Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Zooming out to the monthly, After that run up, EU looks to be making a falling wedge, question is if it will come down to test that support area around 1.13+ area. RSI sloping downward as well, interesting to see how it goes. What are your thoughts? GL all.

Originally Posted by Mary R

Hi Chris
That was a good call last week. However, if you watched the EURUSD on Thursday the big move up didn't really occur until Mr. Trichet talked about inflation. Then the EUR spiked up from 1.305 to 1.34. So I don't really think the bond auctions drove the action. There was so much international support for the auctions I think the news was already priced in.
the issue is, do you really think that the ECB is going into a tightening status with everything else going on?
Also, why would higher energy prices be good news for EU manufacturers? The EU also imports oil, they could be harmed even more than the US by oil because of the strong euro now.

The "so much international support" you refer to is precisely the reason the Dollar has lost its (irrational) fear advantage. There is no longer widespread talk of the Euro breaking up.

The ECB (descendant of the Bundesbank) is a famed inflation fighter and will tighten at the first serious sign of inflation. Europeans attach more importance to inflation than to growth. The U.S. attitude is exactly the opposite, which is why the bubble has begun growing again.

High oil prices are (relatively) great news for Europeans because:

a) European consumers are far better at coping with higher energy prices than are Americans owing to higher savings rates, better fuel efficiency and the resulting boost for recycling and green technologies;

b) Higher oil prices enrich the oil producers who are Germany's largest export clients. At $ 147/bbl in 2008 Germany's exports broke all records while U.S. exports continued to languish. The U.S.A. is a consumer economy. The Eurozone is a manufacturing economy.

Also, a strong Euro reduces Eurozone import prices and caps inflation which, as I already mentioned, is the ECB's prime concern. Only the British follow the U.S. "Consume and spend" model, so they are also in deep fundamental trouble.

Originally Posted by FXTA

Zooming out to the monthly, After that run up, EU looks to be making a falling wedge, question is if it will come down to test that support area around 1.13+ area. RSI sloping downward as well, interesting to see how it goes. What are your thoughts? GL all.

Sorry, FXTA, but I see the chart completely differently. It looks to me like a strong monthly ascent with the RSI/MACD/MOM largely positive with little divergence.

I don't have time to draw charts right now, but the Big Picture for me on the monthly is the huge new low from 2008 - 2010 which is completely contradicted by the rising MACD and MOM during the same period. Now, THAT is what I call a divergence.

The weekly chart shows the same, while the Daily shows even more positive divergences and a huge base similar to the one in late August/early September that preceded a massive (1600 bip?) upwards move.

Originally Posted by nopainnogain

what time frame is your chart.

It's a daily chart man, thanks

Originally Posted by cw1

Glad to know your back on the run Bro.
Will skype ya over the weekend or sunday eve
Keep well ....treat the cat to some chicken !!!!!!

Originally Posted by Virgo

Hi colly,

I am so glad you are back and hope you fully recover over the weekend! I am a newb, don't like to say much instead try to read posts from experts like yourself, Zion and few others... to absorb as much as I can to decrease my losses and increase profit.
I missed having you hear last week and was about to search for you on other forms as I thoughts you might have left us.

Everyone, have a very happy and safe weekend!

Originally Posted by martyman13

Colly, good to know that the nasties haven't scared you away from this forum. Wishing you well (I'm in the same boat as you, just not as bad), and hoping that this forum is taken back on the right track next week.

Originally Posted by AyoBro

Colly hasn't gone for good, I don't think. Unless you spoken to him more recently than I have, last I heard(Friday we spoke about possible monthly-weekly-daily turns) he was recuperating from last weeks illness. He should be back at full steam this week but was contemplating a break from the forum.

.

Thank You for Your kind words

A couple of points... Ayo is correct, I havn't gone for good, but I shall be making some adjustments to time-management and these were due for the New Year regardless of recent posts referred to.

Whilst I have made a commitment to avoid reference to my passion for higher Truth I have to make a slight concession in what I wish to say next.

It is one of my deepest and most heart-felt beliefs that we are all ever only coming from our Whole-ness or our wounded-ness. I believe in One-ness and that at the core of our BE-ing that we are indeed all Brothers and Sisters. I appreciate and fully understand that not all see it this way, yet, and all I can do is to be the best me I can be in the face of anyone who would seek to undermine or attack me. In my quiter moments I pray for such people and I take time to send to them compassion... the highest form of healing.... next that is, to gratitude.

I bear no grudge.

I wish You all well......, everyone, and I look forward to sharing with You soon.

Colly
---

Been short of e/u since Friday at 3419 and Gold at 1383. Not much activity so far in Asian session however, move lower by e/u and gold to Friday lows would get the ball rolling for speedy downside.

Good morning Colly,

How are you? I haven't been around for last 3 days but didn't see you earlier last week. I hope everything is fine.

May be this can help you a bit ... YouTube - JESSE LIVERMORE - legendary stock trader

Pay some special attention to his rules listed in the video specially the Rule no.5 which says "Never Sell because of a great rise in Price. It can always go higher" ...

Originally Posted by cw1

Ok i have read these quotes fro this Jesse guy you have been poisting...I kinda like them... Is it a autobiography this guy has for sale?? If yes could you be kind enough to let me know as i may wanna buy it. He seems to talk sense about the market in general.....Im a solid Brit that drinks tea and dunks his jammie dodgesrs and custard creams whilst taking profits......Can a brit like me read this bool withought being carried away is the question !! lol

thanks

Originally Posted by Bari Baig

Good morning Colly,

How are you? I haven't been around for last 3 days but didn't see you earlier last week. I hope everything is fine.

Hi Bari

Last week asleep... for the most part.

All is fine now, except I can't stop eating. I only ate 2 bowls of cereal in 5 days and I must be making up for lost calories now I guess.

Its real early morning here in England, 5:25am, so I will catch some sleep until just before London open... see You then and Good Luck.

Originally Posted by Bari Baig

Been short of e/u since Friday at 3419 and Gold at 1383. Not much activity so far in Asian session however, move lower by e/u and gold to Friday lows would get the ball rolling for speedy downside.

Just short sold gbp/usd at 5863s with TP 5753

Originally Posted by Colly

Hi Bari

Last week asleep... for the most part.

All is fine now, except I can't stop eating. I only ate 2 bowls of cereal in 5 days and I must be making up for lost calories now I guess.

Its real early morning here in England, 5:25am, so I will catch some sleep until just before London open... see You then and Good Luck.

Bro, glad you are good now.
You can make up for lost calories by sucking in more pips...
Cheers.

Originally Posted by stanchiam

Bro, glad you are good now.
You can make up for lost calories by sucking in more pips...
Cheers.

haha I believe that is perhaps the best suggestion Good one Stanchiam

Originally Posted by Bari Baig

Been short of e/u since Friday at 3419 and Gold at 1383. Not much activity so far in Asian session however, move lower by e/u and gold to Friday lows would get the ball rolling for speedy downside.

Originally Posted by Bari Baig

Just short sold gbp/usd at 5863s with TP 5753

e/u TP 3143 and for Gold $1349

eu hourly chart, extended w5 count
99% i am wrong and 1 more leg up...lol

EUR/USD January 17, 2010

EUR/USD is now trading below its Friday low which means that the currency pair is in a downtrend. The switch of trend in the 60 minute time frame occurred in the height of long term resistance (1.34-1.3450). This means that short term technical’s as the 60 min time frame and long term technical’s as the daily time frame favors a continuation of the downtrend. Today's target is 1.3150 which is the first level of strong support. This scenario is valid as long as price trades below 1.3400.

As usual we need to keep a good balance between risk and potential reward. A good rule of thumb is to trade opportunities where we see the potential to make at least 2 dollars for every dollar that we plan to risk.

EUR/USD 60 min chart


Regards

Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)
azambrano@fxcm.com

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