Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Thank you Screwdriverr! Just trying to drum up some business for my live trading room; shameless self promotion!

Thanksgiving will be Thursday, November 26th and the next holiday would be Christmas. The Friday after Thanksgiving could see some lighter than average trading as many take the Friday off as for an extended weekend. There are no major U.S. holidays next week.

However, National Clean out your Refrigerator Day is November 14th, I will be out of the office on that day because it is Sunday! Just a little humor going into the close of trading.

Have a good weekend!

hehe thank You Refrigerator Day is the biggest event next week imo

Originally Posted by brianborn1968

I have been away from the market after being burned a couple of weeks ago, but then I came back to read a little and see that Stryker hit a bulls eye today. Picked the low about 5 minutes after it happened and picked a top within 5 pips almost 2 hours before it happened. Great job!

I don't want to take away from the other great contributors over the last couple of days as from what I have read, I missed a lot of great discussions while it happened. You know who you are and I don't want to try to name everyone here in this message as I don't want to miss someone.

Have a great day trading to all of you today!

Brian

You too, have a nice weekend... I guess I got lucky there...

GL...

good luck every one, have a nice weekend
i'll try to get lost away from markets during the weekend,
this week was pretty much a disaster inside my head

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

43 Trades, 43 Winners- 373 pips. I was able to ride the Euro both up and down as it has been a wild ride. In my 10 am/3pm GMT Forex Trading Room I was able to scalp for 22 pips alongside many traders.

Very impressive Greg! How do you see the direction for EUR/USD for the coming week? Maximum how many positions do you suggest to open per 200 USD of equity? I mean to be on the safe side considering the market volatility.

Good day traders,

With all the austirity on the way in Europe the EU GDP will fall again thus making a dubble dip reality for the EU. The Netherlands (my country) showed a -0,1% change in Q3 GDP. This was totally unexpected. The Netherlands are considered "the best boy in the classroom" in Europe. How about the rest?
For the rest still mounting debt, austirity packages in the making, strikes and political unrest will lead to the breaking up of the EURO zone eventually.
I predict parity between EURO and USD in the spring of 2011.

Originally Posted by Lancelot

Good day traders,

With all the austirity on the way in Europe the EU GDP will fall again thus making a dubble dip reality for the EU. The Netherlands (my country) showed a -0,1% change in Q3 GDP. This was totally unexpected. The Netherlands are considered "the best boy in the classroom" in Europe. How about the rest?
For the rest still mounting debt, austirity packages in the making, strikes and political unrest will lead to the breaking up of the EURO zone eventually.
I predict parity between EURO and USD in the spring of 2011.

I would not go that far. As Kicklighter likes to say, "It is no new news."

Attention, skip RANT

• Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece (PIIGS) and that the EMU stands behind them if they push through reforms. Wethere or not EFSF is able to fund at attractive rates the possible shortfall is the new question.
• Growth in 2H of 2010 will be slower, every analyst said that. That was in the cards. And I played the card.
• China needs thightening. Needs commodities. Needs to curb inflation. Needs to curb hot money inflows. No new news - that is so 2005.
• Hot Money into emerging countries. Keynes wrote in his works that monetary stimulus works best in a closed system. He even proposed that back then, the UK should enact protective measures to prevent outflows and and increase in import demand. Well, we live in a global financial system and monetary policy leaks. Period. Creating new asset bubbles. Flowing to higher yielding assets. NO NEW NEWS since 1930s. We call them today BRIC and Next 11.

Both big economies USA/EuroZone have their distinct problems. Which got the most severe ones is subjective. Juncker says the EMU is in better shape and will emerge stronger. And Geithner says the USA is no Japan. The answer every analyst is looking for is 'who is pulling out and into normal growth scenario earlier while the emerging market plays catch up?'

For next week; G20, SK free trade deal and Ireland will set trading tone Monday and forward. I am leaning towards risk averse. $SPY peeked outside top Bollinger Band the last days and thus pulled lower towards 20DMA, $VIX pointing higher technically. And USD could break out of range slash false break out. (Courtesy of)

Happy Weekend, Happy Trading next week.

S&P 500 may affect also the EUR/USD? Looks similar .. faky breakout and broke some trendlines:

Originally Posted by arodriguez

Good job Gregory!!
I’m still finding some trouble using active trader platform… I really prefer TSII… specially charts. I'm going to send you an email with some questions later on…

my best,

A.

Thanks Arod! Let me know what you are experiencing and I will forward it to FXCM's production department. Did you know that you can get the same spreads on your TSII platform. Think of Active Trader more of a pricing model rather than limited to a single platform. If someone qualifies, they can get those tight spreads that I show with a small commission. Just contact the Active Trader Team-----activetrader@fxcm.com and tell them Greg sent you!

Originally Posted by mehran2010

Very impressive Greg! How do you see the direction for EUR/USD for the coming week? Maximum how many positions do you suggest to open per 200 USD of equity? I mean to be on the safe side considering the market volatility.

Its recommended that 10:1 leverage is the maximum that traders should use in Forex as professional futures and stock traders usually use no more than 2 or 3 times leverage. Leverage is a dual-edged sword magnifying gains as well as losses.

1k for every $100 in equity would be 10:1. So $200 would mean a maximum of 2k is traded. Usually, no more than 2 to 5% of an account should be at risk on any one trade. So no more than 4.00 (40 pips) to $10.00 (100 pips) should be risked on any one trade or combination of trades.

If you are swing or position trading, then for every 1 pip in risk you should be looking to make 2 pips in profit. So, 40 pip stop should have a target of 80 pips. In using a 2:1 reward to risk ratio, you can theoretically lose 60% of your trades and still be profitable.

However, in scalping usually there is an upside down risk to reward ratio because placing a 5 pip stop and a 10 pip limit usually leads to a lot of stop outs. This means that a trader has to be right 90% of the time as one trade can wipe out all of the previous gains. Short-term scalping/day trading is the most risky and demanding form of trading because the margin for error is so small. I do not recommend this type of strategy if you are new to trading or are not comfortable with making quick decisions.

However, my strategy is located here (Short Term Trading Strategies Using Market Depth) if you are interested.

Greg,

Do you mean 2%-5% of net equity position i.e net of any committed to open trades or 2%-5% of gross starting equity position. e..g on $200 account if i open position micro lot $1k with stop of $10 (5% of 200). If i now open 2nd position also a micro lot $1k will stop be $10 i.e total risked becomin 10% of equity?

Originally Posted by kam6315

Greg,

Do you mean 2%-5% of net equity position i.e net of any committed to open trades or 2%-5% of gross starting equity position. e..g on $200 account if i open position micro lot $1k with stop of $10 (5% of 200). If i now open 2nd position also a micro lot $1k will stop be $10 i.e total risked becomin 10% of equity?

Scalping IS dangerous game and not for everyone! As Greg pointed out, with Risk \reward 1:2 in position trading, you could still be profitable with 40% wins. Scalping is low probability trades that can wipe out everything with a single loss!

For most people it is far better to plan trades in advance, locating entry levels and clear targets and stops. This strategic trading avoids impulse trading that cause losses and limit one to very few trades within a period. Do your research very well or subscribe to a good service.
I find little reason on how one could enter (eur/usd for example) more than 3 trades within 24hrs!

Originally Posted by snipernce

S&P 500 may affect also the EUR/USD? Looks similar .. faky breakout and broke some trendlines:

from what i've noticed snp500 and DJI got a great impact on DXY which goes like a mirror for EUR/USD
so , yea it will affect it most likely
at least that's what happened last week

looking on a daily chart and thinking if its a good time to enter short below 1.3700 stop loss between R1-R2 let say around 1.3830
RSI below 50
is this enough information? or am i missing something?

my plan to get long 13680/700 target 13820. If 13680 fails I wll get stopped out @13655. I will also renter long @13620/00. with same upside target of 13820. I will hope for a short @13820..depending though on the price action.

Originally Posted by zion

my plan to get long 13680/700 target 13820. If 13680 fails I wll get stopped out @13655. I will also renter long @13620/00. with same upside target of 13820. I will hope for a short @13820..depending though on the price action.

good luck, the 4 hr chart is looking mega bearish now, i cant go long while that is inder the MA 4HR. 13730 if it holds may be a good entry. At the moment any price under the 13700 looks incredibly bearish to me, and i am palying longs and shorts daily but the shorts are winning and far stronger and quicker profits right now. The 4hr trend needs to cross upwards for me to lay for long trades of more than 100 pips.