Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by cw1

Hi All,

I am in the box of NO QE tomorrow.
I firmly believe he will not do that. So the recent rallies this last week are pricing in the QE3 anticipation of yes to QE. This afternoon and Friday may be very interesting indeed ....OR it will be as dead as a dodo....
Whats your thoughts on QE3 Yes or no?

not now 100%. atleast till November. hard to say what this rally is about, seems cetral banks doing it+ funds

I vote NO. I find it highly unlikely that there'll be even a hint of QE3. Which leaves me flummoxed as to why there would be such a high level of anticipation (if that is indeed behind the rallies). If we can get out of this 4350-4500 range before then, a move might gather its own momentum, regardless of what's said. But if we're still in the 44's when Bernanke speaks, then who knows... probably more listless volatility.

Originally Posted by cw1

Hi All,

I am in the box of NO QE tomorrow.
I firmly believe he will not do that. So the recent rallies this last week are pricing in the QE3 anticipation of yes to QE. This afternoon and Friday may be very interesting indeed ....OR it will be as dead as a dodo....
Whats your thoughts on QE3 Yes or no?

I agree with you.

My question is, if there is no QE3, that means bullish for the dollar - correct?

Originally Posted by jolopino

not now 100%. atleast till November. hard to say what this rally is about, seems cetral banks doing it+ funds

Now is the time to end the hedge n double up on the trade.

EurUsd 4H #EurUsd 4H on Twitpic

Originally Posted by JakeBenjamin

I agree with you.

My question is, if there is no QE3, that means bullish for the dollar - correct?

yes it must do as if no QE3 then stocks/s&p plus dow jones index should in theory drop and sell off near to the lows
Gold would be back in buy mode
usdx would or should rally
eur/usd would or should sell off

Easy peasy lemon squeezy eh!!! thats what should happen------ But they could say something else in this jackson hole planet on fiday that could further spur the markets on regardless of news on qe3------Im backing my corner for now though
thank you all for your comments and kleep em comin---Just awaiting Marys as i think she is in the same camp as me on this.....
safe tradign

Originally Posted by cw1

Hi All,

I am in the box of NO QE tomorrow.
I firmly believe he will not do that. So the recent rallies this last week are pricing in the QE3 anticipation of yes to QE. This afternoon and Friday may be very interesting indeed ....OR it will be as dead as a dodo....
Whats your thoughts on QE3 Yes or no?

I'm a no on 'traditional' QE, i.e. more buying, but extending the duration of the Fed's balance sheet still reduces interest payments and will flatten the yield curve. I think this is what the Fed will do. I think there will be a lot of 'closely monitoring' chat, particularly on employment, lets see what the continuing/initial claims are like later today.

I don't think its purely a 'QE3 expectation' rally we've been seeing recently, The US govt's first issuance of treasuries since the debt ceiling was raised was in the first 2 weeks of August and without QE to suck dollars out of the traditional US debt buyers this has just meant more need for them to increase their diversification activity. Of course none of this is officially reported and trading is opaque so the stories on it are few. Its not a surprise to me that strong buyers (i.e. central banks) seem to have been increasingly supporting the euro recently and the USDX is pressuring the downside.

Hard to say what the effect of the speech will be on EURUSD, but on what i've read and the posts in this forum, it looks like ppl aren't expecting QE3 so i feel the swings could be muted. Lets see what happens today and overnight.

Originally Posted by Ikee

Now is the time to end the hedge n double up on the trade.

G day Australia !
Ikee- i presume youmean double up and short asthis is where i remember your targets and mine were for...............my 1 hour indies looking bearish

Originally Posted by cw1

yes it must do as if no QE3 then stocks/s&p plus dow jones index should in theory drop and sell off near to the lows
Gold would be back in buy mode
usdx would or should rally
eur/usd would or should sell off

Easy peasy lemon squeezy eh!!! thats what should happen------ But they could say something else in this jackson hole planet on fiday that could further spur the markets on regardless of news on qe3------Im backing my corner for now though
thank you all for your comments and kleep em comin---Just awaiting Marys as i think she is in the same camp as me on this.....
safe tradign

Don't think gold will rally if theres no QE3, more likely sell off? agree EURUSD negative in the short term, and stocks will probably be down, but the fact remains that the foreign sellers remain on USD and will do until the governemtn stops needing financing from overseas - the lack of QE does not change this.

[QUOTE=cw1;892400]G day Australia !
Ikee- i presume youmean double up and short asthis is where i remember your targets and mine were for...............my 1 hour indies looking bearish [/QUOTE

G'day mate yes go short. The way it is dropping so fast we could be in for more than I thought before Jacksons fundamental orifice.

Originally Posted by Mary R

You obviously don't believe what I say but there are others who are concerned about the situation in the EU, some call it a crisis - maybe its not a true crisis but it is becoming obvious that the debt in some of the EU countries will not be paid back, ever. How they deal with it will set the stage for the future of the EU
Europe’s Headed For A Crisis, Says FT’s Gillian Tett | Daily Ticker - Yahoo! Finance

Its not that i don't believe you Mary, I agree with you that the debt situation for a number of the European countries is possibly unmanageable. However, from a currency point of view, i'm taking the stance of wait until it happens then re-evaluate. In my past experience fighting against market regulators has not been a profitable position to be in.

I'm doing relative evaluation - i.e. the US is in a bad position as well, its just in a better debt funding situation. I think we need to wait and see what growth is like over the next few years before we can say the govt debt problem is insolvent. To use an analogy:

I think calling the eurozone debt problem insolvent at the moment is like a spectator going to a fight waiting until the heavyweight champ is knocked out by his opponent, and then the spectator running in the ring and shouting 'I could have him'. At the champ's strongest he can beat the spectator up, but when hes knocked out, like the eurozone economy is currently, he can't. You have to wait and see if he can get up first. Remember, countries like Spain have ~20% unemployment at the moment: get that back to 5% and see where we are then (pls dont ask me how this is done but the law of mean reversion says it will happen eventually).

In terms of dollar demand from falling markets, i think the key difference between now and 2008 is that the emerging market economies offer greater earnings at lower multiples than they did back then. Therefore its now increasingly considered more defensive to have exposure to growth in emerging markets than exposure to the US which is in a consumer squeeze. The liquidity factor still remains but 'decoupling' is in a more advanced stage than it was 3 years ago and a lot of wealth has moved out of the US in the last few years, just check the billionaires list.

n.b. i value your posts, please do comment on what i write as much as possible.

lower highs forming still........
its bursting to drop.....

greek 2 yr bond spread at record high=down move

46.38%, up a cheeky 227 bps on the day.

5 year credit default swaps rise to 2,300 bps, up 162 bps on day

Another day, another debacle.

Euro doesn’t seem to really give a stuff. Shrugs it’s shoulders and extends rally to 1.4448.

Looks like a triangle to me on EU 1hr..
break above the upper t.l n possible target can be 1.4530 or R2 level of today
Or break below the lower t.l n possible target can be 1.4363 or todayz S1 level....

Mean time Scalp in the upper n lower t.l range....

Gud Luck All
n Happy Trading...
~ chaudhry ~

Waves are going for channels, right ?

To negate this harmonic pattern from chart we have time until we will under 4050. Sometimes target of this is end of smaller wave and sometimes it's reversal point.

But what if we are still in the middle of correct ?

This is scenario for short term bulls, short/middle term bears and after for t3t4

caps, jimbo - what do you think about it ?

30 mins time just in case some are not aware
trade carefull