Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by Paul Chin

Just curious. Still short?

yes ..still on the short side. Will post when I close it. eur/usd showing signs of good pullback against todays highs

Originally Posted by leopardtrader

yes ..still on the short side. Will post when I close it. eur/usd showing signs of good pullback against todays highs

I closed out mine for a few pips and switch to long. Will post it when I'm done. Nice to see your post, pal!

Originally Posted by deha

Manipulation, shmanipulation... someone is always manipulating the market. I am sure Sorosh is having his fun in some market as we speak.
EUR/USD is too big of a market (biggest I think?) for China even to manipulate. They can buy here and there to try and manage a trend upward, but that's it. IMO, it shows more than China is more confident in the PIIGS debt resolution than in the stability of the US economy

Commentaries by market leaders bring about short term market movements but not always the trend. Trends in FX are mostly drived by interest rate expectation. May the reason the price movement is never a "bee line" LOL

Originally Posted by deha

Manipulation, shmanipulation... someone is always manipulating the market. I am sure Sorosh is having his fun in some market as we speak.
EUR/USD is too big of a market (biggest I think?) for China even to manipulate. They can buy here and there to try and manage a trend upward, but that's it. IMO, it shows more than China is more confident in the PIIGS debt resolution than in the stability of the US economy

I don't think there is any manipulation. The recent attempts by coordinated central banks to increase the value of the Japanese yen was only temporarily effective. People generally suspect manipulation when they are in a bad trade. China is probably concerned about both currencies, yet they continue to peg their own currency to the US dollar. if they were that worried about the US collapsing, wouldn't they find somewhere else to peg their renminbi?

Originally Posted by deha

Manipulation, shmanipulation... someone is always manipulating the market. I am sure Sorosh is having his fun in some market as we speak.
EUR/USD is too big of a market (biggest I think?) for China even to manipulate. They can buy here and there to try and manage a trend upward, but that's it. IMO, it shows more than China is more confident in the PIIGS debt resolution than in the stability of the US economy

You can't really compare the problems of the US and the EU. The EU doesn't have a constitution or a federal government yet. That's why there is all this disparity in their debt pricing. The US has a federal government but the people running it have a problem acting like adults.

EUR/USD found support on today's low.... 1.4440 S... If it gets there "1.4430/4450", I'm abandoning the ship. Yup I mean it this time. Now aiming for 1.47 R (after holiday perhaps? + new month)

I'm somewhat agree with your statement. Let's hope no more bad news coming out of EURO zone (.... LOL....LOL....LOL... )

Originally Posted by leopardtrader

.... Trends in FX are mostly drived by interest rate expectation. ...

No one is manipulating the EUR/USD... you said it yourself: "it's too big of a market...." - and yes it's the most liquid and most traded

Originally Posted by deha

Manipulation, shmanipulation... someone is always manipulating the market. I am sure Sorosh is having his fun in some market as we speak.
EUR/USD is too big of a market (biggest I think?) for China even to manipulate. They can buy here and there to try and manage a trend upward, but that's it. IMO, it shows more than China is more confident in the PIIGS debt resolution than in the stability of the US economy

Originally Posted by Mary R

I don't think there is any manipulation. The recent attempts by coordinated central banks to increase the value of the Japanese yen was only temporarily effective.

I think you mean to DECREASE the value of the yen?

China is probably concerned about both currencies, yet they continue to peg their own currency to the US dollar. if they were that worried about the US collapsing, wouldn't they find somewhere else to peg their renminbi?

They did start a swap market for CNY/RUB. You may think it is small (in terms of volume it is), but the importance it quite high.
Maybe China is preparing to dump its USD reserves for the EUR, so it can beging pegging to the EUR or let it fly?
The US is calling Chinese CNY "locking" market manipulation. China is NOT big enough - if it were to let CNY trade freely, market manipulation would cause significant uncertainty to the Chinese businesses and the Chinese people. Enough of it that China could end up in the same state as it did after Opium war with the British Empire. They don't want that - they want an actual sustainable economy. Otherwise, why does the US not let individual states have their own dollars on the market?
The USD/CNY market is also far from GBP/USD and even more from USD/JPY. Pegging it to the USD makes sense because most of the world is tied to the USD, except some Mediteranean/Nordic countries.

Hope I don't sound confronting, I do enjoy exchanging/dissecting opinions with you.

Originally Posted by Mary R

You can't really compare the problems of the US and the EU. The EU doesn't have a constitution or a federal government yet. That's why there is all this disparity in their debt pricing. The US has a federal government but the people running it have a problem acting like adults.

Oh I disagree here They do act like adults, they just have their own interest. IMO, it is the least publicly visible dictatorship But I don't want to go into my conspiracy theories

Originally Posted by deha

I think you mean to DECREASE the value of the yen?


They did start a swap market for CNY/RUB. You may think it is small (in terms of volume it is), but the importance it quite high.
Maybe China is preparing to dump its USD reserves for the EUR, so it can beging pegging to the EUR or let it fly?
The US is calling Chinese CNY "locking" market manipulation. China is NOT big enough - if it were to let CNY trade freely, market manipulation would cause significant uncertainty to the Chinese businesses and the Chinese people. Enough of it that China could end up in the same state as it did after Opium war with the British Empire. They don't want that - they want an actual sustainable economy. Otherwise, why does the US not let individual states have their own dollars on the market?

Hope I don't sound confronting, I do enjoy exchanging/dissecting opinions with you.

yes, I meant decrease the value of the yen.
The US states did have their own currencies at one point prior to the formation of the US constitution and the creation of the federal government. The main reason for the creation of the treasury and the federal government was inter and intra state commerce - so people could trade merchandise or travel between states without changing currencies. There was strong resistance to the formation of a federal system of taxation then (and some of them are still resisting)

I am short the GBPUSD now , and I am thinking the next good EUR USD short would be probably after the ECB meeting next week. I do my best trades around these meetings, and I still hold the view that Mr. Trichet (or Mr. Draghi) will lighten up on the rate hikes later in the year.
I doubt that China will just dump its dollars, they would be hurting themselves that way as the value of the dollar would decline. I think China is perfectly content to just sit on a big pile of cash, whether it is euros or dollars while they build their superpower empire. I don't think they have any intent to manipulate any markets. Like I said before, their main goal is to keep the Europeans and Americans buying their products.

Originally Posted by leopardtrader

eur/usd short 14526 stop 14545

closed +25pips

Originally Posted by leopardtrader

Yea Captester, the hardest aspect in trading is disclosure not necessarily strategy. It helps confirm if method works and (importantly) consistent. There is absolutely no way one can trade FX pairs without knowing the behaviour of the low/high yields in certain market conditions. For example if Eur/USD is going up, there is no reason why AUD/USD or GBP/USD or NZD/USD..or CAD/USD will be going down. As you can see, no technical level or EW or RSI will prevent anyone of those from tracking the US$ trend. Of course Trendlines/EW, MACD all work in the hindsights..and they maybe ineffective especially on a smaller timeframes

As you can see, no technical level or EW or RSI will prevent anyone of those from tracking the US$ trend. Of course Trendlines/EW, MACD all work in the hindsights..and they maybe ineffective especially on a smaller timeframes.

Not necessarily.. Like i can't comment on EW as i don't even know the basic but i have good friends trading based on EW and more likely than not they successfully project market movement... I use TL's and I think i can plot a story and a picture to go along with it...
In short, right or wrong, don't matter...... Each one of us use a strategy or a method or a tool trade... else we can always flip a coin.. that a 50/50 ratio......... As you mentioned above and if I understood correctly, your system is vague and that disclosure is imp.. I can agree with that, but what good is that disclosure if you are not able to show the projection...... what it is bases on..... I at times see a chart here from other traders and can immediately conclude that i was perhaps looking at the pair from the wrong direction, so it helps me out....... the basic idea of the forum and having different segments to it is to make things easier... Trading Journals for entering trades and any notes if you like, else this is more of sharing ideas / strategies and all trades.......
If you can show things with charts, would help...... else trading fundamentally does require wider stops.......

GL....

Originally Posted by stryker

As you can see, no technical level or EW or RSI will prevent anyone of those from tracking the US$ trend. Of course Trendlines/EW, MACD all work in the hindsights..and they maybe ineffective especially on a smaller timeframes.

Not necessarily.. Like i can't comment on EW as i don't even know the basic but i have good friends trading based on EW and more likely than not they successfully project market movement... I use TL's and I think i can plot a story and a picture to go along with it...
In short, right or wrong, don't matter...... Each one of us use a strategy or a method or a tool trade... else we can always flip a coin.. that a 50/50 ratio......... As you mentioned above and if I understood correctly, your system is vague and that disclosure is imp.. I can agree with that, but what good is that disclosure if you are not able to show the projection...... what it is bases on..... I at times see a chart here from other traders and can immediately conclude that i was perhaps looking at the pair from the wrong direction, so it helps me out....... the basic idea of the forum and having different segments to it is to make things easier... Trading Journals for entering trades and any notes if you like, else this is more of sharing ideas / strategies and all trades.......
If you can show things with charts, would help...... else trading fundamentally does require wider stops.......

GL....

Stryker, I am NOT saying Technicals dont work( they work!) but they are mostly inefficient in smaller timeframes. The reasoning behind my post is that in general high-yields move together against low-yields. When such moves become prominent, levels are subject to be broken.
I look at your charts..they are quite fine and above all logical. But as you derived your trend lines based on "subjective" assumptions in terms of highs/timeframe, it means there is likely times of missing consensus opinion especially in smaller timeframes.
My mentality is that if US$ is on the downtrend..all high-yields pairing with it will go up. Same is with CHF and JPY. The three dorminate their pairs with all high-yields. This means that if gbp/chf is ralling, there is 95% chance that eur,aud,nzd,cad (pairing with chf) are rallying also but on different degrees. In this case each individual study or level is not likely to influence the movement. This means studies should have to concentrate on the baskets of these individual currencies

S&P500 up, EUR/USD up strongly this week. Still Holding 1.4188 Long Position and will continue to do so as the new months pivot point shows support at 1.4422, So as long as that area is held as support i believe we will continue higher. Three charts below starting with the Zoomed out Daily shows the possibility of a wedge coming into play if we can manage to get over 1.4700 at least, Trend Daily chart shows that top trendline to be critical resistance for the bears, If we get above that i think we're headed to 1.47. lastly E/U has been riding the magic carpet with the S&P this week, That lower supporting line is strong and takes it above the trending supporting Moving Averages and over all still above the Ichi Cloud. Still holding on to the thought that it will reach 1.4000 as the final move up IMO. for the Immediate view, looking for price to come down to 1.4420-30 i will add longs with stops below. GL all.

chf/jpy long 9584 stop 9550 expecting some strenght in chf and sideways to modest upside move in the yen

Same as before, a break of the short term ascending channel(green) and then a retest of the support side but above the previous top, only to decline. What is actually happening, PA is moving sideways toward the support of MT ascending channel(red) before a break up/down. Its not un-common for an aggressive trend to test the underside of the broken ST channel(green) twice before a temporary trend change such as these 100 pip drops. If the 4hr twins attempt to turn while PA is testing the underside of the ascending channel then that presents optimum short entry, otherwise a short at the break of the MT ascending channel(red) is not a bad short either.