Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by AyoBro

Nice!!!!! Like I said before, you get the job done!!!!!!

Thanks Ayo..it takes a man to make a bold call and stand by it until ended. Trading is quite a simple psychology...long at the height of bearish invasion and sell back to them when they have woken up from slumber!

Originally Posted by zion

Thanks Ayo..it takes a man to make a bold call and stand by it until ended. Trading is quite a simple psychology...long at the height of bearish invasion and sell back to them when they have woken up from slumber!

lol.......... 900+ surge and bears holding that thought that this may just be it...
Well they provide fuel to the fire...
Good job Zion, money indeed in the longs.. There is alot of disturbance in my house cuz of the renovation and my timing to trading is getting sparse..

3780-85 and no telling how far it can go if heads above it.. 2 barrier taken care of today.. how many more to follow...
Once again need these things to keep fueling the mkt........... HOUSTON..........

Gl.

Originally Posted by zion

Trading is quite a simple psychology...long at the height of bearish invasion and sell back to them when they have woken up from slumber!

I like, I'm going to have to borrow this one. Classic!!!!!!

Its possible 1.3750 may be itd10. Short from 1.3750

Originally Posted by FXspeculator

In my opinion FXCM SSI data is nothing but a bias data. It is a bad sample to gauge the market sentiment.

The reason for this is that FXCM analysts team NOWADAY seem to have a very similar view to one another. I don't see them having different idea to one another. May be some analysts are influnce by other, or perhaps it is the politic within the team - Goes against other people idea will lead you to become a very unpopular memeber. But who knows

Enough said about the team.

My point is, I am sure many FXCM retail traders put their trade base on what they analysis. If trade goes against the FXCM team you will see many fxcm traders are lock in their trade giving unreliable SSI number because majority of the traders around the world don't read what they write. Meaning this sample of SSI number does not have an accurate view of what the market as a whole are doing. But more closely to the outcome of what FXCM analyst team has "super strong view" about the market.


That's just my opinion, and just beware of this if you use FXCM SSI data

Interesting...but I think you miss the big point. Sentiment has been used for decades in the financial markets. Whether it is the put/call ratio in options, odd lot trades in the stock market, the Commitments of Traders data in futures or the Speculative Sentiment Index in FX trading here at FXCM, they all measure the same thing....the open positions of the retail traders.

Why?

Because since the beginning of trading, most retail traders have always tried to pick the tops and bottoms and typically lose in the process.

The professional traders determine the trend. If their analysis suggests that the fundamentals call for a strengthening market, they will buy. If they think the fundamentals call for a weak market, they will sell.

Since most professionals use the daily chart for their trading, if you want to include the fundamentals of market in your trading, trade in the direction of the trend on the daily chart.

Since these professionals are the big traders, they move the market. When most of them agree on the fundamentals, the trend is strong. But on the other side of those trades are the retail traders trying to pick an end to the trend.

They are betting that the professional is wrong.

Doesn't sound like a good idea if you ask me and this is one of the main reasons that most new traders end up losing money. If the retail traders load up on the buy side in a downtrend or the sell side in an uptrend, the chances of them begin wrong is more likely. This is how the professional uses this informaton.

If the market is trending down strongly and the retail trader opens three times as many buys as sells, the chance for a further move down increases. If the market is trending up strongly and the retail trader opens three times as many sells as buys, the chance for a further move up increases.

Why? Because when they realize they are wrong and the professional is right, they close their trades feeding fuel to the trending move. Their pockets are not as deep as the professionals and they cannot stay in a losing trade as long.

I prefer to wait for an SSI ratio of +3 or -3 as that means an extreme reading, which is detailed in the DailyFX Trading Course. There you will find a complete lesson on how to use the SSI in your trading. You can find that material at this link:

DailyFX Trading Course

The login is the same used to access your live FXCM account. Access is free for all live clients. If you are not yet an FXCM client, email us here at instructor@dailyfx.com and we can set you up with temporary access so you can see the type of resources we offer our live account holders.

Originally Posted by Thomas Long

Interesting...but I think you miss the big point. Sentiment has been used for decades in the financial markets. Whether it is the put/call ratio in options, odd lot trades in the stock market, the Commitments of Traders data in futures or the Speculative Sentiment Index in FX trading here at FXCM, they all measure the same thing....the open positions of the retail traders.

Why?

Because since the beginning of trading, most retail traders have always tried to pick the tops and bottoms and typically lose in the process.

The professional traders determine the trend. If their analysis suggests that the fundamentals call for a strengthening market, they will buy. If they think the fundamentals call for a weak market, they will sell.

Since most professionals use the daily chart for their trading, if you want to include the fundamentals of market in your trading, trade in the direction of the trend on the daily chart.

Since these professionals are the big traders, they move the market. When most of them agree on the fundamentals, the trend is strong. But on the other side of those trades are the retail traders trying to pick an end to the trend.

They are betting that the professional is wrong.

Doesn't sound like a good idea if you ask me and this is one of the main reasons that most new traders end up losing money. If the retail traders load up on the buy side in a downtrend or the sell side in an uptrend, the chances of them begin wrong is more likely. This is how the professional uses this informaton.

If the market is trending down strongly and the retail trader opens three times as many buys as sells, the chance for a further move down increases. If the market is trending up strongly and the retail trader opens three times as many sells as buys, the chance for a further move up increases.

Why? Because when they realize they are wrong and the professional is right, they close their trades feeding fuel to the trending move. Their pockets are not as deep as the professionals and they cannot stay in a losing trade as long.

I prefer to wait for an SSI ratio of +3 or -3 as that means an extreme reading, which is detailed in the DailyFX Trading Course. There you will find a complete lesson on how to use the SSI in your trading. You can find that material at this link:

DailyFX Trading Course

The login is the same used to access your live FXCM account. Access is free for all live clients. If you are not yet an FXCM client, email us here at instructor@dailyfx.com and we can set you up with temporary access so you can see the type of resources we offer our live account holders.

Well said Thomas. The great skill is the ability to pick top and bottoms correctly. That is when one turns a pro

I've been avoiding the pair like the plague, i got burned once on a scalp attempt earlier in the week but throwing some wood in on a short at this key level.................if we get up there, to me its worth the wait. Sell limit at 1.3822

could be decent selling opportunities unfolding on eur.chf if holds below 3028.. close higher and this to turn mega bullish..
AUD to its dual resis and finding tough going forward cuz of it...

GL..

End of upside triangle on fib ret 62% 13740/60
Exit downside imo till fib ret 38%
tp 1 13450 (fib ret 13440 and support)
tp2 13300/13280 (fib ret 62% and support area january 14th)

stop 1.3810

eurusd h4
TechSmith | Screencast.com, online video sharing, 2011-01-27_1728

eurusd d1
http://screencast.com/t/pQtcREE7OTtV

As I said, I went short yesterday at 1.37 even. The Brownies, following My instruction closed in the Wee Hours for a nice 50 pip profit.
However I left no orders for them to buy around that level. Of course I missed a very nice move up to 1.3750 while I snoozed.
Thinking about it, I may have been a bit prematuure in taking a short position One of my favorite indicators, the four hour Ichimoku showed no sign of reversal, and still doesn't. I may have been very lucky on this one.
I'm trying to get back in the trading groove. Standing four hour watches at sea really messes with ones sleeping habits. Saying Good Morning and noticing it's almost Noon. Oops.
Got a chuckle out of MoneyII's post refering to Bear (Stuff) and Bull (Stuff).
Anyway, sitting on the sideline contemplating my Navel about the pairs immediate direction.

Originally Posted by bill2759

As I said, I went short yesterday at 1.37 even. The Brownies, following My instruction closed in the Wee Hours for a nice 50 pip profit.
However I left no orders for them to buy around that level. Of course I missed a very nice move up to 1.3750 while I snoozed.
Thinking about it, I may have been a bit prematuure in taking a short position One of my favorite indicators, the four hour Ichimoku showed no sign of reversal, and still doesn't. I may have been very lucky on this one.
I'm trying to get back in the trading groove. Standing four hour watches at sea really messes with ones sleeping habits. Saying Good Morning and noticing it's almost Noon. Oops.
Got a chuckle out of MoneyII's post refering to Bear (Stuff) and Bull (Stuff).
Anyway, sitting on the sideline contemplating my Navel about the pairs immediate direction.

Welcome back Bill....good to see you posting and trading.

Hey EWT people how do you feel about this being just 1 of 5 and wave 3 going to 1.38795

Wave 1 was topped at 1.37999

Wave 2 ends around 1.3686.

Thoughts please. Larger time frames allow for this

Originally Posted by captester

Hey EWT people how do you feel about this being just 1 of 5 and wave 3 going to 1.38795

Wave 1 was topped at 1.37999

Wave 2 ends around 1.3686.

Thoughts please. Larger time frames allow for this

Good Morning


E/U has finished 5-EW at 15m-chart (1-EW at 1.35750 on 15m-chart). It's retracing in A-B-C EW.
It also is retracing A-B-C EW after finishing 5-EW (1.37519) at 1m-chart. (1-EW at 1.36479 on 1m-chart)

Moreover, CAD/J has a negative correlation with E/U ( in daily TF). CAD/J is going up more, so E/U is going down (a retravement) in daily TF.

After retracing ( look at the techical analysis of Zifx25 lately to have a estimate) , E/U continues going up to 1.5 (SSD(15,5,5) at weekly chart have been crossing up - see a my previous post)

Have a good day

Originally Posted by bill2759

As I said, I went short yesterday at 1.37 even. The Brownies, following My instruction closed in the Wee Hours for a nice 50 pip profit.
However I left no orders for them to buy around that level. Of course I missed a very nice move up to 1.3750 while I snoozed.
Thinking about it, I may have been a bit prematuure in taking a short position One of my favorite indicators, the four hour Ichimoku showed no sign of reversal, and still doesn't. I may have been very lucky on this one.
I'm trying to get back in the trading groove. Standing four hour watches at sea really messes with ones sleeping habits. Saying Good Morning and noticing it's almost Noon. Oops.
Got a chuckle out of MoneyII's post refering to Bear (Stuff) and Bull (Stuff).
Anyway, sitting on the sideline contemplating my Navel about the pairs immediate direction.

Welcome back Billy bollox !!!!

(thats a complete compliment by the way ) well done ...good drills sir

Some good stuff here this morning, again! Happy days, aside from the foot of snow blocking my back door.....

I know there's an endless variance of opinion world wide, but lately and finally, I've been reading a subtle shift in sentiment regarding the facts. What are the facts you ask? Oh um, let me connect the dots on my chart here quick and I'll get right back to ya.
>
>
>
>
>
Hmmm, yes I see. Higher highs and higher lows ever since 1.2950. Imagine that lol....

Now come on people, we got a job to do and a deadline to meet, so chop chop, get to it! Think money grows on trees? 1.4250 aint gonna happen by it's self ya know.

Happy Trading,

t3t4