Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Pivotal12

Why couldn't it be a case of "Facts are clear, there's no stress in the financials, so it's time to retrace..." It seems to me that teh Euro has TANKED, not rallied, for the last few months PRECISELY based in the lack of clarity about the stress level of some financial institutions...

Oh, and by the way, during those months, the US economy has, if anything, deteriorated and the outlook remains gloomy.

So, since you advocate selling the Euro, I would take the other side of that trade, ok?

Please - neither one of you know how these stress tests will turn out or how the markets will respond. Not a particularly good risk/reward set up unless you have a very tight stop.

Originally Posted by ShipItToMike

PLEASE - your the one who's on page 6 lady. It's EASY to come on here and tell everyone to stay flat. Although I have a long bias I would rather listen to commentary that supported being short rather than nothing.

BTW.. You are always on the USD/CAD thread so I thought you might like to know that it is HEADED TO PAR AND IT'S NOT EVEN CLOSE.

GO AWAY

Gosh i feel so bad now I think I will just go cry. You're a big meanie

Originally Posted by Mary R

Please - neither one of you know how these stress tests will turn out or how the markets will respond. Not a particularly good risk/reward set up unless you have a very tight stop.

Well you are right-- technically. In reality, I'm sure a person so well informed as you read/heard what the central financial Greek authority said a couple of days back-- that the main bank in Greece would pass the stress test with no trouble. So, if Greece was the most problematic European country and its main bank is going to pass the stress test with flying colors, it is only LOGICAL to assume that the rest will pass also.

But there's more: Yesterday's financial and economic news from the old continent ALL exceeded expectations... while Mr. Bernanke offered quite a gloomy picture of the equivalent in the US. So, putting those two sources of informations and corresponding assumptions, I choose to be long the Euro at this point.

As you can read, the basis for it is far from a thrown dart.

I fail to see the reason for you to be short the pair, like I told you this morning and I certainly hope it doesn't get you on the wrong side of the fence at this point.

I wish there was less close conflict and more open minded learning in these forums.

Anyway, my view still remains long for the EUR/USD. Some technicals are looking at a fall, but I like the carts and they still look good to me to go long. I posted early this morning that I expect an overshoot of 1.30 in a day or two, so far today we made it half way. I'd expect a pullback throught tonight of maybe half the rally, but then a slower climb to stardom tomorrow.

And too, I just really want to see 1.30 hit and held. If it is a psych level, then it's definitely mine!


t3t4

Why do you expect a pullback overnight?

Originally Posted by Pivotal12

Why do you expect a pullback overnight?

Honestly, for two reasons.

1. Most of the technical indicators are saying so, and until they align a bit better for an upward push, I'd expect some hesitation from the average trader.

2. From my experience, the market is the ultimate creature of habit. Typically speaking, when you have a strong upward surge during the day, you see a weak pullback during the night.

Who knows, the market can do anything it wants at any time. But this is my best guess only from looking at the charts.

Originally Posted by ShipItToMike

PLEASE - your the one who's on page 6 lady. It's EASY to come on here and tell everyone to stay flat. Although I have a long bias I would rather listen to commentary that supported being short rather than nothing.

BTW.. You are always on the USD/CAD thread so I thought you might like to know that it is HEADED TO PAR AND IT'S NOT EVEN CLOSE.

GO AWAY

THERE WAS NO NEED FOR THAT!!!! IS THERE A MODERATOR FOR THIS FORUM?

Originally Posted by t3t4

Honestly, for two reasons.

1. Most of the technical indicators are saying so, and until they align a bit better for an upward push, I'd expect some hesitation from the average trader.

2. From my experience, the market is the ultimate creature of habit. Typically speaking, when you have a strong upward surge during the day, you see a weak pullback during the night.

Who knows, the market can do anything it wants at any time. But this is my best guess only from looking at the charts.

Thank you..

I, on the other hand, expect a MAJOR positive reaction to the stress tests results that, like everything in this rigged casino, will be know (and acted upon) by the right players long before they are announced. Shorts will have to cover then in a hurry and, as a consequence, those that follow the trend will find themselves doing exactly that while the aforementioned simply cash in.

I do expect a retreat but from much higher highs... above 1.30

We will soon see which way the market decides to go... This is just educated speculation, nothing more.

Originally Posted by dhan1163

Hi, Stryker

I'm trying to draw chart follow your strategy.

This is my first chart of G/CHF (I'm sorry this isn't a forum of G/CHF).

Could you check it if it's good ?

Thanks

Finally caught some much needed sleep......
YEP.. The pair is goofy to me... This is the first time I have looked upon the charts on this pair and where we are currently it is choppy as well.
On Monthly it seems this is the lowest it ever came...
Well I think 5825 is to watch...... A very good bounce and maybe in a month or 2 one can see around early 70's......

On the charts u did I think T2 / T6 and T7 are alright.. If you need to further spot between the choppiness then revert to next smaller time frame you have namely the 30 mins..

I don't have any clue on this pair and esp Swissy as I have stained longs on them from 1.07**........... Food for thought, if maybe swissy decides to take a little breather and the pounder holding well above 5075-5130... then I think you have room to go on this pair.................
but plz don't take my opinion on this pair as once again no clue how to read swissy ............. I think you get the point.........

As for the stress test..... If euro fails to cross above 2960-83........ Shorts would be the slogan....... this is what I checked last... Will come back later with the charts..

GL.....

Originally Posted by Andie

THERE WAS NO NEED FOR THAT!!!! IS THERE A MODERATOR FOR THIS FORUM?

Yes there is thank you and you are correct. If posters have a difficult time making their point without being condescending, they will be asked to leave. There is no room for "attitude" in this forum.

Originally Posted by Pivotal12

Why couldn't it be a case of "Facts are clear, there's no stress in the financials, so it's time to retrace..." It seems to me that teh Euro has TANKED, not rallied, for the last few months PRECISELY based in the lack of clarity about the stress level of some financial institutions...

Oh, and by the way, during those months, the US economy has, if anything, deteriorated and the outlook remains gloomy.

So, since you advocate selling the Euro, I would take the other side of that trade, ok?

You do that...... and watch your money disappear!!!!!!!

Originally Posted by Pivotal12

Thank you..

I, on the other hand, expect a MAJOR positive reaction to the stress tests results that, like everything in this rigged casino, will be know (and acted upon) by the right players long before they are announced. Shorts will have to cover then in a hurry and, as a consequence, those that follow the trend will find themselves doing exactly that while the aforementioned simply cash in.

I do expect a retreat but from much higher highs... above 1.30

We will soon see which way the market decides to go... This is just educated speculation, nothing more.

No worries, and thank you for the view point. If my guess is even remotely correct, we should know by 4 am est at the latest.

"Rigged Casino", I like that analogy and wish I could be on the rigging side. But we all knew when we signed up that we're betting against the house. Which is one reason I like the SSI indicator.

Thanks again,
t3t4

looking into current situation, what is our confident level that eur/usd will be bullish today..across 1.3

Should be slow for another quite few hrs and my guess before we hit the wires on the stress test we would be hovering up and down the 2900 lvl...

once again the 3033 to the north and 2790 by or around the stress test ... on the 2 hrs chart...
Prolly come back with a fresher chart before the wire hits...

GL...

AUD looking ripe at around 8995 to 9020...
Entry order short waiting at 8995 n 9016 stops above 9048....
Open wide limit to the south....

GL...