Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by engcomp

Zion, in this setup is the S&P a leading indicator? In other words, how much time have you got to mount the trade indicated by the S&P?

I can regard S&P as a leading indicator in this case since the service I follow are good on S&P swings . Right now we sold snp since 13th and entered the currencies as well. The currencies even performed even before the S&P selloff on the 16th. They still expect more downside on the S&P and so I will be adding positions in the currencies whenever possible. I think it is ok for now...no levels to study on the currency space..only follow the S&P. Must mention that Eur/USD did not work this time...maybe because they belong to same currency category? I however entered short @13000 and still short.

Originally Posted by stryker

For what it is worth, bought at 2890.. Stops below 2850... Limit on one lot at 2948 and open for the other... I hope it can stay above 2865.........

but only euro opening way down and euro crosses suffer loses as well... Swissy gaped lower... Any negative euro news over the weekend...

GL...

I have also took my tp @1.2948 up 10 pips from 38!!!

I also took another 2 lots @1.28914 for same tp as above???

caps out!!!

Originally Posted by stryker

For what it is worth, bought at 2890.. Stops below 2850... Limit on one lot at 2948 and open for the other... I hope it can stay above 2865.........

but only euro opening way down and euro crosses suffer loses as well... Swissy gaped lower... Any negative euro news over the weekend...

GL...

don't know what is happening... bailed on lot at 2905... Stop lowered to 2884 for the other one with open limits...

Gl...

News Headlines

Originally Posted by smallcaps49

I have also took my tp @1.2948 up 10 pips from 38!!!

I also took another 2 lots @1.28914 for same tp as above???

caps out!!!

@1.29144 and holding my 1st 2 lots, I'm now covered with them, see what happens???

caps out!!!

Originally Posted by smallcaps49

@1.29144 and holding my 1st 2 lots, I'm now covered with them, see what happens???

caps out!!!

Placing order long on euppy at 111.10 and 111.16 for 2 lots and stops below 110.85.. Limit for 1 lot at 111.66, open for the other one....

Daily looks dangerous enough, though if euro holds 2885 and yen halts at around 86.18-21, this should work out...
Limit long yen as well at 86.24 with stops under 86.... limit 86.84.....
Lets see how this rolls out.....
Possibility on euppy to surge rt after touch down to 111.46.........

GL...

Originally Posted by stryker

Placing order long on euppy at 111.10 and 111.16 for 2 lots and stops below 110.85.. Limit for 1 lot at 111.66, open for the other one....

Daily looks dangerous enough, though if euro holds 2885 and yen halts at around 86.18-21, this should work out...
Limit long yen as well at 86.24 with stops under 86.... limit 86.84.....
Lets see how this rolls out.....
Possibility on euppy to surge rt after touch down to 111.46.........

GL...

bailed out on euro at 2905... will long from around 2859 with tight stops below 2844...
BOSPOROS ::::::::: thanx for letting me know the reason for euro not been keeping the pace with the other pairs...
GL...

EDIT::::
Refraining from longs on euro and euppy only one lot for 111.00 with stops under 110.80...
off to sleep will see how things unfold later once i wake up..

GL ALL.....

Man oh man, what is going on with the EUR/USD...

Possibility ----->

Get the heck out of the way ladies and gentlemen, the EUR/USD will fall like a rock this week in lock step with the S&P. Destination 1.15 and belowwwwww. Look carefully at the chart, it tells the story very clearly!!

Originally Posted by brad_1199

Man oh man, what is going on with the EUR/USD...

Possibility ----->

If you relabel 1-2-3 to a-b-c then 4 could turn into 1 of the next down swing. Who knows?

Originally Posted by smallcaps49

gain 2 lots @1.29087 and will take a 30 pip profit? sl @ 1.2868! Love these opening gaps that should fill easy???

caps out!!!

will be filled??? Coming your way soon enough, and then shorting this one as said before!!!

caps out!!!

Originally Posted by BlueSkies

This is excellent engcomp. I can see we approach trading from the same point of view, probabilites of outcomes over the longer term leading to positive results. Thanks for sharing this, it has given me some food for thought as I am presently analyzing ways to scale positions based on probabilites of individual trade success. Presently all signals are treated equally and volatility alone scales the contract size with a few rule based exceptions.

Congrats on your system and performance, it's been great exchanging ideas.

cheers,
BlueSkies

Thank you for the nice comment. The TEF has helped me to settle a question concerning commercial EA robots. Most of them work on the principle of taking quick small profits so they can show a staggering %win of 95% to 99%! This would not be possible if they had commensurate small stop loss targets. Consequently, commercial EAs have very large or NO stop loss.

TEF is very easy to calculate. For example, your strategy...
%win = 25, Real_R = 800 / 100 = 8, Zero_R = (100 – 25) / 25 = 3, Safe_R = (110 – 25) / (25 – 10) + 1 = 6.66, TEF = (8 – 3) / (6.66 – 3) = 1.37 is fabulous.

Compare this with two commercial EAs having 95% and 99% winning trades with 10 pips profit target and stop loss of 50 and 150 pips respectively. Their TEF is 0.13 and 0.05 respectively, so close to the zero curve as not to be worth trading. However, the result IS positive.

Zion's comment that he considers less than 50% wins a failure needs elaboration. If he is happy to have his profit target equal his stop loss, his TEF is 0! In his case, he needs a win/loss ratio of 2.5 to hit the holy grail of 1.

All of this I had to judge by intuition until I developed TEF.

Originally Posted by brad_1199

Man oh man, what is going on with the EUR/USD...

Possibility ----->

It's not making much sense to me, - could China be buying up Euros? They don't want to see it fall.

Originally Posted by surreyhills

It's not making much sense to me, - could China be buying up Euros? They don't want to see it fall.

Hmmm - If you had a trillion dollars invested in US bonds, would you be worried? If so, what would you do? I am not a fundamentalist, I am a scalper to whom the fundamentals mean nothing. But the question "could China be buying Euros?" is intriguing. Both currencies, Euro and USD, are on a race to the bottom. If you were China, and you wanted your currency to be the next global currency, what would be your strategy? You already gobbled up the USD, now gobble up the Euro, then call their bluff? Seems possible.

Originally Posted by engcomp

Hmmm - If you had a trillion dollars invested in US bonds, would you be worried? If so, what would you do? I am not a fundamentalist, I am a scalper to whom the fundamentals mean nothing. But the question "could China be buying Euros?" is intriguing. Both currencies, Euro and USD, are on a race to the bottom. If you were China, and you wanted your currency to be the next global currency, what would be your strategy? You already gobbled up the USD, now gobble up the Euro, then call their bluff? Seems possible.

Why is that people always simply assume that China wants its currency to be the next global currency? Its economy might be growing by the standard of the West. But China's issue is not a matter of mere GDP growth or not, and the way that statistics are reported there, it would always meet the government's target. And its currency is not even a floated currency. It is not in China's interest to have its currency floated, or to become a "global currency". It's not a mere economic factor, more of a political factor to keep it as it is.