Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Hi everyone. I'm new to the site, been reading for a bit and thought it was time to stop leeching and contribute.

Money management would have to be the first lesson I learnt. Made that mistake once and will never make it again. Its ok to stuff up aslong as you never do it again I reckon!

Originally Posted by MoneyManager

I like John. And he had some good calls earlier this year on USD/JPY (which he has been somewhat silent about recently).

"Economic activity is still depressed and will remain that way as the government withdraws stimulus."

I don't know how that claim can be made in the face of growth. 'Depressed' is subjective, but difficult to apply, I think, to trendline or higher GDP growth. A lot of smart people expect the US to grow > 3% this year. I don't know anyone credible who is calling for a contraction.

" ... as long as it seems the global economy and markets are at risk, investors will look past the United States’ own indebtedness and its deficient yield expectations to harbor funds in Treasuries and other dollar-based assets."

I think that is true. But I think it's also true that expectations of growth matter, because in the end that is the only way any of this gets paid down, or rolled over. Some of the confidence in the dollar is simply because the US economy is still the world's most flexible and dynamic. Everyone's over indebted, there's no way around acknowledging that. But you have to make some kind of bet about who is going to be the last man standing in the developed world.

I have no problem agreeing with anyone who says the US has got some very serious problems. But in the developed world, who doesn't? And who owns the reserve currency? And what additional flexibility does that give the US in addition to its seeming ability to economically reinvent itself when necessary?

The Euro could erupt with a vengeance. There are about as many shorts as there are humans. But let's not forget that this rescue is not exactly a fait accompli yet, and even if it turns out just fine, the deficit reduction measures that are going to have to be taken by Club Med will act as a pretty severe drag on future growth. (Such a drag, that in fact it is hard to imagine Greece being able to adhere to their own promises -- they may contract *twelve* percent next year if they do -- and then what happens?) It's all relative I guess, and I think relative to US economic performance over the next couple of years at least, and probably longer, I would say the EZ is going to look weaker.

The dollar and America are in deep trouble no matter what the current admins numbers say. Housing and jobs must correct before any 'sustained' growth can happen

let just look at one of these..jobs and the great numbers out out last report


* For the last eight weeks, Initial Unemployment Claims have averaged 450,000 per week. So, over the last four weeks [the month counted], 1.8 million people were laid off. How does that fit in with the claim that 290,000 new jobs were created? The obvious answer is that it doesn’t
* The CES Birth/Death adjustment added 188,000 of those jobs. Birth/Death does not refer to people but to businesses. The BLS guesses how many new companies opened versus how many closed their doors. The BLS then uses that guess to guess again how many jobs those business created or lost
* Another 66,000 of the new jobs came from census hiring
* Another 26,000 of the new jobs were non-census temporary

Let’s recap:

* A guess produced 188,000 of the jobs, 66,000 were census and 26,000 were temporary.
* 280,000 of the 290,000 “new jobs” were either temporary or the result of guesswork.

Some turn. Some corner

now tell me everything is rosy or looks even remotely good for America

I really dont care either way, I'll trade it up and I'll trade it down but the real numbers do not match the real truth and sooner or later it has to come out..my guess is not until after mid term elections

Originally Posted by arodriguez

Hello friends!

The last time I posted was March 17th and since then market’s direction remains the same. Downtrend is holding and the MACD is bearish in the three major time frames (daily, weekly, monthly). Additionally some key Fibo levels are broken (1.3320/1.3403).

Well, I see 1.2328 (Oct 2008 low) coming soon… then, 1.1640 (Nov. 2005 low) is likely.

best,

A.

Myopinion that we might go on the monthly to test 1.40 to complet that triangle which will be broken down also this move to 1.40 will be second of the third then the third of the third will be with the break of that triangle down i think (but that dosent mean to buy yet )

I SHORTED AT 12582.... It bounced up just when i thought i placed it too risky it dropped 12564 kicking my target in for another 20 points,
Crikey i tried to take my tgt off ...it hit my profit line too quick.......mental mental mental!!!!!!

The U.S. is going to have a hard time sustaining a high level of true growth, and so is the E.U. But for right now there is a strong downward trend in the EUR/USD and its better to try to go with the trend than pick the downside.

There are alot of emotional articles being written and self proclaimed gurus on the media who dramatize the situation to gain attention. I don't know how many times I have seen something like "its the end of the EU" or "The end of the euro" or "Europe's day as a world power is over" or other such stupidity. Its like they're trying to make a movie out of it .

The EU is not going to collapse, and the Euro is not going to zero. However until we see a real reversal it still easier to make money on the downside

Originally Posted by cw1

I SHORTED AT 12582.... It bounced up just when i thought i placed it too risky it dropped 12564 kicking my target in for another 20 points,
Crikey i tried to take my tgt off ...it hit my profit line too quick.......mental mental mental!!!!!!

You didn't just say "Crikey" did You? I thought the Crocodile Hunter had left Us for the Elysian Fields. Glad to see Ya still kickin! LOL

Originally Posted by Mary R

The U.S. is going to have a hard time sustaining a high level of true growth, and so is the E.U. But for right now there is a strong downward trend in the EUR/USD and its better to try to go with the trend than pick the downside.

There are alot of emotional articles being written and self proclaimed gurus on the media who dramatize the situation to gain attention. I don't know how many times I have seen something like "its the end of the EU" or "The end of the euro" or "Europe's day as a world power is over" or other such stupidity. Its like they're trying to make a movie out of it .

The EU is not going to collapse, and the Euro is not going to zero. However until we see a real reversal it still easier to make money on the downside

hi mary, wheres your next short likely to be

Originally Posted by carthage

I don't have a good sense for the top of the bounce over the next couple of days. But I am comfortable that there will be a lower low by May 24th. I am shorting 1/2 lot at every 50 pips above the 1.2790 low. Maximum position 3lots. SL 1.34 declining 50 pips/day TP TBD.

Picked up my short 3 lots between May 5 and May 10 @avg 1.2965. Still waiting for a fresh new low. Will cover half at first new low after today. Hang on to other half until May23, gold hits 1275, EUR hits 1.24, or SL hit at 1.2965.

Originally Posted by bill2759

You didn't just say "Crikey" did You? I thought the Crocodile Hunter had left Us for the Elisian Fields. Glad to see Ya still kickin! LOL

yeah, ive no idea how that sputed out!

Originally Posted by CodyB

Let’s recap:

* A guess produced 188,000 of the jobs, 66,000 were census and 26,000 were temporary.
* 280,000 of the 290,000 “new jobs” were either temporary or the result of guesswork.

Some turn. Some corner

now tell me everything is rosy or looks even remotely good for America

CodyB, that's not all:

U.S. Home Seizures Reach Record as Recovery Delayed (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

The recovery is all smoke and mirrors.

Originally Posted by Parviz

CodyB, that's not all:

U.S. Home Seizures Reach Record as Recovery Delayed (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

The recovery is all smoke and mirrors.

I know quite well the problems and again, its only the manner in which you put things that people do not care for we are all but keyboards here so emotions can be read into anything.

Originally Posted by cw1

hi mary, wheres your next short likely to be

I have a short from 1.2675 and I covered half, holding half of it

if 2550 holds we will see 26 2640 if not then we will see 2500 and 2440 next

I'm short at 1.2565.
It's bouncing around either side for the past two Hours. I usually look for 50 Pips. Think I'll go for 25 this time, 50 may be too much to expect right now.

well bill from my chart you should have 100 pips now profit