information that is needed is a price chart. Also, only one oscillator need be used since they are based on the same basic data. Pick one and learn it, otherwise, "paralysis by Analysis" will be the result.

    I use one indicator, RSI, because it allows a quick visual of the information that I am after. This same info can be seen on candles and bars but takes more study to discern the info.

    Additionally, never trade an indicator! As far as I know, there is no exchange in the world that allows you to buy or sell an indicator reading. "Oversold/Overbought" levels as used in a traditional sense are pretty useless. They must be integrated into the overall picture. Take RSI for example (check the attatched 1-hr chart), where is the latest "Buy" signal? One very helpful item to watch are the green/red lines that I have placed; they indicate Zones. Check the daily and it should be obvious what they are used for and what these zones might be.

    This is a great page explaining the mechanics of RSI:
    Relative Strength Index (RSI) - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com

    Re: treatment of rioters in the US. I think you've seen too many propaganda pieces, or maybe you've been I.M.ing with the resident communist too much. "If there was 50 % unemployment in any European city as there is in Detroit the city would be (literally) on fire." Oh, so the correct response is to burn down your own homes and businesses? Our bad! Since we aren't doing what you suggest perhaps that is a clue that we will handle things better than you think? Abandoning the current socialist trajectory and vastly reducing the size and scope of government is the answer that I hope the masses realize sooner rather than later.



    TAfool
    http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd050810.gif
    http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0508101h.gif
    Last edited by TAfool; 12-20-2010 at 01:30 PM.
    Charts are never wrong, but the chart reader often is.

  6. #33621
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    Quote Originally Posted by rickos View Post
    Hey Franosh,
    Can't think of anyone better to fill us in on what is happening over there governmentwise. How soon will you have one, and who will be running it?
    It is a hung parliament but no-one knows who will 'hang' it. It is said that there are frentic talks this weekend. At best there will be news early next week if not next Monday. Hopefully the Conservatives can come to an agreement with Lib Dem to form a government, otherwise Labour will stay there after 13 rotten years. Labour are very keen to strike a deal with Lib Dem just to keep the Conservatives out. It is all an absolute and utter mess.

    However hung they are, a government will have to be formed before the Queen's speech on the 25th May.

    Tonny Benn (an old-time heavy-weight socialist) predicted that there would be another election within a year. The Brits are not known to be able to work with a hung parliament. That's not what the system and political culture here can cope with. Besides, in such economic climate, no effective governing can be had if they have to go bargaining every five minutes. If that's the case, forget about deficit cuts. We will all be screwed.

    Lib Dems have some pretty lunatic liberals on the far-left, Labour (with both moderate and hard-left) just wants to carry on spending and borrowing and dumbing down the country to get us to oblivion. The Conservatives are good for the economy and markets, but some parts of the country can't bear to even think about having it in the office.

    A nice picture, huh?

  7. #33622
    rickos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Franosh View Post
    It is a hung parliament but no-one knows who will 'hang' it. It is said that there are frentic talks this weekend. At best there will be news early next week if not next Monday. Hopefully the Conservatives can come to an agreement with Lib Dem to form a government, otherwise Labour will stay there after 13 rotten years. Labour are very keen to strike a deal with Lib Dem just to keep the Conservatives out. It is all an absolute and utter mess.

    However hung they are, a government will have to be formed before the Queen's speech on the 25th May.

    Tonny Benn (an old-time heavy-weight socialist) predicted that there would be another election within a year. The Brits are not known to be able to work with a hung parliament. That's not what the system and political culture here can cope with. Besides, in such economic climate, no effective governing can be had if they have to go bargaining every five minutes. If that's the case, forget about deficit cuts. We will all be screwed.

    Lib Dems have some pretty lunatic liberals on the far-left, Labour (with both moderate and hard-left) just wants to carry on spending and borrowing and dumbing down the country to get us to oblivion. The Conservatives are good for the economy and markets, but some parts of the country can't bear to even think about having it in the office.

    A nice picture, huh?
    So in fact, what you are saying is that the Libs have more in common (in theory) with Labour than the with the Tories...

    That being the case, how could they justify a coalition with the conservatives to their constituency???
    Live Long And Prosper!
    Rickos.

  8. #33623
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    Quote Originally Posted by rickos View Post
    So in fact, what you are saying is that the Libs have more in common (in theory) with Labour than the with the Tories...

    That being the case, how could they justify a coalition with the conservatives to their constituency???
    The Tories won definitely more seats and more share of votes, but not outright majority. Lib Dem leader promised in the campaign that he would work with the party with more votes and seats and kept his promise. You are right and there are surely many lib dem supporters grumbling about this. Clegg (the Lib Dem leader), if he could come to an agreement with the Conservatives, will have a very difficult job to persuade his supporters.

    This is an incredibly divided country. There are many staunch anti-Conservatives and anti-Labours. But then the third party is also left wing. And then there are many independent and irrelevant small parties that split the votes. It always made me laugh when some people got snooty with the idea that the British system is the best. What a joke. Mind you, the Brits turn their nose up on any 'presidential style' governance. Anyway, the general idea is "Anything British is the best in the world, Americans and their stuff are chavs". You get the idea....

  9. #33624
    sneakyboots is offline Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Franosh View Post
    The Tories won definitely more seats and more share of votes, but not outright majority. Lib Dem leader promised in the campaign that he would work with the party with more votes and seats and kept his promise. You are right and there are surely many lib dem supporters grumbling about this. Clegg (the Lib Dem leader), if he could come to an agreement with the Conservatives, will have a very difficult job to persuade his supporters.

    This is an incredibly divided country. There are many staunch anti-Conservatives and anti-Labours. But then the third party is also left wing. And then there are many independent and irrelevant small parties that split the votes. It always made me laugh when some people got snooty with the idea that the British system is the best. What a joke. Mind you, the Brits turn their nose up on any 'presidential style' governance. Anyway, the general idea is "Anything British is the best in the world, Americans and their stuff are chavs". You get the idea....
    Chavs........... LOL

  10. #33625
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    Rickos, just a pretty picture for you, from The Economist:
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  11. #33626
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    Problems for Belgium/Euro??

    For those who want to more insite in Europe. I found this in the Financial Time. It is about the situation in Belgium
    I just put the link; FT Alphaville ?It’s the beginning of the endgame for…’ Belgium?

  12. #33627
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    So why is only Greece in the spotlight.
    The whole world is in the same situation, and all you hear about is Greece.
    Of course, my question is rhetorical. the two GS's decided to hit the Euro through Greece, because it is the smallest, and because Greece last year told one GS to get lost.

    1. GS = Goldman Sachs
    2. GS = George Soros

    But I hope France puts its money where its mouth is, and kick some GS BUTT!!!!

    Forget about Club Med, Hungary might be next - FT Alphaville
    The UK is the next Greece - FT Alphaville
    Japan is the next Greece – Seeking Alpha
    Malaysia may be the next Greece – Malaysiakini
    The next Greece? It’s the US! - Business Insider
    How to know if your country is the next Greece – CNNMoney
    ‘Next Greece’ search is on as hedge funds circle - Bloomberg

    And just to raise a few eyebrows, check out this list.
    News Headlines
    Last edited by rickos; 05-08-2010 at 06:25 PM.
    Live Long And Prosper!
    Rickos.

  13. #33628
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    This is hilarious. A video of the trader freaking out at his own webinar: Trader FREAKS OUT During Webinar As Stock Market Crashes (VIDEO)

  14. #33629
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    Quote Originally Posted by rickos View Post
    So why is only Greece in the spotlight.
    The whole world is in the same situation, and all you hear about is Greece.
    Hahahahhhhh...... Rickos, in business that's called first-mover advantage. Now a small country has acquired a big name and incredible weight on international stage, so you should be delighted. Much like Kleenex has become synonymous with tissues.....

    On a side note, haven't I said much much earlier that the UK was Greece, albeit a well wrapped up one? Oh, in addition, it's got some inherited glitter that can blind some fools. But, as the saying goes, all that glitters is not gold.

  15. #33630
    pivot_call is offline Member
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    Finally at least a a ray of hope for your calls and my calendars. Also every time USD/JPY falls below 88 Japanese government successfully intervenes and throws trillions of yen in the market and manages to change the trend. I know its a different case as they want to weaken the yen and over here EU needs to support the Euro so they need to rely on their dollar reserves.



    Quote Originally Posted by Parviz View Post
    This is from one of my favourite economics sources, Seeking Alpha:

    Market Currents
    Saturday, May 8, 2010
    2:19 AM Email this TweetThis

    * As we watch and wait for institutional news on the euro this weekend, Yves Smith points out that single-country currency defenses often fail, but if the U.S., Japan and China want to get involved, that's a different story - and short interest against the euro is at an all-time high, setting up a nice squeeze scenario. (ETF: FXE)

    Can any technicians here confirm this? I can't locate the short interest indicators the writer is referring to.
    Last edited by pivot_call; 05-08-2010 at 10:05 PM.

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