Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by newt

Thanks for your detail explanation.
I guess the Dow keep shooting up also helps the EUR going up, is that true?

I believe it depends whether you are looking at it rising over the short term or
the long term. In the long term last year for instance due to risk not being an issue people were investing in the higher yielding assets so long term I think yes both go in the same direction to a point. Short term they tend to be more independent from each other for example the fall in the Dow happened quite a while after a fall in the Euro which had happened for a good while.

with the hawkish comments from RBNZ last night the eur/nzd has resumed a very bearish trend. I can't think of anything which would break this trend now

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Trending Investing, good to have you with us. Welcome to the trading community. Thanks for your contribution.

Yeah, a head & shoulders pattern just broke on the monthly chart. Ouch! So that means that the euro could be in for an enormous fall over time. Oh sure, there could be a heck of a retracement upward first to the tune of 1.28-1.30ish but then,...look out below if this head & shoulders pattern is right.

Fundamentally I really cannot see how the Euro can reverse its current downtrend until America starts suffering its own debt crises meaning the USD may no longer be seen as much better off. By year end the Euro/USD could easily pass through 1.00 due to fundamentals. In my opinion nothing will improve until all the debts are wiped or inflated away and eventually governments and central banks are going to have to choose one or the other they cant bailout every1 forever. In both cases the Euro would fall though in my opinion.

you could put overlay the DOW chart over second half of your chart & they would be close to a mirrow image of each othere . nice chart thanks for sharing

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Trending Investing, good to have you with us. Welcome to the trading community. Thanks for your contribution.

Yeah, a head & shoulders pattern just broke on the monthly chart. Ouch! So that means that the euro could be in for an enormous fall over time. Oh sure, there could be a heck of a retracement upward first to the tune of 1.28-1.30ish but then,...look out below if this head & shoulders pattern is right.

I actually have a similar view in the Greater Scheme of things.

Given that it could well be that we saw from the peak of 2008 a simple but huge 5-3-5 pattern with the last 5 in its final stages at present, then it is only fitting from that basis that we shall experience further corrective patterns with the first one likely to take an extreme 1-2-3 X in the upwards direction.

This shall in the smaller scale appear Impulsive but I shall be trading it with the smaller time-frame but having an eye on the greater scheme also.

I bet that if we draw trend lines from 2008 down across the peak of 2009, and another from the lows as you have to include the one in progress then we shall see in a couple of years a most wonderful tri-angle before then moving down to the lows that you indicate on your chart Mr Sean.

Its all good fun isn't it ?!

Colly
----

Originally Posted by nopainnogain

was it marty that was holding off for 1.2181 area that would be 1.618 fib. from last x

I called for 1.2130-1.2150 yesterday. I guess I was right. Now I'll try to place a short there somewhere, but with a stop around 1.2170, since Jim Rogers said that Euro is a good buy (I guess EU read my posts this past week on how to make a currency rally).

BTW, where's Bill? He's my most useful indicator of a downtrend.

Originally Posted by martyman13

I called for 1.2130-1.2150 yesterday. I guess I was right. Now I'll try to place a short there somewhere, but with a stop around 1.2170, since Jim Rogers said that Euro is a good buy (I guess EU read my posts this past week on how to make a currency rally).

BTW, where's Bill? He's my most useful indicator of a downtrend.

Yeah, I was also wondering where is Bill? - Summoning Bill - we need your Madam's B Crystal Ball. It's urgent.

"Mother of Mercy. Is this the end of Rico?"
A corny quote from a 30's gangster film staring Edward G Robinson.

Oh Madaam B! What have You gotten Me into? I'm gettin Murdered here. Not only did You get Me back in at 1.2050, Our final destination short of 1.2125 has been triggered. I'm starting to get nervous.
"Relax Sonny! The number 1.17 is getting clearer and more prominent in the Ol Crystal Ball. Hang in there."
Of course She's not shaken, it's not her money.
"What's the problem? You''ve plenty of Margin cash. Don't be a Weenie."
Yeah! But I coulda made a bundle taking a few longs here.
"Don't over complicate the process. If You start that, You'll have to anticipate the directional changes. And You ain't got the smarts or temperment for that. The main trend is still down. You won't get burnt. Hanging on to a losing long at this point will kill You."

She's always been correct, so far. It may be a humbler and milder Bill in the future if this indeed the Trend change though.

Happy Trading!

Originally Posted by nopainnogain

you could put overlay the DOW chart over second half of your chart & they would be close to a mirrow image of each othere . nice chart thanks for sharing

I can't do overlays with my charts that go back that far in time.

Levels to watch on EUR/USD...

on your 40 day chart the last part is not near as impulseive as the first 2 legs this looks like a very tired area

Nice one to share so in Xchange rate terms how do you read the average or work out extreme price?

Originally Posted by TrendInvesting

Hi,
As a long term oriented investor, I like to get some historic perspective on the forex rates of today. Therefore, we made a 20 year history chart of the EUR / USD. 20 years? For the first 10 we used the USD/DEM exchange rate and the EUR/DEM rate at the comment of transition. It shows in any case that we are currently not in unprecedented areas and that this could move all directions. At this moment the longer term trend is clearly down.
I wanted to share the chart for those who are also more long term oriented.

Originally Posted by nopainnogain

on your 40 day chart the last part is not near as impulseive as the first 2 legs this looks like a very tired area

We'll see...at the moment, the USD and JPY are both selling off. However, they are still at critical points.

Frustrating few days for those generally bearish on the risk currencies. I've seen decent profits on CAD/JPY and AUD/USD ( via the poor US jobs data last week) come back now towards breakeven over the past two to three days. Still holding a risk-off perspective but the rally especially in AUD has been pretty strong of late taking out plenty of resistance yesterday and today. Above 85.40 will have to rethink things.
EUR/USD still looks a sell opportunity with any rally but the commodity currencies against the dollar..... looking like it could go either way now!

I was trying to draw some lines on My chart, and accidentally closed an open position for a 78 Pip loss.

Stupid stupid Stupid.