Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

This should be going higher to break 4475 high.

Since yesterday this 30 mins has helped alot....

GL..

Originally Posted by Mary R

Reich has negative connotations because the Third Reich involved the nazi takeover of Europe. But Reich just means German rule, and if you go back and research the First and Second Reichs they were basically all failed attempts at German control. So Reich doesn't mean authoritarian takeover, but on the other hand Germany is basically calling the shots in the EU now because they have more money than anyone else.If other countries want to access the EFSF or other funds they have to abide by the rules primarily set by Germany.

Not native german, sure we will have some around here, but in my knowledge Reich is Empire, and that has historically negative connotations.

anyway, I agree with you Mary, that countries in Europe will have heavy reluctances to loose soveriegn rights. The idea that someone in Berlin or Munich could drive politics of people radically different from Andalucia (Spain) is mindblowing for them. It will take generations to approach.

Despite the procedence of each individual citizen, the USA doesn't have this radically different cultures and languages to deal with, their society is homogeneous. They can concentrate into being competitive. That's for me the big difference.

On the other hand, Germany is slave of their past decisions (like any individual or group). The Euro itself puts them in an imposible situation, sooner or later they will have to accept losses in favour of wealth. If they crash the peripherals, who the hell will buy Wolkswagen (people's car) ;-)

Originally Posted by t3t4

And yet I do trust, hmmm? Given the choice, I'd be in Denmark right now! But once you lay roots in one place, it becomes determination that moves you. Not force so much, rather will....

I'd say that is a fitting description of gold and silver. But keep in mind please; helicopter Ben Bernanke said: Gold is not money!

See for yourself here,,,, Ron Paul vs Bernanke: Is Gold Money? - July 13, 2011 - YouTube


Hmm, so then what? The Green Back is no longer backed by gold but it is however backed by the social security number. In other words, it debt upon debt! So what backs it up otherwise? Are the Chinese holding us a-float? Do we need them even though they own most of the U.S.A.?

I do so love debate, however, I don't have the numbers in my head to play this tit for tat game. But I am still waiting for an answer on the U.S. land value. What's it worth? Anyone, anyone..... (Ferris Bueller's Day Off).....

Happy Trading,
t3t4

The US has the capability of paying off its debt. A federal sales tax could probably do it in a couple of years. In 2000 we had a budget surplus. The main problem is political gridlock. I don't know when that is going to change. Sometimes things have to be really bad before people insist on change. Sometimes they just change slowly over time.
The dollar still has the liquidity factor advantage over other currencies, and in a real market panic you are going to see a flight to the US dollar.

Originally Posted by banison

In yesterday evening's Ichimoku analysis I was pointing out a strong possibility of trading lower as a result of Chikou Span bounce from the inside of the kumo boundary. We indeed traded lower.
For over 30 trading days the upper kumo resistance (Senkou Span B) was flat at the same level (1.445) and today is a first day that is different. One could say the new level of resistance is 1.437, but since today's open is above this level, it is actually a support. More so, Chikou Span opened at a lower kumo boundary (SSA 1.439) and that is telling another bounce is possible, this time to the upside. 1.445 remains resistance for Chickou Span and a close above this level is needed to confirm the breakout.

Good morning dear fortunate ones,

Do you remember last night I was calling for this move up. I was holding a long position from yesterday but I closed it prematurely for +25pips and now I'm beating my head against the wall. Newbie's neurosis. lol Trade your plan are the words of the day for me... And I better quite before I begin.
Anyway, 1.445 (upper past kumo for Chikou Span) is still an important level for the daily close. If we don't close above, another bounce is possible, to the downside.
Good luck to you all.
Peter

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

No fan of Soros but if his EU knowledge and connections are believable, then most people in peripheral Europe are not amenable to German rules and they will never become more "german-like". Thus this path will fail. In his words, they "need euro bonds" that they rejected. "Germans have been hesitant to accept responsibility for Europe, and the Chinese have been hesitant to accept responsibility for the world. But they are both being pushed into it."

'You Need This Dirty Word, Euro Bonds' - DER SPIEGEL Aug 15

I continue to believe, like before, that the EU will eventually cease to exist as-is... and events seem to keep slowly stepping in that direction.

Euro bonds would mean the formation of a federal government which has the authority to tax all of the sovereign states. They're not at that point yet in the EU. I don't know if they will cease to exist or how they will change - some countries may leave the EU but they will probably keep using the euro . The euro will still be there. In the long run I think the Europeans will realize that they need to stay united for true continental strength. But I think there will be turbulence in the coming months, and problems in their financial system which are not easily solved

4H strong resist area.. #EurUsd 4H strong resist area.. on Twitpic

Time Magazine Cover


Make what you want out of it but that's a great clue EUR isn't going down anytime soon.

Originally Posted by Mary R

Euro bonds would mean the formation of a federal government which has the authority to tax all of the sovereign states. They're not at that point yet in the EU. I don't know if they will cease to exist or how they will change - some countries may leave the EU but they will probably keep using the euro . The euro will still be there. In the long run I think the Europeans will realize that they need to stay united for true continental strength. But I think there will be turbulence in the coming months, and problems in their financial system which are not easily solved

I agree with this point. I've been trying to think this through logically:

1. The ECB buying bonds keeps refinancing costs artificially low, the authorities have committed to do whatever it takes for the euro.
2. European governments have been comitting to sizable austerity plans, forced to in most cases, whereas the US is politically retarded and has done very little (as there is no-one to answer to in the short term).
3. High ranking EU officials obviously think that the situation is under control at the moment and that sustainability is achievable (ok, it doesn't seem every market participant thinks this, but there are obviously some big players backing the euro as you can see by the hangman candle support on the monthly chart and the fact we're not at 1.20)
4. I THINK THIS IS THE KEY POINT: China and a lot of the large developing nations are concerned with exactly what is the case - the USD is the most liquid currency market, and this is a major economic advantage for the americans - these developing country governments are actively trying to change this, and they will over time as the US can't dominate their economies any more.

I think the euro will be supported until it is proven that the countries in it can't get back to sustainability, probably via a default, - and i think this proof is far away at the moment. Even if there is a default from a country like one of the PIGS, it doesn't necessarily mean a collapse of the banking system as the ECB will step in. Its likely a defulting country will be chucked out of the euro (or something along these lines) and the EUR will probably strengthen in the following years given the stronger average of the remaining parts. Italy / Spain default is a different situation but let them try and get back to sustainability first - rememebr Italy has been managing its debt for a long time and whos to say they won't be able to continue given all the political support.



n.b. if anyone has any data that they think either supports or disproves these comments i'd love to see it as i can't be bothered to source all the individual data myself

Originally Posted by JimboFX

Time Magazine Cover


Make what you want out of it but that's a great clue EUR isn't going down anytime soon.

everyones made a lot out of the riots but no-one seems to get what really happened in London. There are a lot of scumbags in England. This is just a super-hysterical collaboration of them, nothing more. You didn't see normal people going out of their jobs to demonstrate like in Greece, where it was political, just a large mob of c0cks on the rob. like the mayday riots of <2000. look it up if you don't know about these

Jimbo - you are still bearish or bullish now on eur/usd ?

Originally Posted by KUTERO

4H strong resist area.. #EurUsd 4H strong resist area.. on Twitpic

Nice view Captain.... gud to see u back ,
i see some DIV on ur chart tooo..... so break below the 4466 support then 4430 extended 4410 or todays pivot level can be seen,

Regards,
~Chaudhry~

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

I agree with this point. I've been trying to think this through logically:

1. The ECB buying bonds keeps refinancing costs artificially low, the authorities have committed to do whatever it takes for the euro.
2. European governments have been comitting to sizable austerity plans, forced to in most cases, whereas the US is politically retarded and has done very little (as there is no-one to answer to in the short term).
3. High ranking EU officials obviously think that the situation is under control at the moment and that sustainability is achievable (ok, it doesn't seem every market participant thinks this, but there are obviously some big players backing the euro as you can see by the hangman candle support on the monthly chart and the fact we're not at 1.20)
4. I THINK THIS IS THE KEY POINT: China and a lot of the large developing nations are concerned with exactly what is the case - the USD is the most liquid currency market, and this is a major economic advantage for the americans - these developing country governments are actively trying to change this, and they will over time as the US can't dominate their economies any more.

I think the euro will be supported until it is proven that the countries in it can't get back to sustainability, probably via a default, - and i think this proof is far away at the moment. Even if there is a default from a country like one of the PIGS, it doesn't necessarily mean a collapse of the banking system as the ECB will step in. Its likely a defulting country will be chucked out of the euro (or something along these lines) and the EUR will probably strengthen in the following years given the stronger average of the remaining parts. Italy / Spain default is a different situation but let them try and get back to sustainability first - rememebr Italy has been managing its debt for a long time and whos to say they won't be able to continue given all the political support.



n.b. if anyone has any data that they think either supports or disproves these comments i'd love to see it as i can't be bothered to source all the individual data myself

Emerging nations have been diversifying away from the dollar for over a decade now . that is a long slow process underway. Twenty years ago nearly 100% of the assets held by international central banks were US dollars. Now it is around 60%. That is part of the reason for the decline of the dollar over the last decade. But the US dollar will continue to have an important role in the global economy. the US is still the world's largest economy (the EU taken together is larger but that includes countries which do not use the euro) and the rest of the world depends to a large degree on the buying power of the American consumer.
I disagree that a sovereign default would be a non event. I think it could be a tsunami of epic proportions. The point is the banks in the EU are highly leveraged to sovereign debt which is larger than the ability of the ECB or any nation to bail them out in an emergency. A true default could roil the credit markets all over the world. i don't know if it is going to happen but we could see a collapse of a major bank in the EU and the inability of the financial authorities to prevent it. That is the real risk to the EU in the coming months.

Euro crosses remain the best and easiest to trade.
Made tons of pips today and always with all humility. I will keep posting trades whenever I can...or general comments.
While economic analysis is good, unfortunately daytraders ( even swing traders) dont care about these at all. They dont make sense per pocket. They are good for Warren Buffets LOL.
What works is a strategy that tracks what you trading with high risk/reward.
Euro is on the verge of breakout now...holding above this week to next calls for 17350ish in months to come.
Good luck everyone !
PS. If you wanna learn about my "ways"..PM me or send me an email wiredsign@yahoo.com

The E/U peaking out over resistance so will watch for a daily candle close above 1.4474. If we do im entering on a small pullback. A zoomed out EU chart shows a upper resistance that could be tested again from a breakout here. GL all.

Nice John "they say a picture is worth a 1000 words" so,do you have a 1000 words to share?

Originally Posted by JohnClark

Euro crosses remain the best and easiest to trade.
Made tons of pips today and always with all humility. I will keep posting trades whenever I can...or general comments.
While economic analysis is good, unfortunately daytraders ( even swing traders) dont care about these at all. They dont make sense per pocket. They are good for Warren Buffets LOL.
What works is a strategy that tracks what you trading with high risk/reward.
Euro is on the verge of breakout now...holding above this week to next calls for 17350ish in months to come.
Good luck everyone !
PS. If you wanna learn about my "ways"..PM me or send me an email wiredsign@yahoo.com