Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Colly

~~~~~~~~~~ Happy New Year Brother ~~~~~~~~~~

Love you my brother. Same too you!!!!!!!!!!!



All you guys, Happy Holidays!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All indicator(RSI, MACD, and SAR) says it's positive bullish..

So what was the purpose of the spike?

Originally Posted by s_slo87

So what was the purpose of the spike?

The spike has no purpose.

It is simply a reflection of a consequence.

Daily charts show the following:

3-day SMA (early warning) is strongly up
10-day SMA (good indicator) has bottomed and turned upwards
30-day SMA (my confirmation indicator) looks like it's bottoming after turning down mid-November.

MACD, RSI and MOM indicators (my favourites) are ALL STRONGLY UP.

WEEKLY CHART: 75 % of the a/m indicators are bullish

MONTHLY CHART: MACD/RSI/MOM are bullish, but the largely negative SMAs give conflicting signals with the 10-month bottoming but the 3-month and 30-month SMAs strongly down.

SUMMARY of all my indicators and Fundamentals (which many here despise):
There's going to be a massive break upwards that will continue till the summer. My guess is a quick break-up to above 1.4000 in January and a move above 1.500 by August based on the largely bullish technical indicators mentioned above and, most importantly for me, the fundamental news (Spanish sovereign bonds are showing signs of strength, oil prices are sky-rocketing and will benefit Eurozone exporters while damaging U.S. disposable income, U.S. housing prices will decline another 15 % in 2011 and GDP growth will be back down to 1.5 %, the double whammy of a world awash in monetized Dollars and strong indications that literally $$$ trillions-worth of sovereign wealth funds will reduce their Dollar holdings). Where the smart money goes, so go I.

Let's see how the crystal ball plays out.

#EurUsd 4H+Daily updated at 0714 gmt #EurUsd 4H+Daily updated at 0714 gmt on Twitpic

1.35-1.3055 Drop = .618 retracment @1.3380
Possible reversal if bearish

Originally Posted by Colly

The spike has no purpose.

It is simply a reflection of a consequence.

I mean is it just speculators in the market betting on the Euro going up with what is going on in the US? It seems like things are better in the US than in Europe. I'm just confused because i've been caught on the wrong side lately.

Originally Posted by Chrisfx92

Daily charts show the following:

3-day SMA (early warning) is strongly up
10-day SMA (good indicator) has bottomed and turned upwards
30-day SMA (my confirmation indicator) looks like it's bottoming after turning down mid-November.

MACD, RSI and MOM indicators (my favourites) are ALL STRONGLY UP.

WEEKLY CHART: 75 % of the a/m indicators are bullish

MONTHLY CHART: MACD/RSI/MOM are bullish, but the largely negative SMAs give conflicting signals with the 10-month bottoming but the 3-month and 30-month SMAs strongly down.

SUMMARY of all my indicators and Fundamentals (which many here despise):
There's going to be a massive break upwards that will continue till the summer. My guess is a quick break-up to above 1.4000 in January and a move above 1.500 by August based on the largely bullish technical indicators mentioned above and, most importantly for me, the fundamental news (Spanish sovereign bonds are showing signs of strength, oil prices are sky-rocketing and will benefit Eurozone exporters while damaging U.S. disposable income, U.S. housing prices will decline another 15 % in 2011 and GDP growth will be back down to 1.5 %, the double whammy of a world awash in monetized Dollars and strong indications that literally $$$ trillions-worth of sovereign wealth funds will reduce their Dollar holdings). Where the smart money goes, so go I.

Let's see how the crystal ball plays out.

Hi Chris,

Nice to see You.

So, given the above considerations, what is, or will be, Your trade strategy ?

Best,

Colly
---

Originally Posted by s_slo87

I mean is it just speculators in the market betting on the Euro going up with what is going on in the US? It seems like things are better in the US than in Europe. I'm just confused because i've been caught on the wrong side lately.

Aha, I see.

well, that "spike", was only actually about 100 pips.

Thats really a drop in the ocean if You think about it.

Originally Posted by Colly

Aha, I see.

well, that "spike", was only actually about 100 pips.

Thats really a drop in the ocean if You think about it.

It might be a drop for people who have a large account, but for someone for me that can make or break me. I was only curious as to why it spiked as it did. If i took a smaller lot it wouldn't have hurt as bad as i was short.

Originally Posted by s_slo87

It might be a drop for people who have a large account, but for someone for me that can make or break me. I was only curious as to why it spiked as it did. If i took a smaller lot it wouldn't have hurt as bad as i was short.

Market is too thin Slo, that makes rooting out SL's a lot easier. Besides, last week before market closed for Christmas you might have noticed a spike then too. It was intervention by Swiss National bank it was evident in CHF as well.

SN Bankers have been buying euro to weaken CHF and market keeps pushing CHF higher. It is there attempt to salvage their position for book closure. It doesn't matter how liquid or illiquid the market is, what matters is the closing price which would be reflected in the books.

I hope this helped somewhat to put things in perspective.

Originally Posted by s_slo87

It might be a drop for people who have a large account, but for someone for me that can make or break me. I was only curious as to why it spiked as it did. If i took a smaller lot it wouldn't have hurt as bad as i was short.

Hmmmm, reading between the lines, had You a bigger account then You would have had a bigger lot.

Just a hunch

Hopefully EUR/USD can break 1 more resistance at 1.3380..=) Anyone can give me a scenario after that? Can I sleep after that?

Originally Posted by s_slo87

It might be a drop for people who have a large account, but for someone for me that can make or break me. I was only curious as to why it spiked as it did. If i took a smaller lot it wouldn't have hurt as bad as i was short.

Originally Posted by Colly

Aha, I see.

well, that "spike", was only actually about 100 pips.

Thats really a drop in the ocean if You think about it.

I quote, Lao Tsu from the Tao Te Ching:

"Those that run do not get far"

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