Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

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E/U is ready going up to R2 =1.3575 ( 5-EW of 2h-chart finished at 1.35018. This is a extension. It could be forming pattern H&S to retrace later on)

After that It is retracing, then going up to 1.5

I think I see a 5 wave down on 5 & 10 min, .618= 1.3511 or are we breaking to new highs? Looking for a place to short any suggestions?

Originally Posted by Chrisfx92

Well: Yes, really. Really.

Bail-outs for Greece and Ireland are far less meaningful and significant than bail-outs for California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York! You are comparing a troubled 5 % of Eurozone GDP with a troubled 50 % of U.S. GDP!

You also ignore the $ 3 trillion "Quantitative Easing" effected by the U.S. already, at historically low interest rates, without any positive effect on Unemployment (at 23 % when all factors from U1 - U9 are included), housing or GDP.

I feel you have a very U.S. Media-biased view of global macroeconomics.

I'll see you at 1.6000 before you see me at 1.0000.

Good luck!

Count me in, I'd see you at 1.00 a lot sooner.

I think you're also ignoring EU's QE.

Marcus, did you see how price traveled to 346s and is now back up testing the neckline, the 3rd leg lower would now take e/u to 3455. Yes only 10 pips difference at which point after a push up to 347 price would stall and fall down to 324s [This directional move is courtesy of A.I aided very short frequency model]

Cheers

patience , always wait for confirmation

Hi everybody

Originally Posted by Chrisfx92

Well: Yes, really. Really.

Bail-outs for Greece and Ireland are far less meaningful and significant than bail-outs for California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York! You are comparing a troubled 5 % of Eurozone GDP with a troubled 50 % of U.S. GDP!

You also ignore the $ 3 trillion "Quantitative Easing" effected by the U.S. already, at historically low interest rates, without any positive effect on Unemployment (at 23 % when all factors from U1 - U9 are included), housing or GDP.

I feel you have a very U.S. Media-biased view of global macroeconomics.

I'll see you at 1.6000 before you see me at 1.0000.

Good luck!

There won't be any state bailouts . The states have sufficient resources to balance their budgets. There may be some municipal defaults and/or bankruptcies, but it is unlikely to affect the dollar. In fact , there have already been a few municipalities which have not been able to make their obligations and its not even making headlines . Very small percentage of US GDP

Bari - Cool! Thank you.

My fellow new guys, did you catch that? If not, go back to the exchange between Bari and I over the last hour or so.

Originally Posted by giaingan

Hi everybody

Hi, giaingan

Originally Posted by nopainnogain

patience , always wait for confirmation

What signal am I looking for?
Thanx

i m not an expert in waves , but this count seems good , i dont know about you .

but the trend seems quite good till now important the 1.3400/1.3350 as a key for this trend .

Attachment 76494

good luck every one

Originally Posted by Mary R

There won't be any state bailouts . The states have sufficient resources to balance their budgets. There may be some municipal defaults and/or bankruptcies, but it is unlikely to affect the dollar. In fact , there have already been a few municipalities which have not been able to make their obligations and its not even making headlines . Very small percentage of US GDP

I was responding to Spartan_Forex. There is so much more to the U.S. crisis than merely deteriorating budgets: GDP growth last quarter was mainly due to inventory build-up by companies flush with cash. Consumers weren't buying. Unemployment is at historical highs, even with the true figure fudged by glaring omissions and convenient insertion of the Birth-Death rate. Growth is anaemic despite record low interest rates, while inflation is increasing, which leaves the Fed in a quandary as how to retain low rates without stoking inflation further, or how to raise interest rates to reduce inflation without killing the economy. The Trade Deficit is stubborn and endemic. The U.S.'s net foreign debt is a staggering $ 3 trillion and rising. Housing (a major component of consumer spending and therefore GDP) is set to decline further in 2011. Foreclosures are at the same record highs as 2010 and are forecasted again to top one million. The Fed and Treasury are combining to produce and buy their own Bonds and TBills disguised as "household purchases". Energy rices are set to rise and inflict more pain. And so on.

So I don't see any single instrument of "Dollar Strength" other than the "Fear Factor" which may yet again arise as a result of crass stupidity by North Korea or Iran.

Originally Posted by Chrisfx92

Well: Yes, really. Really.

Bail-outs for Greece and Ireland are far less meaningful and significant than bail-outs for California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York! You are comparing a troubled 5 % of Eurozone GDP with a troubled 50 % of U.S. GDP!

You also ignore the $ 3 trillion "Quantitative Easing" effected by the U.S. already, at historically low interest rates, without any positive effect on Unemployment (at 23 % when all factors from U1 - U9 are included), housing or GDP.

I feel you have a very U.S. Media-biased view of global macroeconomics.

I'll see you at 1.6000 before you see me at 1.0000.

Good luck!

For people expecting the muni bankruptcies to affect the market, you can read the following link
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/23/bu...3prichard.html
The fact is,there are many towns and municipalities which are having problems meeting their obligations right now. Some of them may declare bankruptcy, some may just stop paying their creditors. But that is not what is moving the financial markets or the dollar on a day to day basis.

at this point would have to see clean five waves down & retrace. of .5 to .618 or better, on small time frame. & a good confirmation on rsi or whatever tool you use for divergence. ( on 5 min. x4 crossed into area of x1 )

Originally Posted by Chrisfx92

I was responding to Spartan_Forex. There is so much more to the U.S. crisis than merely deteriorating budgets: GDP growth last quarter was mainly due to inventory build-up by companies flush with cash. Consumers weren't buying. Unemployment is at historical highs, even with the true figure fudged by glaring omissions and convenient insertion of the Birth-Death rate. Growth is anaemic despite record low interest rates, while inflation is increasing, which leaves the Fed in a quandary as how to retain low rates without stoking inflation further, or how to raise interest rates to reduce inflation without killing the economy. The Trade Deficit is stubborn and endemic. The U.S.'s net foreign debt is a staggering $ 3 trillion and rising. Housing (a major component of consumer spending and therefore GDP) is set to decline further in 2011. Foreclosures are at the same record highs as 2010 and are forecasted again to top one million. The Fed and Treasury are combining to produce and buy their own Bonds and TBills disguised as "household purchases". Energy rices are set to rise and inflict more pain. And so on.

So I don't see any single instrument of "Dollar Strength" other than the "Fear Factor" which may yet again arise as a result of crass stupidity by North Korea or Iran.

There is no question that the US economy may struggle for years to come. However, the EU is also not immune to many of the issues you discussed above either, and there is the persistent issue of mispricing of sovereign debt which has occurred over a decade, and puts Germany in the difficult position of having to come up with more money for more bailouts down the line. But Im not very good at longer term predictions, I think trading is about the day to day movements. Right now many people are short the euro and getting squeezed. So you can short the big spikes up and make a few pips here and there.