Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

it looks like the no QE3 disappointment may be starting a day early

EUR/USD London session review and outlook, August 25 - 2011





Regards

Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)
azambrano@fxcm.com

Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join.

many of the technical indicators gave the hint that EUR/USD would be bearish (news at 11:00am) MST, but since it has gone bullish. What is the latest indicator of traders ratio between bear/bull on this currency pair.

Seems to me that the idea of QE3 dissapointment is already priced in.
Friday is gonna be tough thats for sure

Originally Posted by Spirit of J.L.

Seems to me that the idea of QE3 dissapointment is already priced in.
Friday is gonna be tough thats for sure

Please can you throw more light on this. I had expected the EUR/USD to continue on the bearish path following the equity market but it didn't.

looks like it's dropping - so, is this an early indication that QE3 will not happen - based on what's printed in dailyfinance.com - more printed money devalues the US dollar

Originally Posted by Spirit of J.L.

Seems to me that the idea of QE3 dissapointment is already priced in.
Friday is gonna be tough thats for sure

Best of luck tonight with the threat of hurricane irena
Be safe to you all

Originally Posted by Spirit of J.L.

Seems to me that the idea of QE3 dissapointment is already priced in.
Friday is gonna be tough thats for sure

It should be simple.. Simply mark the extreme point u think it can go to the north and similarly to the south side....... Most oftenly these points are where the spike goes and about 90+% exactly to those xtreme lvls.. The initials move are once again about 90% fake esp if they almost touch those lvls...... then u know what the actual move kicks in........
So spot those north and south spike zone...... if they end up been held up ........ use them as supp / resis and take positions........ It should be simple n fun......... yes, getting in b.w prior to the news, make sure u have a doctor specialized in cardio rt beside you....
I would most likely point the xtreme lvls out prior to the event........ the best thing is the stops would be relatively smalls and the reward, well............... sky could be the limit.................. Esp if from here onwards we have a definite direction kicking in........

GL.....

Originally Posted by stryker

It should be simple.. Simply mark the extreme point u think it can go to the north and similarly to the south side....... Most oftenly these points are where the spike goes and about 90+% exactly to those xtreme lvls.. The initials move are once again about 90% fake esp if they almost touch those lvls...... then u know what the actual move kicks in........
So spot those north and south spike zone...... if they end up been held up ........ use them as supp / resis and take positions........ It should be simple n fun......... yes, getting in b.w prior to the news, make sure u have a doctor specialized in cardio rt beside you....
I would most likely point the xtreme lvls out prior to the event........ the best thing is the stops would be relatively smalls and the reward, well............... sky could be the limit.................. Esp if from here onwards we have a definite direction kicking in........

GL.....

Stryker, can you please, explain a bit further for me the following:

......then u know what the actual move kicks in......

So, let's say we have the initial madness behind us which marks the support and resistance areas as you mentioned and the PA is somewhere in the middle. How do you take the position? Do you take the position based on the prior analysis, i.e. before the news?

Thank you. P.

Originally Posted by banison

Stryker, can you please, explain a bit further for me the following:


So, let's say we have the initial madness behind us which marks the support and resistance areas as you mentioned and the PA is somewhere in the middle. How do you take the position? Do you take the position based on the prior analysis, i.e. before the news?

Thank you. P.

not prior to the news.. i usually mark those xtreme points and have order to sell from resis and to buy off from supp. rt around the lvls i think are the xtremes where the spike may hit.. stops are 12-18 pips..... if im rt on spotting and have entered the trade the rest becomes easy from there onwards, and once confirm i got it rt , i may add as wel go to the positions...... most oftenly even if i get it wrong, i get intial 15-25 pips move to atleast take a lil bt of profit and amend stops or reduce risk....... on a very rare occasion to i get it completely wrong and i dont get the chance to save myself at all...... in that case i have given 12-18 pips...... R/R is too good to pass an oppurtunity as far as im concern............
and no i dont take positions at all in b.w those marks........ the art is to spot the intiial fake spike if it is indeed.......
i think i illustrated this b4 as well.. not sure the TIC data or NFP that i posted and it worked exactly as expected...........
anyways i hope i be able to mark them down......... i will post them lvls prior to the speech.........

GL..

Originally Posted by stryker

If there was a way to hold the US crisis on one hand and the euro fiasco on other and to see which one goes where on their chaos weight would be easy to trade........ nicer and easier that is to be........... but heck i gotta stop dreaming............ waiting a possible initial false spike to either 4320 or down under to 4176.........
Let the Game Begin...............
oh yes.................. stops check................ emotions check................fuel & gasoline check.......... turkey sandwich check.......
$#%$#%$%%#$% check............. seat belts check...................
NOW WAITING FOR LIFTOFF................

GL...

Stryker,
This is your post from August 9th. I remember it clearly because I was amazed with your perfect entry. Below is the 5min chart.
I apologise, but I still don't follow exactly. My question is, you anticipated the spike. But you only get one chance to enter the trade, which is prior to the spike. The spike is a result of the news. So when do you actually place your order? It must be within the seconds of the release.

And if I'm the only one who don't get it, please slap me with a cold fish -lol

Still within a rising channel. PA tested the channel support.

Originally Posted by Ikee

Woke up to find trade sitting on +54 pips. Will hold this trade & move stop to 50 pips above entry point. (1,4450). Failure will result in 50 pip loss, but success will be over 200 pips. Jacksons hole obviously ?? has the answer. Personally I believe the market will do what it was gunna do anyway. Jacksons hole as with most political announcements are just excuses for spikes on the day. I'm sticking with my call.

Wish I could stay up n parley with lot while the pips add up, but Wakin' up to pips in the bucket will have to do. Lucky I did'nt tighten my stop. Nasty 50 pip spike at 11pm.

Originally Posted by solyd

Please can you throw more light on this. I had expected the EUR/USD to continue on the bearish path following the equity market but it didn't.

Oh sure.
From the fundamental point of view US will publish the 2-nd estimate of GDP and the chances that it's gonna surprise markets to the upside are very small. And also Bernanke will speak at Jackson-Hole. Some traders believe that whatever he is going to say it's gonna dissappoint markets .
As for the technical view - please see the attached pic (sorry for that Photoshop madskillz). I see the triangle here so there are some chances that EURUSD will shoot to a region of 1.4880/90 or so.

Originally Posted by Fx(MIA)

I will turn bullish at 1.4325-1.14317 area (large amount of speculation Here) lost 82 pips on a quick move up re-enter got 92 pips on the downside,,,,,jump ship to early and left another 80pips on the board. Man that hurts.....stick to your drills as AYO says.

on FIRE>>>>>ON FIRE!!!!!!!