Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Update...................

I like it shot at 1.49 if it spikes up there. I favor the downside, although in the past Mr. Trichet has shown no mercy to speculators who short the euro over ECB meetings. Maybe there will be one last spike up after the meeting to short

Third QE still "on the table"......

Fed’s Rosengren Says Job Growth Too Slow to Remove Stimulus

Originally Posted by AyoBro

The comments below are more like prayers. I've been tracking this drop on the EU 3-4hr side of things, for days-weeks(been faked out 2-3 times). My indies been turned south but the drops seem insignificant when the daily hasn't turned south yet, equates to flash highs(fake highs) which are shorted. The true lesson, is that while EU fights the decline because of a higher TF, the rallies to those fake highs are violent on the shorter TFs and add up quite well after going long/short/long/short/long/short. The prayers was because I thought the big drop got away from me but what do you know, a 50 fib retrace while the indies are still pointing down(short). Taaaaa...Dow suggested another high is due because ES is not finished its rally. So what I say, 'I hope the rally is fast & furious like yesterday', the new high was fake because we were still pointing short. I then said 'if the new high is slow and drawn out, then the hrlies for all 3 AU/GU/EU will recycle long and more than likely the new high won't be a fake'. I say all this to say, the drops are real, we need to find a brickwall.

Update...................Well.......A new high this morn but without the higher yielders(AU/GU). A fake, which is what I asked for anyway. I look at AU & GU daily twins, and witness these two are in serious trouble, with both hrly TFs showing that the 5/21s has crushed thru 50/100/200, with both 4hr TFs showing a rejection off of the 21 back to the downside. Checking EU, its strength is impressive, avoiding a daily rollover at the moment, so I suspect a chop upwards. The last FE extension based on 1.475-1.4889 rally was 1.23, and another 1.23 extension based off of todays rally sits at 1.5018 which is conveniently a w3/C/Y projection based on the 1.287-1.386 rally. I'm thinking of selling 5018 or buying a 1.4727 touch. I know one thing, with EA & EG finally finding resistance, all 3 pairs must turn upwards fast and in a hurry, otherwise additional daily candles from AU like yesterday will cause weakness in EU eventually, if not today.

AUD. 21:30 NY AU : retail sales

Thanks Tom. We have a situation on AU/GU. I don't doubt new yearly highs from both but that might be all she wrote. We are nearing the end of something big. A couple highs from EU is more probable but AU/GU could be finished. See what I mean?

First support hit as expected,
if it breaks below ( which i expect it will) it will hit 2nd support level on my chart or S1 for today,
a clear divergence on 4HR chart,all my indies r confirming the divergence .im expecting the price to hit the upper T.L before a drop.....
if it breaks above then it will head to 1.4950 n 1.500.
By the way there is a HIDDEN DIVERGENCE on my 1Hr chart but only STOCH confirming it.....
lets see how it plays out...

HAPPY TRADING.....

Originally Posted by nopainnogain

llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

EU is strong, definitely stronger than the other two. So if I long, it will be EU at support(the bottom). If I short, it will be either AU or GU at resistance(the top or failure). EU has the potential to make several overlapping tops, as in a ED or WXY. I'm hoping for a right shoulder failure but NFP is this week, and for months now, EU is known to decline at the start of the week but rally strong into nfp?

Once again upper band

Originally Posted by AyoBro

Update...................Well.......A new high this morn but without the higher yielders(AU/GU). A fake, which is what I asked for anyway. I look at AU & GU daily twins, and witness these two are in serious trouble, with both hrly TFs showing that the 5/21s has crushed thru 50/100/200, with both 4hr TFs showing a rejection off of the 21 back to the downside. Checking EU, its strength is impressive, avoiding a daily rollover at the moment, so I suspect a chop upwards. The last FE extension based on 1.475-1.4889 rally was 1.23, and another 1.23 extension based off of todays rally sits at 1.5018 which is conveniently a w3/C/Y projection based on the 1.287-1.386 rally. I'm thinking of selling 5018 or buying a 1.4727 touch. I know one thing, with EA & EG finally finding resistance, all 3 pairs must turn upwards fast and in a hurry, otherwise additional daily candles from AU like yesterday will cause weakness in EU eventually, if not today.

Impressive ananylsis bud. Good job . Ecb today too with Trichet.....

ECB rate decision today. A hike would come as a bit of a shock. If no hike, then market will look to Trichet to provide clues as to whether hike will come next month or the month after that. Market convinced rate hike will come within next three meetings.

Euro zone data:

10:00 GMT: German factory orders for March expected +0.4% m/m, +15.4% y/y

11:45 GMT: ECB rate decision

12:30 GMT: Trichet press conference......

EUR/USD May 5 - 2011

Bulls dominate EUR/USD and as long as price trades above 1.48 they will continue to do so. Given this we assume a move to 1.4950 and 1.50 in the case of an extension.

EUR/USD 30 min chart




Regards
Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)
azambrano@fxcm.com


*Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join today.

*Members: Receive emails when new updates are made in this thread by clicking on 'Subscribe to this thread' which is at the bottom of this page.h

Lower position is nearly recover what Eska miss while with friend during drop yesterday and two positions which is taken late last night for little speculation is look good with morning coffee. This time trailing stops is make sure no money come money go like is yesterday. Maybe is time for little shopping and maybe is then time for little selling.

DynO-mite!!!!!!!!!!! What happens when ECB cries wolf(rate hike) but the wolf never appears? History shows, you can't cry wolf for two months straight and not do anything. For those that cried foul ball, will really know how the game is played this time around?

Good morning. Big day today as highlighted a week ago as potential turning point according to Gann. I guess with ECB out of the way we'll get a clear picture later. EW still showing some uncomplete structure. PA from April 28th all in three waves so far. Yesterday evening I was looking for ED in the last wave but the drop was a bit too much and now the lines of that ED don't congerge anymore. So next best guess is expanding ED although not a big fan of them. In fact I don't like them as I don't know what the last leg will do - extend above wave iii or come short ( truncated ).

For now is waiting game for me. But I'm looking at 1.4727 as confirmation for some overdue correction