Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by leopardtrader

Stryker, I am NOT saying Technicals dont work( they work!) but they are mostly inefficient in smaller timeframes. The reasoning behind my post is that in general high-yields move together against low-yields. When such moves become prominent, levels are subject to be broken.
I look at your charts..they are quite fine and above all logical. But as you derived your trend lines based on "subjective" assumptions in terms of highs/timeframe, it means there is likely times of missing consensus opinion especially in smaller timeframes.
My mentality is that if US$ is on the downtrend..all high-yields pairing with it will go up. Same is with CHF and JPY. The three dorminate their pairs with all high-yields. This means that if gbp/chf is ralling, there is 95% chance that eur,aud,nzd,cad (pairing with chf) are rallying also but on different degrees. In this case each individual study or level is not likely to influence the movement. This means studies should have to concentrate on the baskets of these individual currencies

Mr. Man, I like your post alot. They remind me of our old friend Zion. His post were exactly like yours, short and sweet. He subscribed to the leopardtrader service, just as you do. He even had the same opinion about the 'laggers' MACD/RSI/Stochs. He was unable to appreciate EW too. I told him once 'just because you don't know how to use the laggers, doesn't mean they are inferior to your system'. Some others that are no longer with us, joined in saying 'KISS'. I said 'what is simple to you, is not simple to everyone else'. Example, I've been utilizing EW for a nice chunk of time, and its quite simple to me. I've caught on to the relationship between the dollar pairs or the chf pairs, and have studied their behaviors for a year now. The high-yielders vs low-yielders whether in a RISK ON(rate race) or RISK OFF(fear) environment, lesson, is priceless. I've been encouraging the lesson for a year now, to my close friends. Unfortunately, my MT4 package doesn't support individual currency baskets like 'Bloomberg' offers. But imagine, with all my knowledge, if I could apply the EW, TLs, laggers, pivots, S/R, twins(whoa) to an individual currency.......i'm joking, been there-doing it. Looks like your still missing the 'time' factor, just like the rest of us. I might have even pick up the science from Zion, NOPE, it came when my best friend ask me to back-test GJ as a result of Zion inquiring(ugly call) and eventually purchasing the twins. I pulled up GJ/AJ/EJ/UJ to study their habits and out comes a shocker, my friends states 'I never base a trade on correlations'. NOPE, it was Asher/Ichi clouds, that was focused on the single currency strength vs others, dang that was 2-4 years ago since discovering his blog(it was only a year ago that I put it all together though, lol). Long story short, if you open your mind up to proven technicals that was derived before/during/after you found this jewel, then you wouldn't have to 'show and prove' for subscribers. Instead they'd flood your 'leopardtrader service'. Like Zion, I like your style, hopefully we can work together. For Example, unless your not aware of what happens to E/U when UChf consolidates for more than 24hrs or when E/chf makes a 4hr turn 24hr ahead of UChf's 4hr turn, there is no reason why..................... damn hindsight, good thing I have EW.

Back to business. 5/21 crossed below 15m 50/100ma, while 4hr MACD has peak(initial negative decline)

6.6 pips it fell short of my entry. grrrrr, family first but gotta try take some and not get every pip. Oh well another entry will be coming soon enough. Woulda bin a nice 60 pips and some to come yet. just had to do a little wine, kids to the pool then the fib lines come out an set up fpr the next ride.

eurjpy is making a triple top

May be down what do you guys think?

4Hr:
Price Tested the Daily Upper T.L on my 4hr chart yesterday, but didnt break it,
we can see some divergence on the Histogram bars of MACD, which shows tht bulls r gettin tried....
As long as price trades above 1.4440 we remain bullish, and can expect a test of this upper T.L again,

1Hr:
P.A is creating a Possible double top, or a possible H n S pattern. If P.A test the Upper T.L again n fails to break it, it will confirm the H n S pattern.
But P.A is continuously creating H.Ls keepin the bullish trend intact.
Break above the Upper T.L will take us to 1.4550 or R1 and 1.4600 or R 2,
Be advised today is friday... Mostly one sided....

GUD LUCK ALL n HAPPY TRADING....

start thinking about shorts wave 5 is all that is left on this last upmove 4 nearly finished then drop for a bit imo

Originally Posted by leopardtrader

Stryker, I am NOT saying Technicals dont work( they work!) but they are mostly inefficient in smaller timeframes. The reasoning behind my post is that in general high-yields move together against low-yields. When such moves become prominent, levels are subject to be broken.
I look at your charts..they are quite fine and above all logical. But as you derived your trend lines based on "subjective" assumptions in terms of highs/timeframe, it means there is likely times of missing consensus opinion especially in smaller timeframes.
My mentality is that if US$ is on the downtrend..all high-yields pairing with it will go up. Same is with CHF and JPY. The three dorminate their pairs with all high-yields. This means that if gbp/chf is ralling, there is 95% chance that eur,aud,nzd,cad (pairing with chf) are rallying also but on different degrees. In this case each individual study or level is not likely to influence the movement. This means studies should have to concentrate on the baskets of these individual currencies

I think on smaller time frame hardly anything pans out well. Unless you are looking into pattern and when you can spot it on time you can make a trade, else smaller time frame in short is for smaller gains.. 3-5 pips mainly; unless it shoots up in favor allowing you to place a stop on gains and maybe let it run like a stray dog to play fetch up some more pips......... nothing wrong with that... But is trading on small time frame is a good strategy....... I'm assuming when you are hinting at smaller time frame you are intending to 1 m or 5 min or even 15 mins... I use mainly 4 hrs and now started applying 30 mins as a combo driver factor. 4 hrs for main entries, 30 mins to see if the position is on track........ Hey! it works for me........ AND yes trendlines are meant to be broken else we will not move more than few pips for ages........ When they break, and if spotting it well, u would know what to do then…. hence they always been lighting the path for the price to travel....... To me that’s a powerful tool........ And some of the best trades are to spot breakouts and I love doing that.....
Trading high yield currencies are a different ball game altogether. Mainly used to hedge...... AUD is one of the finest when it comes to high yield and true it predicts earlier expected moves on the USD... but even if you are day trading, you can't every single day be buying a high yield currency.. Plus if you are using stops u still need to buy at lvls that gives you an edge than simply jumping in.. So I'm assuming you have a system that prompts you to be buying is exactly the question here....
If you are doing correlation on pairs and if you think that eur will rally against the chf, but chf will rally against the gbp, then instead of buying eur/chf, rather buy eur/gbp, as the gbp out of the 3 is the weakest link and the euro is the strongest.....
USD has falling or euro surging for day and short term traders it hardly matters..Every new day brings a new challenge and every new position taken either will tank or make money for you…
We sold Chf/Jpy at 97.53 with better entries not kicking in around 97.73, and we made it good on it. Currently we had order shorts on it from 96.17 but I think we might fall short on it…. Chk few days when I hinted a big sell off on this pair new as the tops are getting heavier and listed tgt on the drop is shown as well.. A good friend hinted me to look into this pair.. I did and was glad I did……..
Anyways high yields / low yields, trend up or down in the end don’t matter… If you don’t have an idea why the movements are taking place, then it’s more of a gamble than trading… Not saying you don’t, but no clue how you derive a trade…
Anyways… that is all the time I have on this and now back to business….
GL…

Originally Posted by Fx(MIA)

May be down what do you guys think?

Just hit my heavy entry .....come on baby

some quick charts..

GL..

Originally Posted by captester

start thinking about shorts wave 5 is all that is left on this last upmove 4 nearly finished then drop for a bit imo

Hey up Cap,
Ive placed a short at 14440 as a preliminary.......my indies are looking maxed out and ready to turn lower so im hoping to a degree that wave 5 ends at 14550

CAD just may pull a lil retrace about from the current low..
This pair has totally shaped its channel out from bull to a possible bear in record time...

GL..

the title says it all

Spain June manufacturing PMI 47.3

July 1, 2011 at 07:15 GMT

Down from 48.2 in May and below median forecast of 48.0. Lowest read since January 2010. Oh eh.

EUR/USD July 1 - 2011

ERU/USD keeps on trading higher. Support can be found at 1.4450 and as long as price trades above 1.4450 the uptrend will remain intact and we must assume further EUR/USD gains. R2 is at 1.46 and works as cap and as price target.



EUR/USD 30 min chart



Regards
Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)
azambrano@fxcm.com


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