Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Cool Copy That.....Just caught me on a bad day...No harm no foul....

Originally Posted by Spartan_Forex

i dont think the euro will turn yet. they need to stall price up here to get bag holders and switch their positions over to short. i think the next sideways action we seen like last week willl be the queue that the euro's trend is done. i bet they'll do the 25 bps raise this month which the market will gobble up and it will push the euro higher. i dont believe they will raise rates anymore this year.

plus they need to break the high and burn more shorts to teach them not to short here. shorts will be able to grab some pips but anything over 150 pips short will be pushing their luck imo.

we should get a sell the news type reaction on the rates if increased so that would be a good short depending on price but i think the trend will still be up even after that. really it all depends on what price we're at then.

Seems like 25bp is so expected and priced in that a 25 bp move will not drive the market higher. Any comments on 25 bp only seems to be negative news as almost 40% of economist think a 50 bp is in order. Just don't think you have another 100 or 200 pips on a single 25 bp. However, I will be more than happy to let you know the exact move, catch me in about 10 days and i'll let you know.

Originally Posted by Spartan_Forex

yes i think its gonna break its old highs. fundamentally the euro is so outta whack it isnt funny but the party will continue until oil forces them to respect the dollar. this move in the euro is nothing about the euro and all about the dollar. it will correct and when it does we'll look back and laugh at how ridiculously high the euro was. 146 is my target but who knows it could tread even a little higher. I wrote a long post earlier back to yours on the euros longer term downlook lol but a friend stopped by while i was writing it and i forgot about it and deleted it. its the way these markets work remember the hearding factor everyone is piled onto the euro train right now but make no mistake it will derail and crash. the euro banks are insolvent did everyone notice the fed loans to them also look at the who's who of banks in the usa they lent to all the insolvent one's that needed bailouts. yeah ecb is talking hawkishly but logic always wins fundamentals and they will be back peddling hard when they realize they need to go into print mode to cover all the debts they cant possibly pay back without the heavily depreciated euro. i would not be surprised if the euro ended the year around 1.18.

I've been watching the oil game, and if you live here in the U.S. as I do, then you already know that fuel prices will NOT fall all summer long, but rather increase! Why? Cause the consumers will accept, period.

I only find certain parts of this move to be funny, but most of it I take quite seriously. However, I'm always looking for my next joke... But I'm not so sure there will be a correction to the down side, not in any meaningful sense. I know it looks that way technically speaking, and I'm on board with that for the most part, but I have yet to see the main fundamental driver in either case. I'm feeling a bit impatient I suppose, and that is definitely causing an issue for me. I think that something should be/will be right around the corner, I just can't see it yet and whatever "it" may be, is driving me half nuts right about now.

But I wish you had submitted the long post you mentioned, I really would have enjoyed the read. Which is not to say re-type it all, but only to say speak your mind when it's on your mind. I do nothing less myself, good, bad, or indifferent....

I totally hear ya on the herding factor! This is the momentum I was speaking about, but currently has no real fundamental driver. I see what got us to this point, but I'm failing to see what will take us beyond. I'm not a bull or a bear currently, I'm just scalping on the side-lines so as to wait and see.

I did not notice the FED loans to the EU, could you post a link for me please?

I should have probably quoted you sentence by paragraph, but I didn't think about it until I was too far along, so screw it now... But we are currently at point break, and without something solid to play with, I just have a hard time seeing it one way or the other. But I will let you guys know when I do. So for the time being, place your bets, but do so lightly.

Like this:



Happy Trading my friend,
t3t4

the fed's loans.

i think stkelry posted a link on it. otherwise i know zerohedge.com had an article on it this weekend.

Originally Posted by Spartan_Forex

the fed's loans.

i think stkelry posted a link on it. otherwise i know zerohedge.com had an article on it this weekend.

Ow, I like that site quite a bit! Haven't been there in a while, but I'd like to quote them here:

Here’s a quiz for you. An ages old correlation that has pretty much remained rock solid is now upon us. Real estate has been highly correlated to inflation and has acted as an inflation hedge for a very long time. This makes sense, since hard assets that both throw off income and have an actual demand for physical use (in other words, they have have intrinsic value) that hold when fiat currencies assimilate toilet paper in both value and use as input prices skyrocket. But that correlation is now broken - or is it???!!!

Food, shelter, and what else? Yeah....

Thanks man,
t3t4

Originally Posted by t3t4

Ow, I like that site quite a bit! Haven't been there in a while, but I'd like to quote them here:



Food, shelter, and what else? Yeah....

Thanks man,
t3t4

that is a real good point. real estate along with everything has different scenarios.

theres soo much supply out there and more in the pipeline that it will take a long time for the market to absorb it. if inflation keeps going then those houses become un affordable if their prices dont fall. on the other hand if the dollar strengthens those house prices will fall and become affordable and may actually get bought. currently the best demand for them would be from aboard where they are affordable to them because of the exchange rates.

banks dilemma : they want the highest price they can get for them so they would like to see home prices stay here or go higher, so inflation isnt bad BUT.......

the longer they hold them the more fees hey end up paying. property taxes, depreciation by needing repairs, maintaining property, cutting grass etc....

if they hold out for higher prices they could end up losing : paying those fees to later on sell at a lower price anyways.

AIG or was it citi asked to buy back their subprime junk that the fed took as collateral from their bailouts recently.

Originally Posted by t3t4

Like this:



Happy Trading my friend,
t3t4

Is THIS 200 pips stop loss short trade?

Originally Posted by Paul Chin

Is THIS 200 pips stop loss short trade?

Well, it is a short trade and I've already suffered through a 36 pip negative, but I have yet to decide if I will add a stop or not. currently as I type, I'm only 3.2 pips (positive) ahead and I'm sure that will change by the time I hit the reply button. But currently, I have no stop. I'll decide before I go to bed.

Happy Trading,
t3t4

P.S.

Here is a one minute view of where I've been this evening.

Originally Posted by t3t4

Well, it is a short trade and I've already suffered through a 36 pip negative, but I have yet to decide if I will add a stop or not. currently as I type, I'm only 3.2 pips (positive) ahead and I'm sure that will change by the time I hit the reply button. But currently, I have no stop. I'll decide before I go to bed.

Happy Trading,
t3t4

P.S.

Here is a one minute view of where I've been this evening.

Thank you for the clarification and honesty! Should be quite fine , may you make lots of pips when you wake up!

Originally Posted by Spartan_Forex

that is a real good point. real estate along with everything has different scenarios.

theres soo much supply out there and more in the pipeline that it will take a long time for the market to absorb it. if inflation keeps going then those houses become un affordable if their prices dont fall. on the other hand if the dollar strengthens those house prices will fall and become affordable and may actually get bought. currently the best demand for them would be from aboard where they are affordable to them because of the exchange rates.

banks dilemma : they want the highest price they can get for them so they would like to see home prices stay here or go higher, so inflation isnt bad BUT.......

the longer they hold them the more fees hey end up paying. property taxes, depreciation by needing repairs, maintaining property, cutting grass etc....

if they hold out for higher prices they could end up losing : paying those fees to later on sell at a lower price anyways.

AIG or was it citi asked to buy back their subprime junk that the fed took as collateral from their bailouts recently.

This is cool, at least I think so.

You said you want inflation, I said I want deflation. It matters not who is correct, but the outcome as well as the discussion is totally relevant! So screw all the nay-sayers! That's what I say......

Anyway, unfortunately we're looking at an octagon more so then a two sided coin. it's not just simply black and white, although I will always do my best to make it so. This is laughable to me, what I'm about to say:

Remember way back when the economy was just beginning to collapse? At first who was to blame? The People? Yeah, they all went way over their heads to secure a mortgage that was only truly secured in the eyes of a bank. Well, to understand that, you have to first understand how a bank functions. Which I know that you do! But way back when most analysts were calling for untold fortunes, what happened to the economy? There was a serious fundamental driver involved here, mainly GREED. When everyone simply goes with the flow, the flow never stops, until........

Reality finally sets in and it becomes a new day in a new land and everyone is looking to point a finger at someone-else. Welcome to America, TODAY!

Now we have people that couldn't do the math but the blame is/was placed on the banks. Yeah they're all greedy freekin bastards, but also, basic human logic failed, COMPLETELY! So now what? That beloved SSN wasn't enough to back up the debt, even with all the homes thrown on top. Well, now we have QE1 and QE2 and QE3 because people didn't seem to know any better and who's fault is it???? The consumers put us here, the consumers will remove us from this point. I follow the big money, yeah, but I pay attention to the little guy always! The little guy/he/she/it, that is what moves this economy, period!

Now we can take that simple fact and run it through any one of a dozen different processors, but the hamburger you receive at the end is still just people doing what people do. I love the complexity of this game, but honestly man, some are just pushing it to make it more then what it truly is. The people started the system and the people broke the system, and yet it still functions more or less until the people say otherwise, hmmmm.

if inflation keeps going then those houses become un affordable if their prices dont fall. on the other hand if the dollar strengthens those house prices will fall and become affordable and may actually get bought.

I just wanted to specifically quote you here, since it sounds to me like "now" you are agreeing with what I said 2-3 months ago. But I don't understand fundamentals, correct? Just being a smart a$$, take no offense please. Deflation is a prerequisite, inflation is a bird that just won't fly. The EUR/USD is not different, not in any way. Same problems, same politics, but very different leaders. I do honestly have some faith in the EURO given what I've seen this year thus far, but I'm not about to turn a new religion....

Anyway, I'm very curious to see how this all unfolds. Cause right now, I have no clue!

Happy Trading my friend,

t3t4

i dont want inflation at all. i believe the market wants it so they can continue the party for a little longer.

I'm at a short position at 1.41225 which is a horrible entry on my part, but the charts are all saying it's going to go up. nothing to me says it's going to go down, which puts me in a horrible situation. I'm going the wrong way. but I'm going to extend my losses... and hope the charts changes... soon. =/ if not I have to stop this position.

Good morning, I've just switched on and see that overnight we hit 1.4268, just shy of the Nov 4th top. What's the concensus here? Is the top in, or does it have higher to go yet? Possibly the rate decision (or rate hike) will push it higher this week?

BTW I think deflation is on the way, BIG TIME!

Originally Posted by articx

I'm at a short position at 1.41225 which is a horrible entry on my part, but the charts are all saying it's going to go up. nothing to me says it's going to go down, which puts me in a horrible situation. I'm going the wrong way. but I'm going to extend my losses... and hope the charts changes... soon. =/ if not I have to stop this position.

Good morning articx, I know how it feels and I know exactly what you're going through. However, if it was me in this case I would hold on. Of course everyone's tolerance is different, but in the grand scheme of things your short position is still at a very high level. I would be patient as the probability is that will come back (with a vengeance), its just a matter of time.

deflation?!?! I never saw a deflation... it was always inflation or a stalled inflation. 2008... stocks dropped, customers spending decreased a lot as time went on... we printed a lot of dollars... dollar decreased. but products in america is still inflating. everything is just as expensive as it is. house prices didn't really dropped. it just stopped increasing. okay maybe foreclosed houses and the supply of houses increased, competition made the prices of houses go down, but it's not deflation. everything is still inflating.

I never seen deflation ever!!! i'm only 21 so what can i say... but just a thought.