Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

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Aud/Usd:


I was asked a little earlier what my view of Aussie/Dollar is, to which I replied that I hadn't even visited a Aud/Usd Chart in weeks.

Having asked for some time to consider the matter intrigue got the better of me and for the last two hours I have been sitting with this pair to get a feel of the situation.

That is not just a bunch of words for I truly have been feeling it.

There is tremendous greed associated with this pair and possibly not least in view of the highly attractive carry-trade benefits that the pair has in addition to its glorious price growth.

The carry-trade benefits apply to positions bought.

Lets have a look then over the last couple of years...

In the melt-down of late 2008, Aud/Usd was far from immune seeing its price drop from just under parity ( 0.9850 ) to 0.6000 in the 3 months preceding November 2008.

From then it was one-way traffic all the way to what I conclude is the top of Wave 3 in November 2009 at 0.9400 at which point it proceded to bounce up and down in an 850 pip range for 5 months before descending into Wave C of Wave 4 during April and May 2010 completing its long-awaited correction a little over 0.8000

The result of Wave 4 was a net 38% Retraction of waves 1/2/3 in a very lengthy 7 months.

The summer of 2010 saw the bulls licking their not so deep wounds and realised that since they had survived the battle of wave 4 relatively unscathed that the parity goal that was so nearly attained in 2008 could be now fought for once again.

Whilst June saw them getting back on their feet and then stumbling back to the ground in their weariness by July they were fighting fit and gathering together their arms, and with steam snorting from their nostrils in pursuit of their goal.

The 14th October 2010 saw the bulls reach the walls of Parity Castle but soon retreated to the relative safety of 0.9600 ~ 0.9700 range to get their breath.

They could see it, they could taste it, the goal was firmly in their sights.

The morning of 29th October saw the bulls take a wise step back before marching steadily towards their prize... it was a 3 day march and they needed all their energy to scale the great walls before them.

On the 3rd November they gained entry to the previously forbidden kingdom and the following day, the 4th November saw them rest the night within the kingdoms walls.

For 4 days and 4 nights the Bulls feasted and celebrated their success, oblivious to a small group of them doubting their accomplishment and wondering "What now?"

Their was dis-order in the ranks and the renegade bulls decided to grab what they could and run with their riches.

Weakened by this, the bears staged a fight-back to reclaim what they believed was their invincible palace resulting in a depleted army of bulls being forced back to the Pastures of Humiliation known as Sub 0.9600

On December 1, 2010, they made once again their way to the castle walls but this time with much less passion than the times before. They were feeling heavy and exhausted and upon 10 days on foot and meandering half-heartedly along they finally reached the walls on December 14.

They arrived, some of them even touched the walls, but they had not the strength or the drive to make even an impression.

December 15 saw a large bear engulfing candle draining the bulls of all their last hopes of ever settling inside Parity Castle.

The last 2 days have been rather sad to witness, for the bulls and the bears, and worse still, there is now a Triangle Deadline in the equation.

So here we are, the early hours of December 18, 2010 and I have been asked for my view.

This is what I see:

I see Five waves complete to Parity Plus a Little.

I see a Triangle ( shown in Violet ).

I see a Fibo Hori-fan and a Fibo Verti-fan with price at a crucial stage of deep retraction vs. weakened hopes of attaining parity and holding there.

I feel extremely heavy when I look and sit with this pair, like I am being pulled down into depression.

There is nothing like a cloud of depression to undermine the forces of greed. Greed is very transient and most dis-loyal.

It will switch sides like a coward in defeat and I see a mass of bulls turning coat.

If there is a revived onslaught then I can only assume that to be an extended wave 5 and I hold little expectation of that, and even less of such holding through the winter.

I consider that Monday / Tuesday will see selling of Aussie Dollar and a test of the lower triangle line, and if which breaks and holds will take price to the 48.7% Fibo Hori-fan level before mid Jan 2011.

Thrice attempted and nothing held.... there is something magic about the number 3... time to complete the cycle now I think.

I would hazard a guess at 0.9600 1st stop and wish to reconsider matters then.

Best,

Colly
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Colly

Although I did not request the information I certainly appreciated the creativity with which it is presented, as well as the perspective. It is good to know you do not just flip an answer off the top of your head. Although that would be cool to see not easily presented in written form. : )

Question for you Colly

Is that a standard pay day for you

83K .....that`s some going

When did you start trading forex

Originally Posted by dhan1163

I read some your posts. You have entered/exited the market exactly! I'd like to learn from you. Where is You based on to trade? Fib.? Candlesticks, or combine with ..? Please, say generally. You could recomend some books or documents to read.

Thanks

Hello

thanks
well thats my job.. working for big investment fund in UK since more than 10 years
I am by background technical currency strategist
Specialized on 4 majors pairs but i prefer eurusd
Leave me your email / i will post mine on my profile (if i find how to do it ...lol)

Kr
John

Originally Posted by Thomas Long

I agree....thanks for sharing your thoughts...here is more:

Demo Trading vs. Live Trading

Many times new traders who have done well in a demo account open up a live account and things start to fall apart. Having real money on the line is very different emotionally than trading pretend money. When losing in a live account, every pip can result is feelings of frustration or pure joy. These emotions can cause traders to make different trading decisions in that live account than were made when trading in the demo account.

This usually leads to more losing trades.

But trading live and making the same decisions when no money was at risk is key to your success as a trader. No matter how hard you try, you cannot move up to the next level of trading until you learn how to risk real money. That what trading is all about. The key is to open that live account and to start out slowly.

In our DailyFX Trading Course, where we teach people about trading, we recommend new traders start out trading only one lot at a time. Keep your risk small in the beginning until you feel good about the decisions you are making. Trading in a demo will not help you practice this; you can only learn how to deal with this using real money. But that does not mean you have to take on a lot of risk to prove anything to anybody. You are just moving up to the next level of trading. Take your time, as the more practice you get trading live, the better chance you have a becoming a profitable trader.

I totally agree....thats why self contemplation on demo account is a non sense... the most important things are : Money management, Consistency and patience... and dont forget that your worse enemy is not the market but yourself and the human cupidity !!!

Was it a demo account ?

It shows no credit in , etc so apologies for the earlier question

Thanks for clearing that Zix25

Originally Posted by Colly

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Aud/Usd:

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Do cable next!

Originally Posted by KUTERO

#EurUsd 60M updated at 1831 gmt- three long legged doji #EurUsd 60M updated at 1831 gmt- three long legged doji on Twitpic

Thanks for the chart Captain. For those new to trading trying to cram so much in our heads as I'm doing, we don't always see these patterns. Reading the definition, this could just be indecision that could just be a consolidation before continuing the journey south.

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Investopedia explains Long-Legged Doji
Long-legged doji candles are deemed to be the most significant when they occur during a strong uptrend or downtrend. The long-legged doji suggests that the forces of supply and demand are nearing equilibrium and that a shift in the direction of the trend may be coming.
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So much for my break from the charts.

Originally Posted by Trusted

Question for you Colly

Is that a standard pay day for you

83K .....that`s some going

When did you start trading forex

"Standard" ?!

I believe in limitless and boundless possibilities... for me the term is limiting and best avoided.

"When did I start....?"

When do I stop?! Do You see the hours I work ?



This sums up Fx where thoughts of standard may be....





well it's a strange old game - you learn it slow
one step forward and it's back to go
you're standing on the throttle
you're standing on the breaks
in the groove 'til you make a mistake

sometimes you're the windshield
sometimes you're the bug
sometimes it all comes together baby
sometimes you're a fool in love
sometimes you're the louisville slugger
sometimes you're the ball
sometimes it all comes together baby
sometimes you're going to lose it all

you gotta know happy - you gotta know glad
because you're gonna know lonely
and you're gonna know bad
when you're rippin' and a ridin'
and you're coming on strong
you start slippin' and slidin'
and it all goes wrong because

sometimes you're the windshield
sometimes you're the bug
sometimes it all comes together baby
sometimes you're a fool in love
sometimes you're the louisville slugger baby
sometimes you're the ball
sometimes it all comes together baby
sometimes you're going to lose it all

one day you got the glory
one day you got none
one day you're a diamond
and then you're a stone
everything can change
in the blink of an eye
so let the good times roll
before we say goodbye, because

sometimes you're the windshield
sometimes you're the bug
sometimes it all comes together baby
sometimes you're a fool in love
sometimes you're the louisville slugger baby
sometimes you're the ball
sometimes it all comes together baby
sometimes you're going to lose it all

Originally Posted by cableforlife

Do cable next!

Whilst I would have a creative feast to do so....

You think I'm that easy ?!

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It was most interesting to consider Aud/Usd last night this morning, and particularly to note the massive divergence on the RSI/Price action between Oct and Dec per the Day Chart.

I've spent some time with several Usd crosses now and there appears to be a common pattern emerging.

It seems to me, ( and don't ask me fundamentally the reasons for I wouldn't have a clue ) that something is going to trigger a sustained sell-off where the Usd crossed pairs are concerned.

I am actually tempted to take some minor positions and sell anything xxx/Usd and buy anything Usd/xxx but not until perhaps monday late, through to say wednesday next week and see how it looks en route but with a view to holding them a few weeks or more.

My team consists of scalpers ( apart from me who plays at it ) and one of them is forever reminding me the buying/selling activity of equities and Thank God for even having been told many times I still in this moment cannot recall what that does to the Dollar Index and conversely Eur/Usd. I feel that it may actually be equity activity that will cause the trigger to be pulled but there are other factors and unless I were to meditate on the matter then I stay clue-less. I know that I am shown what is pertinent and request nothing for my intention is already known and the Law of Intention dictates that if this is something that I need to see then it shall be given... God willing.

Anyway, aside of the reasons and the metaphysics of it all, heres my preferred count for Euro Dollar and I include 10m, 1h and 3h charts to present the picture.

All the best,

Colly
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Originally Posted by brianborn1968

It feels good to wake up a spot a turn and get it correct. It doesn't happen all the time. Here is an updated chart with possible retrace zone and target zone. Price dropped and just touch both the TL and Support Zone. Also I'm sharing my EW count. Not sure how accurate it will be, but I'm still learning.

Attachment 74483

Attachment 74481

Are team is seeing a big retracement for next week! Euro was carry down cause the ireland downgrade but as everyone know news vanish in time plus gov action will make bulls hungry again. Time to buy,

Follow us @ Forexcops (Forexcops) on Twitter

Originally Posted by Chrisfx92

Some of you asked me a couple of months ago to announce my future trades:

I trade several times a year, as some of you (Stryker, etc.,.) know. My last trade was to buy EUR at 1.23 in June and sell it at 1.37, and I then decided to move to options in the hope of gaining hundreds of percents instead of annualized 25 % gains.

I believe the Euro will be at 1.45 or higher next August, based purely on the Fundamentals (I will debate this with anyone who cares in a separate post). Therefore I am executing a highly disciplined strategy of buying 20 % of my 'risk capital' in the 1.33 area, 35 % in the 1.28 area and 45 % just above 1.2000 where I would be able to buy $ 500,000 of 1.3500 Calls for approx. $ 8,000 (based on current 15-cent out-of-the-money extrapolation).

This morning I purchased the EUR 1.35 Sept. 1st Calls for 0.0525 with 20 % of my funds. If the Euro goes straight up and doesn't look back I will make a profit. If it declines I will be ready at each stage to increase my stake.

I will almost definitely not wait till Sept. 1st to liquidate but will liquidate any and all of the positions if prices get ahead of themselves and rise too fast, thereby taking advantage of options volatility.

I will announce each trade in real time, for those interested.

If the Euro does not reach 1.4000 by Sept. 1st I shall publicly eat humble pie on this Board.

Good luck, everyone, whatever your strategy.

P.S., The Euro crisis is completely overblown. The Dollar is in a far worse crisis with California, New Jersey and New York bankrupt (According to the BIS, the prospects for the U.S., U.K. and Japan are infinitely worse than for Spain and Ireland). At least the Eurozone is doing something about their crisis. The U.S. Government is simply printing more Dollars and buying more Bonds in the vain hope of keeping interest rates low!

Hi ChrisFX,

Thank you for the realtime call. I see that you are willing to buy a 1.35 call options at 1.20 with 45% of your risk capital. The option expires Sep 1 2011, yes? Then I believe it's gonna be dirt-cheap then!

Is there a possibility that you will think that you are wrong, and close out everything, or simply put, where's your stop loss?

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Eur/Usd:


The Simplistic View



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Originally Posted by zifx25

Hello

thanks
well thats my job.. working for big investment fund in UK since more than 10 years
I am by background technical currency strategist
Specialized on 4 majors pairs but i prefer eurusd
Leave me your email / i will post mine on my profile (if i find how to do it ...lol)

Kr
John

Hi, Good Morning. John
I Have send a my e-mail to you. Hopefully, I could learn st more from you.

Thanks you very much
Have a good weekend