Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by MoneyInc.

The EW pro vs Simple TA

Hey Money
Watch out there now!! I'm gaining just a tad. Nothing much really. Looks to be a 5th wave so far. I took half profit off the table, actually most of it. I'm expecting a failure of this rally, its looking tired. Plus the 2563-2453 move down is possibly a 5-waver, so it may have a twin of equal size. With the rally stopping at the 50 fib of the decline from the top, a twin of equal length would put at the 2383 level. Spoke to soon its going above the 50 possibly to 61.8.

A-Yo Bro

Originally Posted by 4xtr8ter

Couple things to think about here before taking a position...


1) If this was intervention by a central bank.. they are not gonna just push it up 500 pips and let it come back down so all the bears can get better entry points... they are not that dumb.

2) If this was hedge funds pulling euro profits to keep from getting margin called in stock markets... I would guess they will continue to do so until the market gets a clear direction.
Trading short here is a big risk. Something is up here and I am thinking intervention by one or more of the smaller central banks such as Switzerland or Australia. I wouldnt go long til it breaks above 1.2700... then I would feel more comfortable and even then if it does it all in one shot I will probably stay out. Money Inc. is right to expect a trip back to 1.32-1.35 in the next few weeks. If you thought the central banks were gonna sit around and let every ding dong with a laptop make money by closing their eyes and hitting the short button on the euro.... I got a plot of ocean front land in idaho to sell you.

there will probably be more central bank intervention in the coming weeks as they do not want a massive drop in the Euro since it could disrupt the functioning of the European bond markets . However, they probably want to save their ammunition for the times when it is most needed since intervention can lose its effectiveness if it is done too often

This looks like a very good set up didnt look at it that way but i think this migh be things to come and true bears or not we should all take notice

Originally Posted by 4xtr8ter

Anyone else notice the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on the monthly chart??? This could be scary for all you bears if it is true.

Originally Posted by 4xtr8ter

Anyone else notice the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on the monthly chart??? This could be scary for all you bears if it is true.

4x
Never notice that before. Oh myyyyyy.

A-Yo Bro

Originally Posted by Mary R

there will probably be more central bank intervention in the coming weeks as they do not want a massive drop in the Euro since it could disrupt the functioning of the European bond markets . However, they probably want to save their ammunition for the times when it is most needed since intervention can lose its effectiveness if it is done too often

Good point. Open market operations have planned target levels and can carry on for long periods to reach them.

Originally Posted by stanchiam

daily chart

Today 21 May

this 4 hr chart show more details, we are now into previous wave 3 and 4 zone
But I expect it to reach at least 1.27 to complete the abc correction before turning down again

this is a 15 min chart
grab your chance

Originally Posted by Steve125

Folks there is a complete panic to raise cash. Massive client redemptions are leading funds to head off margin calls. Mangers are hitting the most liquid markets, futures and currency. With large YTD profits on Euro shorts it's an easy choice to raise cash.

I would not be surprised on CB intervention too but the above is in serious play. If funds start collapsing then we get a 2009 repeat.

I'm still looking to 1.2740, hopefully on the other side of the weekend, to start shorting because when it reverses back down look out below.

If it was CB intervention, there would be zero doubt about it. There is no other reason for them to come in other than in an attempt to shock and awe, and hence they would not be coy about it. I think your "raise cash" argument is very solid, and that is more likely what this is about.

...

Nikkei now > 14 percent down from April highs, but get this, still > 8 percent *above* just the six-month low.

Stan,

By rule of alternation don't you think that a multi-week triangle 4th wave is much more likely scenario as the second wave was a simple 2 week a-b-c. It is also necessary to correct those oversold levels and build some bullish or at least neutral sentiment before the next leg down is possible.

-P

Originally Posted by stanchiam

this is a 15 min chart
grab your chance

Interesting to see what happens here, On one hand you have the inverted head and shoulders pointing to a continuation upwards, However, you have the upper trendlne and what appears to be a rising wedge forming into that downward trendline, I'd prefer to sell into the rallies but we've fallen so steep so gotta be cautious.

Chart notes. Adjust lines as pattern shapes. Position on break. Bias long. Ideal target still ~1.2700

http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd05201015m.gif

TAfool

Originally Posted by pivot_call

Stan,

By rule of alternation don't you think that a multi-week triangle 4th wave is much more likely scenario as the second wave was a simple 2 week a-b-c. It is also necessary to correct those oversold levels and build some bullish or at least neutral sentiment before the next leg down is possible.

-P

true, could be a complex correction

here is a short term count
good luck

Originally Posted by mozi3232

i would appreciate to give your euro uptade , thank in advance

I'm not too sure about the EUR/USD right now, it could go either way.. Notice we've got a long wick sticking out of the bottom of May's price action right now at fibonacci support... This is indicative of a bottoming process taking place in the market... However I would wait for much better confirmation before going long... The market is either going to continue lower, or start carving out a bottom around current levels before a substantial bounce higher...