Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by smallcaps49

If??? this market runs through 1.27 as a falling knife, we will NOT see a retracement??? (BUTT as I said before, watch 2650 closely) And if 2650 breaks we go to the 2550-2450???

If 1.27 holds, we should hit the 1.2880ish and then looking for 1.2916-30ish, and if this level breaks, look for 1.3000-30 again and the possibility of the 1.3110-20 before down she goes again!!! (BUTT do NOT expire 1.3300 highs???)

I'm looking at, if the 1.2700 holds, we will see a retracement to at least 2916-36, and watch for a possible break above, and if stalls, down she goes big time again???

So my trade plan for Monday, is watching for a knife through 2700, and if holds, taking scalps all the way to 2880ish and then watching the 2916-36 for a failure or the break. BUTT, I'm betting on retacement from 2700-2650 area, Butt will watch the 2650 closely for further down, very closely if breaks 2700!!!

Hope this is clear enough to explain my strat plan, as an Author, I SUCK!!! LOL!!!:

caps out!!!

I agree almost entirely.... I think we start off heading almost down, if not most prolly would not peak higher to 2777-90...
I understand you mentioning earlier about the 2730 and below that gunning shorts.. the last to provoke the bounce was indeed 2733 region.. which prompts me to stay short below 2745-50 for possible break lower to 2690 heading towards 2640 region...
Overall if euro needs to go higher it needs to hold 2700 lvl for possible move up to 2825 from where onwards more shorter would jump in.. those who have missed it from around 2920 mark
If played rt, there is good amount of money to be made and you will have your blood count to stay warm at the nights
Peace................
GL................

Originally Posted by nopainnogain

your postings are great there not about you but the market , I appreciate that.,

Thanks Thomas

Does anyone else here pull down the weekly calender in the .csv or xml format? Looks like last week they changed the way they host the file and this week it's not updated at all? Anyone have a contact for the calender stuff?

Thanks
Steve


PS> Bullish on EUR/USD for a test of 1.30

Thanx Mike still going through your posts after a 5 hour drive and thenx it was a safe trip

Originally Posted by FLFOREX

Hey PG, thanks, Have a safe trip home my friend

Originally Posted by nopainnogain

just quick thought off top of my head; without going to book. w 5 can equail w 1 most normal or if W 5 is greater than w 3 as lg as three is not shortest thats ok w 5 can be longest , that often happens if wi or 3 have no extra lg. move, w5 can be truncation . most often when w 3 is well overdone .

Thanx Nopain, I normally use w1 to calculate w5 but thought I'd ask Brad what was his preferred method. So your method is same as mine. I have the levels mapped out based of w4's completion@2905. The truncated 5th level corresponds with last week's low, which is 61.8*w1's length. Equality and 161.8*w1 level is also present. The alt. shorter TF chart shows w4 still in progress in the form of an expanded flat, first obstacle being 2827ish. A drop below 2701 will nullify the alt. count and may justify an extended 5th or at least equality w1=w5. I'm still keeping an eye out for your series of 1-2s.

A-Yoooooooo

PS. Hey everyone, hope you guys had a swell weekend.

Originally Posted by Boone

Hello,
this is my first post on the EUR/USD forum. I was reviewing my weekly and daily charts of this pair and I wanted to share my wave counts with the forum members and possibly get some constructive feedback.

The first chart is the weekly and so far, I have three complete waves in a downtrend with a wave 4 completion suspect, (in my mind anyway). There is a huge bearish engulfing pattern which does forebode more downside, however, lets switch to the daily chart.

On the daily chart, you have three waves possibly completed in a counter-trend move against the weekly downtrend. The green lines are projected 4th and 5th wave points. The reasoning behind the 4th wave projection terminating between the 50% and 61.8% retracement level of the move from 1.18760-1.3402 is that wave four, by defintion should not breach the wave 1 level. Wave 5 termination level is uncertain, but it must move above wave 3.

At this point, where these waves end isn't important. What's important is that the daily wave counts tell me that EUR/USD must move higher above wave 3, before the downtrend established on the weekly charts can resume and complete the 5th wave.

I will wait and see if this daily counter trend move develops it's 4th and 5th wave before entering short.

What do you think?

First off, It's great to have you among us. Welcome to the greatest place on the planet. Truthfully, I can't say I've seen many three wave counts from the 5140 top. Only because almost everyone has the 3267 low as w3 with w5 extending to the yearly low. For those that were counting the 3267 low as w1, had their count invalidated when price violated 3267. When price broke above 3113 first then 3267, alot of EW folks had no choice but to acknowledge the drop from 5140ish as a 5-waver completing a ABC correction from 1.6. Or acknowledge the drop from 5140 as a 3-waver(wA@3267, wB@3691, wC@1875) completing a wY of WXY correction from 1.6xx. I will agree that the bearish engulfing candle threatens my view that a 5-wvr from 5140ish has completed the entire correction from 1.6xxish but I have the 3333 top as a possible w1, this decline is wA of 2. And being that w2 normally retraces deep into w1's territory, I figured we are in a zig-zag correction heading for 62-76.4 of 1875's rally.

A-Yooooooooooo

Originally Posted by AyoBro

Thanx Nopain, I normally use w1 to calculate w5 but thought I'd ask Brad what was his preferred method. So your method is same as mine. I have the levels mapped out based of w4's completion@2905. The truncated 5th level corresponds with last week's low, which is 61.8*w1's length. Equality and 161.8*w1 level is also present. The alt. shorter TF chart shows w4 still in progress in the form of an expanded flat, first obstacle being 2827ish. A drop below 2701 will nullify the alt. count and may justify an extended 5th or at least equality w1=w5. I'm still keeping an eye out for your series of 1-2s.

A-Yoooooooo

PS. Hey everyone, hope you guys had a swell weekend.

i had a 15 min charts today of a series of ! & 2 but was afraid to post , thinking i was going to extreams. so when you mention 1 & 2 that was good to hear.

I took a few positions short, stops are in profit and will trail soon... mike

EDIT, out with 24.6 pips

Originally Posted by FLFOREX

I took a few positions short, stops are in profit and will trail soon... mike

EDIT, out with 24.6 pips

I did the same but at Friday's close, hoping for a gap down. Didn't get it but look at price now. Chopped the position in half and set stop to b/e. I'd really like a better entry tell you the truth.

Nopain, the way that weekly candle swallowed up 2-3 bull candles, the 1-2s could be a warning for a new yearly lows, so it's definitely a possiblility. A clean convincing break/close of 27xx would lean me further to the 1-2s count. I haven't done the math for wiii of 3 fall from the sky yet. Whoa, my eyes are playing tricks on me, thought I seen a 60 pip jump & dump on g/u.

A-Yoooooooooo

Originally Posted by FLFOREX

I took a few positions short, stops are in profit and will trail soon... mike
EDIT, out with 24.6 pips

hi MIke . First thank you for explanation . Second since you are from Florida I love it . Third, do u expect that USD INDEX chart has a positive correlation with eurusd or negative ? thanks again cheers Florida

Reminds me of the Seinfeld eiipsode were ther all were saying "Hellllllooooo" any ways. I am getting 1.29018 showing up on my radar. Lets make it another great week.

Originally Posted by Qabazard

hi MIke . First thank you for explanation . Second since you are from Florida I love it . Third, do u expect that USD INDEX chart has a positive correlation with eurusd or negative ? thanks again cheers Florida

HEY Q, THE DOLLAR INDEX AND EURO RUN OPPOSITE OF EACH OTHER.. MIKE

Originally Posted by MoneyInc.II

Reminds me of the Seinfeld eiipsode were ther all were saying "Hellllllooooo" any ways. I am getting 1.29018 showing up on my radar. Lets make it another great week.

MONEY... GOOD TO SEE YOU.... MIKE

Originally Posted by FLFOREX

MONEY... GOOD TO SEE YOU.... MIKE

I see you have been scalping like Crazzzyyy! Keep it up big Guy......

Originally Posted by FLFOREX

I took a few positions short, stops are in profit and will trail soon... mike

EDIT, out with 24.6 pips

Same here, got the top.. the pace is a drag and need that 2730 to be out...
but shots on euppy looking good and waiting that break underneath to 109.20 region to accelerate things... I guess what i really need is the last low of 2730 to be out... thinking taking 59 pips and be out on euppy since only in...
Anyways interesting start to the week... Lets hope no rebounds back to 2830 or higher... Not now while im in ..... LOL......

GL....