Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by asherewt

Sir, pleasure was all mine, I'm glad that at least someone was paying attention ....

I was paying attention, too, Asherewt! Nice chart & strong technical arguments. Thanks for posting. I entered a long order on the EURUSD at 1.3307, but my decision to enter was based on how the pair's daily chart was being laid out. Your arguments enhance my hopes.

Regards,
Malabar

Originally Posted by asherewt

Last chart from 2010, wish you a very happy new year and hope everyone collects a ton of pips.

Just a quick note regarding EURUSD or any other USD based pair. As I've said this before as well and repeat myself (if it helps even one single Trader on this planet) that EURUSD can not be shorted until and unless US$ decides to have a Rally on the upside which clealry isnt the case as we can see the chart.

Analysing a particular pair is one thing but not analysing the fundamentals of both the currencies involved in the pair is like making decisions on the basis of missing information.

I agree that Euro has problems and is depressed as the Currency but so is true for US$, its only a matter of looking at charts who is more weaker then other to decide where the next few hundred pips are hidden ...

Good luck and Sorry for making it too long.
my 2 cents.

Asher, I get a lot from your charts and sometimes forget some of the many ideas that I've been putting in my head. Being that I trade more shorter trends and go both short and long a pair, I can go with your cloud analysis or against it, but overall I do find it useful. Right now I'm finding that either win or lose, I'm learning by doing. No matter how many times my mother showed me how to tie my shoes, I could never get it until I started doing it myself.

Thanks for the charts and I hope you have a wonderful new year!

Originally Posted by Flyba

Can you realistically see it heading above 1.36 ? Wouldn't that change the entire structure and call for a bullish outlook going forward ?

Anything is a possibility. We can see 1.50 as easily as we can see 1.00. Even with views from others like Asher's chart of the $index, I'm still bearish on this pair, but with recent price action, I'm short term bullish on this pair now. Recently I've been reading more of EWT and Fibonacci strategies and below is a chart playing with some ideas I have learned.

I think there is a good possibility that the current up trend can last until at least 1.378 as long as my count is correct and could go as high as 1.40 before turning back down. I feel that 1.378 is the better bet for the high because of several reasons.

1. 61.8% retracement from the Nov high to the Dec low
2. 138.2% extension and the abc correction
3. Fib time line is around the 138.2% extension from the Nov high to the Dec low

This is the first I have played around with any kind of fibs dealing with time. On this 4h chart, Wave a lasted 57 bars and if my project is correct, then Wave c will end between the 138.2-161.8% extension around the same 57 bars.

I sure hope that I'm getting a better understanding of EW as it sure is difficult to learn.

If my analysis is correct and we see 5 waves down, then the extreme ending point would be 1.0845.

Start of Wave 1 = 1.4282
End of Wave 1 = 1.2969
Difference = 0.1313

0.1313 x 1.618 = 0.2124
1.2969 - 0.2124 = 1.0845

This calculation and theory came from the book...

"Fibonacci Application and Strategies for Traders" by Robert Fischer

Quote from the book...

"Whenever there is a 3-swing pattern, the extreme point of wave 5 can be calculated using the Fibonacci ratio 1.618. It is not possible to know whether this extreme point will ever be reached, but we do know that this precalculated price level is very important should the price reach this level." page 32

How I interpret this quote is that if price would drop to the extreme level of 1.0845, this would be a likely place for a reversal.

For anyone reading this, be warned that I'm a newb (one who is new, possibly a little overconfident about it, but willing to learn and fix their errors to move out of that stage) and my view next week may be totally different. This is my warning to you to do your own analysis. Do not blindly following my advise because there is a chance, maybe a good chance that I have no clue as to what I am doing.

In the following scenario, wave 3 of (c) is either complete or close to it. If so, we could see a 38.2% retracement to touch the lower part of the upward channel.

Any thoughts or comments from others is welcome and encouraged.

Last week the volume was very low due to new year.

I expect the EUR/USD parity to test 1.3390 and 1.3420.Either from 1.3390 or 1.3420 sales will take place.

The day will end with a close at the lowest of the day (+20 pips).

The down trend will continue for 2 (+1) days.

The down trend will end at 1.3145 (+-) 45 pips.

The probability of occurance is %78.

These are the result of my program written in prolog based on MS Stock.

Originally Posted by zion

long Eur/usd 13150 target 13450 then 13780.

Happy new year everyone! I am wishing you a healthy, lovely and prosperous 2011. Excessive and Consistent PIPS gains.

Closed all my SWING eur/usd long positions since 20th @13400. Started building short SWING trades on this pair. I am combining it with aud/usd short and usd/cad long as well. Basically Betting on a strong US$ mid term. I will opt out on these positions once eur/usd goes above 13450 or USD/CAD goes lower than 9950 once more.

My take is for eur/usd to retest 13000 handle and see where we go from there. Break calls for 12600. Hold calls for 13780 from there. However if 13500 is broken then 13780 comes into to possible 14400ish

Eur/Usd looks bullish to me but im still new at this. Although it does look like its in a descending triangle on the monthly but looks like it has a to come up a couple more points before it comes back down.

Hi

This is my first post on FXCM, but I'd like to post a chart and request some feedback if possible. I've been trading demos all year whilst learning and I started trading live New Years Eve. I have 3 open positions, long USDJPY/CHF and short EURUSD.

My preference is long term trades and I focus much of my attention on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. The chart I have hopefully uploaded is of the monthly EURUSD chart.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say I think the Euro is heading lower to around the 1.24-1.26 level over the next month or so.

I am still learning and any feedback would be appreciated

Happy New Year & All the Best for 2011!!!

Originally Posted by Rhj1991

Eur/Usd looks bullish to me but im still new at this. Although it does look like its in a descending triangle on the monthly but looks like it has a to come up a couple more points before it comes back down.

Sure..overall bullish on a longer term. On the shorter term it is bearish IMHO. You must understand that whenever there is a strong rally, many traders jump on the bullish side and when there is a strong selling they jump to the bear side. They also abandon all their strategies and analysis and even tweak them to support the current situation. We are however human and emotions and momentum do have controlling influence. We wanna go with the crowd. We dont want to seem to stand alone! In the end we all lose our shirts. Because when it is apparent to everyone that prices are going up..then probably smartmoney have finished buying and selling to dump money as long as they stay solvent...until they are not able to buy again and then smartmoney starts buying again from dump money (stop losses,,cutting losses...escape from positions for due to fear..) and the cycle continues.
You can see from the above why it is difficult to make money here cos of our psyche. Meanwhile it is the easiest place to make money for those few that "got it"

Happy New Year and best of lucks

Cannot see how the Euro can maintain a Bullish trend given the fundamentals despite the technicals. I am bearish on the Euro. The markets see regions within the zone as being insolvent. 2011 will be a difficult year for the currency and whilst it will likely survive it will not be without it difficulty. I am shoprting below 1.35.

Further to my earlier post I would like to make my chart clearer because I posted it in haste.

Blue Fib - Upwards

Red Fib - Downwards

Black Fib - Current (Potential retracement)

Please forgive me if it sounds like I'm speaking double dutch but I am still learning FX lingo.

It can be seen from my chart that Monday's opening will be below an intersection of 3 trend lines at the 1.34600 level. I think that over the coming month the price will retrace 161.8 to approx 1.26 before moving higher. I think that there is a Butterfly pattern forming, but I could be wrong!

Any feedback would be appreciated.

Check out: Chart Patterns | Bearish Abcd Pattern | Forex | FX360

Another Correction - Sorry!

Feedback Welcome

Originally Posted by dhan1163

Thank you for your insights. "..My guess is a quick break-up to above 1.4000 in January..." means SDD(15,5,5) 0r SSD(14,3,3) at weekly-chart will oversold and crossing up. I'm waiting for this event to play long E/U (but, while E/U is going up to range Fib. 50%+. It could have a retracement then I'm short when confirming the retracement for this time. Then, long again until the trend is reversing.)

Please, continue your post.

Happy new year.

Thanks, Dhan1163.
On the daily chart the MACD/RSI/MOM indicators are flashing the same bullish signals as in early September preceding a 15 cent rise within 30 days. The 30 day SMA is basing beautifully and is about to be crossed by the 10 SMA. This is why I believe the short term movement will take the pair above 1.400 this month, and maybe even a spike up to the 1.4800 area.