Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

need a 4 hrs close min above 4236 if not 4236....
20 mins to close...........
GL..

Possible AUD structured channel for a down move..
Euro 4 hrs opened at 4336 well above 4326..
this 5 min on euro needs to break higher as well..
back to been busy........... remember stops tight........... as there could be a lot of opportunities today... Seems like i thrive on volumetric and volatile mkt............... just need optimum entries to settle in....
GL..

Massive Gap up, nice for those who stuck out long over the weekend. Looking to go long around the pivot and the previous resistance trend line around 1.4250. Also a 50% fib level from its up move. The weekly triangle looks like a breakout coming soon as its getting congested in that tight space since its resistance at R1 and M3 support.

My scalpin results for the day so far...
17 successful trades out of 18 trades, banked 100+ pips ,
But day is not over yet, a great start for the week,

"Buy at Support Sell at Resistance strategy Followed with 1min n 5 min t.f "

Gud luck all n
HAPPY Trading
~ chaudhry~

Originally Posted by ivanvrz

Hi Guys,
I'd like to present you some fundamental data for U.S dollar in long term, a I would like someone of you to tell me your opinion, OK? I'm talking about U.S budget deficit which was the most quoted reason for Standard and Poor rating agency decision to downgrade United States from AAA to AA+. But are the things so bad as they looking? Let's see now:
Fiscal 2002 ( covers period from October 1, 2001 until September 30, 2002)
United States budget statement:
Income:1853.225 bln $, Outlays: 2011.017 bln $ ( budget deficit: 157.792 bln $, GDP 10701.7 bln $ in current,not real dollars) - budget deficit was 1.47% of GDP. For economy size and strength as U.S.A that was almost excellent!
Fiscal 2003: ( covers period from October 1, 2002 until September 30, 2003 )
Income: 1782.106 bln $, Outlays: 2159.247 bln $ ( budget deficit: 377.141 bln $, GDP 11255.1 bln $ in current, not real dollars ) - budget deficit was 3.35% of GDP, worsening but not alarming at all! Take into account that the war in Iraq started that year and that's probably the reason for raised outlays for 148 bln $!
Fiscal 2004: ( covers period from October 1, 2003 until September 30, 2004 )
Income:1879.783 bln $, Outlays: 2292.627 bln $ ( budget deficit: 412.844 bln $, GDP 11936.3 bln $ in current not real dollars ) - budget deficit was 3.46% GDP, worsening the gap but nothing alarming again
Fiscal 2005: ( covers period from October 1, 2004 until September 30, 2005 )
Income: 2153.350 bln $, Outlays: 2479.095 bln $ ( budget deficit: 318.745 bln $, GDP 12728.6 in current, not real dollars ) - budget deficit was 2.5% GDP, narrowing the gap!
Fiscal 2006: ( covers period from October 1, 2005 until September 30, 2006 )
Income: 2406.676 bln $, Outlays: 2654.887 bln $ ( budget deficit: 248.211 bln $, GDP 13432.8 bln $ in current, not real dollars ) - budget deficite was 1.85% GDP, what we can consider almost excellent for economy size and strength of United States!
Fiscal 2007: ( covers period from October 1,2006 until September 30, 2007 )
Income: 2567.674 bln $, Outlays: 2729.198 bln $ ( budget deficit: 161.524 bln $ GDP 14126.2 bln $) - budget deficit 1.14% GDP - excellent result for me!
Fiscal 2008: ( covers period from October 1, 2007 until September 30, 2008 )
Income: 2523.641 bln $, Outlays: 2978.440 bln $ ( budget deficit: 454.799 bln $, GDP 14395.1 bln $ in current, not real dollars ) - budget deficit was 3.16% GDP! We must take into account that fiscal 2008 is year when crisis actually began, and reach full scale in fiscal 2009
Fiscal 2009: ( covers period from October 1, 2008 until September 30, 2009 )
Income: 2104.363 bln $, Outlays: 3520.087 bln $ ( budget deficit: 1415.724 bln $, GDP 13920.5 bln $ in current, not real dollars ) - budget deficit was 10.17% GDP! Fiscal 2009 was year when full scale economic crisis hit U.S.A and decrease of income represents decrease of economic activities within United States and increase of outlays represents expenses for TARP ( bailout funds provided by law proposed by Bush's administration in September 2008 after Lehman Brother's collapsed in amount of aproximately 700 bln $ )
Fiscal 2010: ( covers period from October 1, 2009 until September 30, 2010 )
Income: 2161.745 bln $, Outlays: 3455.948 bln $ ( budget deficit: 1294.203 bln $ GDP 14605.5 bln $ ) - budget deficit was 8.86% GDP! When we carefully see outlays in fiscal 2009 and 2010 we'll notify that increases in outlays are increases for various bailouts in amount of aproximatelly 1200 bln $!
Fiscal 2011: ( covers period from October 1, 2010 until June 2011, and this week is expected datas for July 2011 to be published )
Income: 1893 bln $, Outlays: 2996 bln $
Standard and Poor rating agency downgraded United States judged by opinion that budget deficit of United States is not going to be narrowed and set up on sustainable path in near future and presented it in official statement! I would like someone's opinion about what I presented

Thank you, and good luck trading today
Ivan

problem is attitude. US have basically been taking its creditor countries for a ride and some of them (most importantly China) have finally woken up to it. They're basically out of control spending money that they don't have and until the debt ceiling issue came around they'd shown no propensity to deal with the problem. The result has been QE and inflation which is felt around the world. If they can actually balance the books (ex-interest) then there will be a slowdown in growth, more unemployment etc but at least the other countries of the world would not be sacrificing their GDP for the US's benefit, only to recieve continually depreciating treasury paper in return. I think the US can sort out their budget problems, but it will take a long time and a lot of pain (not just for the US) to do so. The chinese liberalising their currency would help a lot by replacing lost US demand.

Without the threat of further intervention I think the USD would be absolutely tanking today vs the euro (and EUR would already be higher without the intervention that has already happened) but the fact of the matter is that countries like Japan who have large visable surpluses depend on US demand to keep their companies profitable and therefore they have a fundamental interest in having a strong dollar.

n.b. S&P/Moodys/Fitch are a bunch of jokers. The US should have lost its AAA rating the second QE1 was announced. The only reasons they have any importance at all is that a lot of legacy investment contracts are governed by rules that rely on the ratings that these companies give, and when theres a downgrade investors think they can make a quick buck by joining the herd in shorting the downgraded country.

Originally Posted by Easy Trader

... yes, THE Market is the boss

Anyway, good logical explanation of that error denial: Thoughts on the downgrade

Sooo, WHY they didn't revaluate their calculations, hah ?

As I said, somebody made a big bucks out of this, just business:

S&P Seen Surrendering to Tea Party Costing U.S. Taxpayer - Businessweek

According to Alejandro, a trade below 1.4280 we can expect a move to 1.42.
since we are trading very close to 1.4280 what do you think is the expected move when US market opens?

Thanks

Originally Posted by johnpt

According to Alejandro, a trade below 1.4280 we can expect a move to 1.42.
since we are trading very close to 1.4280 what do you think is the expected move when US market opens?

Thanks

P.A is at a major support on hourly at 4255 , break below and we ll see 4210 or Todays Pivot level,

just my thought ,

Gud luck n HAPPY TRADING....
~ chaudhry ~

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

problem is attitude. US have basically been taking its creditor countries for a ride and some of them (most importantly China) have finally woken up to it. They're basically out of control spending money that they don't have and until the debt ceiling issue came around they'd shown no propensity to deal with the problem. The result has been QE and inflation which is felt around the world. If they can actually balance the books (ex-interest) then there will be a slowdown in growth, more unemployment etc but at least the other countries of the world would not be sacrificing their GDP for the US's benefit, only to recieve continually depreciating treasury paper in return. I think the US can sort out their budget problems, but it will take a long time and a lot of pain (not just for the US) to do so. The chinese liberalising their currency would help a lot by replacing lost US demand.

Without the threat of further intervention I think the USD would be absolutely tanking today vs the euro (and EUR would already be higher without the intervention that has already happened) but the fact of the matter is that countries like Japan who have large visable surpluses depend on US demand to keep their companies profitable and therefore they have a fundamental interest in having a strong dollar.

n.b. S&P/Moodys/Fitch are a bunch of jokers. The US should have lost its AAA rating the second QE1 was announced. The only reasons they have any importance at all is that a lot of legacy investment contracts are governed by rules that rely on the ratings that these companies give, and when theres a downgrade investors think they can make a quick buck by joining the herd in shorting the downgraded country.

There is no intervention today. The dollar is up because no one cares what S & P says anymore . The S & P downgrade does not effect short term money market funds, which is where people "buy" dollars when they get out of the stock market and riskier assets. These rating agencies think they are more important than they are. What the Fed does tomorrow will be far more important
S&P Affirming U.S. Short-Term Debt Ratings May Keep Money Markets in Check - Bloomberg

My first trade today. US short notes unaffected by SNP downgrade. US$ showing some power this am. But could go lower with time. Long term US$ negative.

e/s long 268 stop 230

Quote Originally Posted by johnpt View Post
According to Alejandro, a trade below 1.4280 we can expect a move to 1.42.
since we are trading very close to 1.4280 what do you think is the expected move when US market opens?

Originally Posted by chaudhry

P.A is at a major support on hourly at 4255 , break below and we ll see 4210 or Todays Pivot level,

just my thought ,

Gud luck n HAPPY TRADING....
~ chaudhry ~

I know always more optimistic....... 4188 would do for me............

Possible double top on GU,
possible neckline at 1.6400, break below n possible target can be todays pivot level at .6337...

GUD luck all
n HAPPY TRADING...
~ chaudhry~

EUR/USD May Rebound- After a steep decline from 1.4400, Euro may come up for air.

The Daily FX Economic Calendar for the Week Starting August 8-12th 2011

Here is the DailyFX Weekly Economic Calendar in detail here: http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/

Watch the Daily FX Team live coverage of these events here

Happy Trading!

What event do you think will have the most effect on the market you trade?

Do you think the "market"/traders are looking at something else?

Good morning dear fortunate ones,

What has been happening in the past few days is doing my head in. I think the PA suffers from bipolar disorder and I am going to prescribe Lithium or Citalopram to take every 4 hours to stabilize the mood, because that is the average of each PA's episode. Last night I was thinking to set TP for my long at 1.445 instead of 1.44. Well good I didn't. And look where're we now. lol

Wish you all the best,
Peter