Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by DrHouse

Hi, CW1
Ok, huge parabolic of EUR/CHF was explained by authoritorian decision of SNB. BTW, it's interesting to note that it began to climb steeply an hour or so before the official announcement...
But what, for God's sake, triggered at exactly the same time huge, almost a day long EUR/USD spike on otherwise smooth, two day descending curve, which, besides that, after some volatility, returned to exact extrapolated price on Friday? I was short at the time .
Thanx.
C

a market reaction to the intervention. Can and will effect similar pairs related to the eur currency... sorry to hear your bad trade but hey next week will be better. Always always watch for news events while trading these pairs and prep for it. Those that say do not listen to the news or watch for news events such as this is bad advice. Ahealty mix of support /resistance, feel, sense, and ears on news will always help in events of this nature in such historic difficult trading times

13597 is price at 20:50 hrs uk time..........looks like all markets are gonna gap again

Originally Posted by cw1

13597 is price at 20:50 hrs uk time..........looks like all markets are gonna gap again

I have a pattern and if so by and at 9AM EST today if the price is above 3595 it is most probably be a buyout.. It's based on something i have been trying to figure out on pattern trading similarly to suggesting that 3730-35 to be done by 9 AM EST on Friday..
Anyways looking for 3565 or extended to 3530-35 to halt for a retra..
Calculating if we do end up getting a good retrace then the price should head back to 4195-4230 (depending if it is in a matter of day or weeks. longer it takes higher becomes the retrace tgt.
Anyways u starting 3597 is music to my ears rt now..

GL..

Originally Posted by stryker

I have a pattern and if so by and at 9AM EST today if the price is above 3595 it is most probably be a buyout.. It's based on something i have been trying to figure out on pattern trading similarly to suggesting that 3730-35 to be done by 9 AM EST on Friday..
Anyways looking for 3565 or extended to 3530-35 to halt for a retra..
Calculating if we do end up getting a good retrace then the price should head back to 4195-4230 (depending if it is in a matter of day or weeks. longer it takes higher becomes the retrace tgt.
Anyways u starting 3597 is music to my ears rt now..

GL..

hehehe--thought it would be I am gonna wait it out until a retrace begins near the 3530 areas for a MT trade...nice work stryke--that area u mentioned i think is the weekly S3 maxed out .....so yep i shall take a trade near there

I have opted to close my Friday trade setup here in order to keep the site tally points going, and also because there may be a five wave decline completed (anywhere between 1.35 and 1.36).

Good luck and hats off to all who keep the short positions going from these levels.

sil
Welcome to TraderMood.com

Originally Posted by siltdm

Hello,

Some lull in the price action, and my two cents.

I have taken a short position at the top of this initial rebound above 1.37 and will carry it into the weekend.

My reasoning is that regardless of a mega greek bailout, on top of the previous ones, the ECB's stance appears to be shifting towards inflationary, printing measures (especially with Stark leaving).

So, with 200 pips stop loss and half-leverage, I am looking forward to an explosive weekend, and keep my fingers crossed that this is an Elliott Wave 3 down, and not a C.

Attachment 96769

Cheers and "good luck to all that sail on the buses going the wrong way"

The EUR/USD has gapped down about 100 pips and is currently in the low 1.35's. I think there will be a bounce from here and price will rise to 1.3838 where the previous support was, and from there, price will continue in its downwards trend.

What do you think of that analysis, do you think it's sound?

Originally Posted by siltdm

I have opted to close my Friday trade setup here in order to keep the site tally points going, and also because there may be a five wave decline completed (anywhere between 1.35 and 1.36).

Good luck and hats off to all who keep the short positions going from these levels.

sil
Welcome to TraderMood.com

You look at the stochastics, on most figures, on the daily chart it is oversold, which historically has seen at least some kind of correction.

The gap at the open today has both taken us too close to my support levels from yesterday's post to trade, and also carried us below the falling channel line as I see it. I'll be watching the level of Friday's support for the potential to short again. In the meantime my weekend analysis of GBPUSD was bullish and the same price action is unfolding there now as here in EURUSD, where I'm multi-day bearish, so who knows? I confidently predict that the market will go up, or down!

So we may have all come to an agreement that the drop is probably done and a corrective bounce is due as the daily RSI and especially intraday prices are in extreme over sold conditions. If this is indeed true and a correction to occur, I am looking for prices to bounce as high as towards the 14000 where confluence of resistance appear to be in sync with the blue line at 14000. I am looking for confirmation to go long, seeing if the low holds, and keeping my stop tight below today's current low with trailing stop in place.

I entered long at 1.3580. Wish me luck and anyone else that went long.

I'm gonna keep it simple. The trend is down and we should keep shorting. The indicators are in oversold territories, but we can be oversold for a long time. So as long as the PA is below 1.3625 and perhaps not higher than 1.37, I want to be short to reach the S2 level.
P.

Euro-Zone Scenarios: German Finance Minister Prepares for Possible Greek Bankruptcy - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

Mark very well done....if you do not mind I would like to make suggestion.....1) optimize your small periods. As For your green line Think along the lines or should I say the percentage of change in the fib time Zones. Again good Job!!!

The left is similar to you green line the right is the gann and indicator interaction at crossing check date at the bottom of chart.

Originally Posted by mark27q1

I'm researching a new and highly unlikely-sounding method of finding support and resistance levels as well as predicting time frames for reversals using a trading method that combines Gann analysis with principles from quantum physics and relativity theory. I combine it with a moving average-like indicator that comes from the research of John Ehlers, called a "Super Smoother", which aggressively follows trending moves and quickly flatlines when the market goes sideways. I am researching using it to tell when the market is overextended.

I made my first real trade using the new method on Friday, shorting EURUSD as the previous day's low was breached. My entry was for 1.38705. I made this trade because my analysis showed there weren't any significant support levels until 1.36721.

During the day (I'm in Japan) the entry was hit and I was filled at 1.38674. After a bit of fannying around to tease me, the market got serious about making some money for me.

Although I had set my target at 1.36721 and late Friday night JST I noticed on the hourly chart that a little bit of a bounce was happening. I had a stop at breakeven but didn't want to see all the profit given back and, since it was Friday and by the time I woke up again the market would be closed, I decided to close the position early at market, which was 1.37167. So closed the position for 150 pips profit, which I am very happy with -- not bad for a first, rather sceptical trade using a new method.

Needless to say, should have left well alone -- my original target was hit not two hours later and I could have had 195 pips.

For Monday, well my expected support level has been breached and the market closed below it, albeit just below. Next support level is a range the upper edge of which is 1.35362 and if that's breached, 1.34950. So I could short again on a breach of the Friday's low, targetting that, but in the meantime price has gotten a goodly way away from the Super Smoother indicator. I've noticed the differential between closing price and the super smoother is normally distributed -- and the current gap is away out in the tail of the distribution. That means the gap is statistically unlikely to remain as wide as it is, and that means Monday is unlikely to produce another good leg down. Doesn't mean it will reverse, but not likely to accelerate downwards. So I am on the sidelines for now. Maybe I will regret it, but I'd regret a losing trade that gave back all of Friday's profit more

Originally Posted by Khmerican

I entered long at 1.3580. Wish me luck and anyone else that went long.

yep i have longs off 3530 and i cashed all out on the shorts around here as well. Cashed GU around 5825 and longs as well on it from 5820 and cashed AUD at 10341 though this i shoudl have held as i think AUD will lead the decline..
EUro if not heading up above 3595 at 9AM EST, then i think it can possibly be heading to 3410 where a stronger supp lies..
GU as i write breaking under 5811 i was spotting and would like it to hold 5794 area else its declining to 5762..
AUD no good supp till aorund 99.66-80...
Did get to cash some euro for 33 pips on the longs rest will see, but looks like one more leg down possibly..
3603-08 is resis on euro.. on 30 mins..

GL..

Originally Posted by stryker

yep i have longs off 3530 and i cashed all out on the shorts around here as well. Cashed GU around 5825 and longs as well on it from 5820 and cashed AUD at 10341 though this i shoudl have held as i think AUD will lead the decline..
EUro if not heading up above 3595 at 9AM EST, then i think it can possibly be heading to 3410 where a stronger supp lies..
GU as i write breaking under 5811 i was spotting and would like it to hold 5794 area else its declining to 5762..
AUD no good supp till aorund 99.66-80...
Did get to cash some euro for 33 pips on the longs rest will see, but looks like one more leg down possibly..
3603-08 is resis on euro.. on 30 mins..

GL..

Stryker, you are the best. How many years experience do you have?