Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Zion,

What you've just described is itself Subjective and can not be classified as a -------- evidence at all.

I wrote 3 detailed replies to your previous post regarding your stand about Indicators but never got a reply from you in return.

I can also write in details and back my point with pure numbers / statistics to show you what works and what doesnt but I'm afraid I wouldnt do that if that post too is going to go without being discussed in return.

Thanks for your input by the way.
Cheers.

Originally Posted by zion

Indicators that tend to work are those that are unchanged in different timeframes and are not subjective.

Change with timeframe: MAs, Oscillators, Ichimotu, MACDs..
Subjective (high/low) :Finbonacci, trendlines, Pivots

Indicators can be useful for very short term scalping to play on volatility.

Large long term traders cause trend change. They are mostly spot on on the bottom/top. Retail traders mostly wrong at the turns. Retail traders provide liquidity required to drive move from one end to the other. Retail traders mostly right to drive a trend.
Since retail traders are mostly right driving a trend, why is it then that 95% lose their money? Yes because most money is made at the turning point and b4 a trend is established, it may have been too late. If the trend is long one..you will be lucky and make a decent profit. If it a short one, chances are that you buy/sell top/bottom.
Since market ranges 80% of the time and trends 20%...those are the reasons we lose money.
But what do brokers say...the trend is your friend? Yes it is but I need to join it as early as possible.
The difference between savvy pros and the rest of us.

INDICATORS THAT CHANGES WITH TIMEFRAME OR SUBJECTIVE HAVE LOW CHANCE OF SPOTTING TURNING POINTS

Originally Posted by asherewt

Zion,

What you've just described is itself Subjective and can not be classified as a -------- evidence at all.

I wrote 3 detailed replies to your previous post regarding your stand about Indicators but never got a reply from you in return.

I can also write in details and back my point with pure numbers / statistics to show you what works and what doesnt but I'm afraid I wouldnt do that if that post too is going to go without being discussed in return.

Thanks for your input by the way.
Cheers.

Hi Asher, My position may be classified as generalization. No doubt some may be working and also depending on the user and the market. I am in no way dismissing them.
They are useful in guiding trades on entries and profit taking in an established moves. My position is that b/cos they watch mostly rear-view mirror..they do a poor job capturing the essential turning points

Sorry Sir,

but I'm again able to spot another Generalization filled with Assumptions here as highlighted in your post.

And by the way, who said identifying the so-called Essential Turning Points are the main drivers of Profit Making Business ? it rather depends on individual's system and objectives. Trend Following for example waits for a long time in order to acquire Confirmation and once confirmed it enters into an established trend. Does that make it Non-Profitable ?

I'm sorry for coming from the opposite side but I'm feeling little uncomfortable with this generalization and under estimating of things.

In my opinion, its nothing to do what you do or what you use ... its all about how you use it, its all in our HEAD if that is not trained properly then even the most recognized system cant help you making (and most importantly keeping) profits.

Originally Posted by zion

Hi Asher, My position may be classified as generalization. No doubt some may be working and also depending on the user and the market. I am in no way dismissing them.
They are useful in guiding trades on entries and profit taking in an established moves. My position is that b/cos they watch mostly rear-view mirror..they do a poor job capturing the essential turning points

1. Indicators performance is same in longer term chart or short term. It is misleading to think of better performance in longer term!

2. Many charts present data for US session only and others present 24hrs...making application of these indicators mathematical outcome ambiguous.

3. They can be useful in to guide trades like trailing stops and/or entry or exit within a move

I wonder how would you respond if I present you a series of charts covering different timeframes (you choose) of the same Pair by using same Indicator but still showing you the same picture ... which means not changing its bias while applied on a different timeframe

Originally Posted by zion

INDICATORS THAT CHANGES WITH TIMEFRAME OR SUBJECTIVE HAVE LOW CHANCE OF SPOTTING TURNING POINTS

Originally Posted by asherewt

Sorry Sir,

but I'm again able to spot another Generalization filled with Assumptions here as highlighted in your post.

And by the way, who said identifying the so-called Essential Turning Points are the main drivers of Profit Making Business ? it rather depends on individual's system and objectives. Trend Following for example waits for a long time in order to acquire Confirmation and once confirmed it enters into an established trend. Does that make it Non-Profitable ?

I'm sorry for coming from the opposite side but I'm feeling little uncomfortable with this generalization and under estimating of things.

In my opinion, its nothing to do what you do or what you use ... its all about how you use it, its all in our HEAD if that is not trained properly then even the most recognized system cant help you making (and most importantly keeping) profits.

Asher, My position is simply my bird eye view and based on my own experience. I have walked thru most in the last several years and I am in better position ( for myself) to see what have made money for me consistently and what hasnt. Those that I follow also apply this. They called Gold/silver turning point spot on from bottom to up and now top. Many are now calling for Gold/silver correction while we went short silver 31$ after upmove from 17$. The man normally says..turning points do not need confirmation.it either fails or works..if it it fails you get off on time with small loss. He says that if you waited for confirmation, you end up entring in the middle of no where and retest action or failure could expose the trader

Originally Posted by asherewt

I wonder how would you respond if I present you a series of charts covering different timeframes (you choose) of the same Pair by using same Indicator but still showing you the same picture ... which means not changing its bias while applied on a different timeframe

Asher, any indicator that remain the same on different timeframes is very reliable and should work..that is what I mean!

Exactly right, thats what I suspected and was suggesting as well that its a view purely based on your personal obeservations. Hence can not be described as an authentic (and backed up with proper Stats) proof.

I've no problem with expressing personal observations, we all have those views. However they do not endorse or reject the validity of certain things.

Thanks, it was a nice discussion for the weekend.
Cheers.

Originally Posted by zion

Asher, My position is simply my bird eye view and based on my own experience. I have walked thru most in the last several years and I am in better position ( for myself) to see what have made money for me consistently and what hasnt. Those that I follow also apply this. They called Gold/silver turning point spot on from bottom to up and now top. Many are now calling for Gold/silver correction while we went short silver 31$ after upmove from 17$. The man normally says..turning points do not need confirmation.it either fails or works..if it it fails you get off on time with small loss. He says that if you waited for confirmation, you end up entring in the middle of no where and retest action or failure could expose the trader

OK, thanks for agreeing. Please take MA, Ichimoku (its not Ichimotu) and MACD out of your list of indicators that change when applied to a different timeframe.

Originally Posted by zion

Asher, any indicator that remain the same on different timeframes is very reliable and should work..that is what I mean!

OK, thanks for agreeing. Please take MA, Ichimoku (its not Ichimotu) and MACD out of your list of indicators that change when applied to a different timeframe.[/QUOTE]

They do change with same parameters applied on different timeframes ! Unless you change the parameters which to me does not show anything. 20MA on 1hr is same as 200MA on 10minutes chart for instance.

I give up ...

have a nice weekend Zion.

Originally Posted by zion

OK, thanks for agreeing. Please take MA, Ichimoku (its not Ichimotu) and MACD out of your list of indicators that change when applied to a different timeframe.

They do change with same parameters applied on different timeframes ! Unless you change the parameters which to me does not show anything. 20MA on 1hr is same as 200MA on 10minutes chart for instance.[/QUOTE]

Originally Posted by asherewt

I give up ...

have a nice weekend Zion.





They do change with same parameters applied on different timeframes ! Unless you change the parameters which to me does not show anything. 20MA on 1hr is same as 200MA on 10minutes chart for instance.

[/QUOTE]

You too..have fun!

Guys, what do you think? is this scenario possible?

Originally Posted by sabrumea

Guys, what do you think? is this scenario possible?

Trendlines are fickleminded and changeable to fit the situation. 2-3 points do not make up a trendline. In my view, a trendline must be constantly tested from the upside and downside to be significant. Even then, the best conclusion you can have is that "There's a high possiblility that a certain point of that particular trendline is going to be tested"

EW theory is academically sound. It's hard to argue that it does not work, like any academic studies

Using your example, Wave 4 gets into territory of Wave 1 28+, thus it is new Wave 1. What if the supposedly current Wave 2 up from 28+ exceeds the previous Wave 3 up at 42+? Well, simple redraw and relabel

Another more relevant example from your chart, in response to your question, I don't see price going to 3750, which is another 120 pips up for the whole of next week, in my view. Then are you able to explain that with EWT somehow? I'm sure you can!

Another point sidetrack a bit in response to some ongoing indicators discussion: A lot of people depends on indicators to trade. Colly got his twin RSIs, Asher got his ichimoku, MoneyInc is still exploring for better ones. Kutero and c_cubed charts also show lots of them. Even cw1, a scalper, is having one???!!!! Zion, who claim not to have one, subscribe to leopardtrader.com, can I consider that some sort of indicators off the chart? hmmm..... well, Thomas Long said before, the most important thing is that the indicator must talk to you and you can relate to it and profit from it. That's all.

None talk to me convincingly yet!


Can you see the resistance at the 37+ area in your chart? Can you see that across all major timeframes from 4hr chart onwards? Is it sometimes 37+ and sometimes 38+? or can you intepret wrongly?

Support and resistance levels are old schools teachings that will stand the test of time, as certain as the sun rises from the east. They are the laws of the market and will be respected when price reaches there, so please redraw if you have time...

Originally Posted by Paul Chin

Trendlines are fickleminded and changeable to fit the situation. 2-3 points do not make up a trendline. In my view, a trendline must be constantly tested from the upside and downside to be significant. Even then, the best conclusion you can have is that "There's a high possiblility that a certain point of that particular trendline is going to be tested"

Ewell, Thomas Long said before, the most important thing is that the indicator must talk to you and you can relate to it and profit from it. That's all.

None talk to me convincingly yet!

]

I have to ask, what do u use then basing your trade and what do u rely on.
I have been using trendlines and i can bodily say they light the path for the price to travel... If i have to pick just one tool to base a trade it is and always will be trendlines on candle stick pattern for me..
In short & simple I have stated numerous time they talk to me... and i have also stated numerous time u have to have an eye to be able to select the rt candles plotting them for the best result to base a trade..
I'm sure you are aware i have made numerous calls and all of them backed by charts with trendlines.. I have been able to pinpoint an entry and can get away with the smallest possible s/l u can think off with R/R that is quite very healthy...
I simply don't agree that trendline trading is old school perhaps u should know how to use them to be able to utilize them properly... Don't go far, just dig the charts for this month and my views which i most commonly share and u should have an idea of how powerful a tool trendline trading is if are able to use them properly..
I can't say much about other tools, but I can surely understand the importance of it to the traders applying them and basing their trades upon it. They know how to work it out and it suits them..
the funniest things are that at times everything is so clear and rt in front of us... there are some who can grab it and are profitable, then there are some who fail to see em......... When trading we conclude from the point START and we have reach the FINISH line.. .... I like to FINISH the race and for me it is trendlines that makes it happen... Im sure for others their own applied strategy based on their appropriate tools..
If you don't know how to work a tool, you should not comment on it..
With trendlines you are actually moving the price into the direction and not the other way around....

happy trading.......

Today I back tested the strategy from Asher's blog on EUR/USD from the high in early November to Friday's close and was surprised of the results.

Strategy: Simple does work | ichi360

The results...

(9) total trades for a gain of 1571 pips
(5) short gains @ 1184 pips
(1) long gain @ 552 pips
(3) short losses @ 165 pips
(0) long losses

Short gain of 393 pips (12 days)
Short gain of 381 pips (10 days)
Short loss of 47 pips (1 day)
Short loss of 50 pips (4 days)
Short gain of 16 pips (2 days)
Short gain of 113 pips (10 days)
Short loss of 68 pips (2 days)
Short gain of 281 pips (8 days)
Long gain of 552 pips (9 days) <-- position would still be open

Looking at the chart, I see that 3 out of the 4 losses were when the MA line was nearly flat. If a rule was added to only enter a trade at a certain degree of incline or decline, that would have eliminated the 3 biggest losses.

This was impressive enough where I would like to try this strategy out on a demo account. However, most demo accounts have a limit of 30 days. If anyone can recommend a demo account that will allow at least a 6 month trial, please send me a PM.

EDIT: in this strategy, a trade is only entered or exitedy after the close of a 4h candle when it breaks the MA line, not when it breaks the line. It is important to note that the close here is important to eliminate false signals.