Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by dhan1163

This is its picture










0-Wave of E/U dues E/U have the positive correlation with E/J. E/J is going up in this time.

Thanks for picture dhan1163. Maybe is we is mean different things. One other time you make post with picture which is say that wave structure in major up trend make at top a EW 0 wave and count will be need to be recount from wave 4. In picture which is recent wave 2 must not go beyond the start of wave 1 under any circumstance and this will be make count invalidate. Maybe is a/b/c W but green 1/2 is not valid count where is 2 pass start wave 1. If this will be allow then wave 3 has all so enter into wave 1 territory, and, passed start of wave 1.

Originally Posted by Cosco

I am afraid this uptrend needs to be confirmed by a new test of 1.4220. Not enough strength for the moment to be sure il will go on.

I hate when officials speak... However we got our confirmation if not getting lower ....

Eska is close 2 positions at 1.4269 and is have 2 short positions but this drop was no great expect be like this hihhihi

Originally Posted by Mary R

I don't believe that the US is going to sink into a recession again without QE2. I fundamentally disagree with Richard Koo that QE2 has been ineffective, the US economy is creating 250,000 jobs a month. That's not bad for an economy which was near death three years ago. Richard Koo is just one economist, there are others with say the opposite, including Alan Blinder at Princeton and Paul Krugman . But no one really knows what is going to happen six or twelve months from now, including economists. Remember that economics is a theoretical science. There are no right or wrong answers.

Koo cited the need for more US fiscal stimulus to help employment (page 7) and in that regard, his opinion is same as Blinder's:
Alan Blinder Fires First Shot Across QE3 Bow: Says We Need More Stimulus To Boost Employment | zero hedge - 05/12/2011
zero-hedge has blurred fiscal and monetary, but whatever, everyone has an agenda (mine is to make money without working or marrying for it, lol)

I’m not qualified to judge whether there would be a recession if QE ended entirely (like Koo suggested), and as you say it’s a theoretical science so we won’t know/care, because the FOMC minutes indicate the Fed will use the proceeds from maturing bonds this summer to purchase new assets without expanding its balance sheet. Essentially like a QE-lite. Obviously they want to avoid sudden shocks to the dollar and markets. I know that’s not insightful but at least it’s not wrong.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Koo cited the need for more US fiscal stimulus to help employment (page 7) and in that regard, his opinion is same as Blinder's:
Alan Blinder Fires First Shot Across QE3 Bow: Says We Need More Stimulus To Boost Employment | zero hedge - 05/12/2011
zero-hedge has blurred fiscal and monetary, but whatever, everyone has an agenda (mine is to make money without working or marrying for it, lol)

I’m not qualified to judge whether there would be a recession if QE ended entirely (like Koo suggested), and as you say it’s a theoretical science so we won’t know/care, because the FOMC minutes indicate the Fed will use the proceeds from maturing bonds this summer to purchase new assets without expanding its balance sheet. Essentially like a QE-lite. Obviously they want to avoid sudden shocks to the dollar and markets. I know that’s not insightful but at least it’s not wrong.

The Fed said it themselves: FOMC confirms that QE3 unlikely. Using the proceeds from maturing bonds would have a much more muted impact than buying $600 billion of treasuries... it is kind of of way of gradually easing the bond market and other financial markets into a normal status without causing a massive spike up in treasury yields.
I don't think any of the economists or the Federal Reserve can predict how the American economy or any other economy will do 6 months down the line. I think the dollar will be on a gradual upward trend in the second half of 2011 against most currencies. That is my take.

EURUSD still in downward channel until it breaks 1.43

Originally Posted by Eska

Thanks for picture dhan1163. Maybe is we is mean different things. One other time you make post with picture which is say that wave structure in major up trend make at top a EW 0 wave and count will be need to be recount from wave 4. In picture which is recent wave 2 must not go beyond the start of wave 1 under any circumstance and this will be make count invalidate. Maybe is a/b/c W but green 1/2 is not valid count where is 2 pass start wave 1. If this will be allow then wave 3 has all so enter into wave 1 territory, and, passed start of wave 1.

I count only a whole wave 12345abc in certain TF. I show them with different colors. After It finishes 12345, I look at lager IF If there is another wave or look at another currencies to see correlation, support, resitance, its EW,... that affect to E/U.
They teach EW in the course or tutorial. That is the idea Waves. These look like idea Gas and real Gas that are taught at high school. In practice, You should know how to remove its randomness parts.
I show you a picture which I have been counting at 1h-chart before. Now, I show it a 3h-chart

and another picture of A/U which I did on 11/04/10. Price of A/U went to 1.1 lately,.. If you count EW normally, It couldn't accept A/U picture.

Originally Posted by Mary R

The Fed said it themselves: FOMC confirms that QE3 unlikely. Using the proceeds from maturing bonds would have a much more muted impact than buying $600 billion of treasuries... it is kind of of way of gradually easing the bond market and other financial markets into a normal status without causing a massive spike up in treasury yields.
I don't think any of the economists or the Federal Reserve can predict how the American economy or any other economy will do 6 months down the line. I think the dollar will be on a gradual upward trend in the second half of 2011 against most currencies. That is my take.

agreed, as soon as i hear the words hawkish on interest rate rise i went long usdx, and shorted eur,brent crude and us light crude,,, for 50 pips on each...They tumbled from the highs after a brief spat proving that sell on news wiithout any technnicals does work but now we need to see what the technicals do with the maarket. Sure they will be up and downs in the near future as its a market full of liquidity but i would like to see the dolar index reach 76/77 and then see where she goes from there. With no QE3 this could mute the stocks for a while....there are options and reasons but my take would be euro to reach 14000, then a bounce and maybe agressive trade towards 14500/600 then 13850 to finish up near september. I may be wrong about the bounce part but i do see 13800 coming in next few months. The usdx is a tough one though as im not quite sure how it will react to the non coming of QE3... This has many times changed opinions with economists. One thing for sure is that if or when oil drops below $95 that is one hell of a sell signal down and eur to go with it. As with your opinion of the dollar, i too agree with the gradual upward trend in light of whati have just said.

Originally Posted by dhan1163

I count only a whole wave 12345abc in certain TF. I show them with different colors. After It finishes 12345, I look at lager IF If there is another wave or look at another currencies to see correlation, support, resitance, its EW,... that affect to E/U.
They teach EW in the course or tutorial. That is the idea Waves. These look like idea Gas and real Gas that are taught at high school. In practice, You should know how to remove its randomness parts.
I show you a picture which I have been counting at 1h-chart before. Now, I show it a 3h-chart

and another picture of A/U which I did on 11/04/10. Price of A/U went to 1.1 lately,.. If you count EW normally, It couldn't accept A/U picture.

I count EW normally, and this I will be remember when is I see your picture next time. Rules is few and rules is simple and with abides for these is be easy to look for correct structure from define chooses available. When is be that waves can be made discount with 0 which is really mean 'this I can not find orthodox structure to fit so will be call 0' then is we write rule book at every time we is not in know of what is correct pattern. Thanks for pictures and explain any way dhan1163

Originally Posted by cw1

agreed, as soon as i hear the words hawkish on interest rate rise i went long usdx, and shorted eur,brent crude and us light crude,,, for 50 pips on each...They tumbled from the highs after a brief spat proving that sell on news wiithout any technnicals does work but now we need to see what the technicals do with the maarket. Sure they will be up and downs in the near future as its a market full of liquidity but i would like to see the dolar index reach 76/77 and then see where she goes from there. With no QE3 this could mute the stocks for a while....there are options and reasons but my take would be euro to reach 14000, then a bounce and maybe agressive trade towards 14500/600 then 13850 to finish up near september. I may be wrong about the bounce part but i do see 13800 coming in next few months. The usdx is a tough one though as im not quite sure how it will react to the non coming of QE3... This has many times changed opinions with economists. One thing for sure is that if or when oil drops below $95 that is one hell of a sell signal down and eur to go with it. As with your opinion of the dollar, i too agree with the gradual upward trend in light of whati have just said.

It appears that the US dollar is in an upward channel...But over the last few days I think the markets have been waiting for some type of concrete statement from the EU Finance Ministers about the terms of whatever additional assistance they will give to Greece. That is probably why the euro is so choppy over the last few days. In my opinion they should stop using terms like "soft restructuring" or "debt re profiling" because it just sounds like they're trying to hide something. I think everyone knows Greece can't pay back their debts. Its just a question of how bad it really is, and how much more money it will take. So if they are pouring over the books, we should probably hear something soon

Originally Posted by Eska

I count EW normally, and this I will be remember when is I see your picture next time. Rules is few and rules is simple and with abides for these is be easy to look for correct structure from define chooses available. When is be that waves can be made discount with 0 which is really mean 'this I can not find orthodox structure to fit so will be call 0' then is we write rule book at every time we is not in know of what is correct pattern. Thanks for pictures and explain any way dhan1163

You're welcome. It's easy to recognize. Is News coming, Is it waiting a another currencies finish a part of its EW or hit a Resistance or Support that has correlation with it or it is finishing a EW at larger TF,..?

Now, You could observe E/J. It is trying to get to the range that I have showed at a previous post. When It's coming the range. It's decreasing. By the positive corelation with E/U, E/U's going down more too. E/U is diffcult to over present Resitance - 50-SMA of daily chart. Moreover, SSD(15,5,5) of weekly has been crossing down. when E/U is going low level. Look weekly-chart price'll hit 20-SMA, It could rebound at this point. Waiting it breakdown 20-SMA to reshort until SSD(15,5,5) is oversold (its target = 1.39-1.38) then play long for next few months.

Follow trend. Trend is your friend,..

I write more information about my trading at http://jumpthefrog.com/resultme.html

Originally Posted by dhan1163

You're welcome. It's easy to recognize. Is News coming, Is it waiting a another currencies finish a part of its EW or hit a Resistance or Support that has correlation with it or it is finishing a EW at larger TF,..?

Now, You could observe E/J. It is trying to get to the range that I have showed at a previous post. When It's coming the range. It's decreasing. By the positive corelation with E/U, E/U's going down more too. E/U is diffcult to over present Resitance - 50-SMA of daily chart. Moreover, SSD(15,5,5) of weekly has been crossing down. when E/U is going low level. Look weekly-chart price'll hit 20-SMA, It could rebound at this point. Waiting it breakout 20-SMA to reshort until SSD(15,5,5) is oversold then play long for next few month.

Follow trend. Trend is your friend,..

I write more information about my trading at Currency-Trading Journal

For me more easy when is rules is be follow.

mail call (((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((

Originally Posted by Eska

For me more easy when is rules is be follow.

dhan1163, Is you make me think and is Eska have little laugh. My friend he is much fussy and is we has to buy tea called PG Tea (English tea) for if he is come he always is ask if its PG and is say ' if it aint PG it aint tea' so is we buy for him special so he no moan. You is make me think about this and is my think that 'if it aint 1 2 3 a b c with no 4 into 1 and no 2 above start then it aint EWT' hihihihi

try again.