Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

It's been a long time since I posted a chart but thought you all might enjoy a different perspective and a look at how I use technical analysis to pinpoint possible set ups. Taking the EUR/USD as my example as per forum title, this is a 240 hour chart and although I use a 3 minute chart in my daily trading, the principles remain the same on any time frame.

I use two charts simultaneously, each with differing indicators. As in the attached chart, I'm clearly an exponent of RSI with Bolli bands and an overlay of MACD . . . this is my holy grail when looking for set ups. Naturally, I also consider the trend by virtue of higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend and vice versa in downtrends.

When looking at the attached chart, you will note that we have recovered some .382 on FIB levels from the 29/08 high and this also coincides with the previous significant low of 08/09 . . . a fairly obvious point of resistance.

Coupled with the subchart, you will note that RSI (red) peaked above the top BB (black) and has reversed down in conjunction, whilst top BB continues to widen and MACD remains positive albeit weakening. The trick here is to watch for a price increase (this timeframe only) above the prior high to the next obvious resistance level at about 1.4 - 30 pips or so, whilst the RSI prints lower than it's prior high and within the top BB. If this happens, then as sure as eggs are eggs, price will reverse soon afterwards. There are usually 2 or 3 attempts to extend beyond the top BB again with price action, so patience is needed to be able to read the signs in conjunction with other indicators such as a regular RSI and Stochastics, which I follow on a separate screen window.

The coloured lines on the price chart are 2 sets of Bollinger Bands set at 1 and 2 standard deviation. Strong trends will stay between the Green and Orange lines with the occasional dip to base line Purple. In this instance I am looking for a bounce off Purple followed by a higher price in conjunction with a lower RSI reading within the top BB.

These are the set ups I look for . . . I am not trying to predict what will happen and I have no idea whether it will happen in this particular instance. If it doesn't happen, then I will wait for the next possible set up to come along. Trading several FX pairs and indices on 3 minute charts, the opportunities are numerous on a daily basis.

A different slant on things by TIKTOK . . . love it or hate it, we are all different and must embrace our diversity.

Please forgive the fact that I have been writting whilst things have been happening, so my writing and any suggested price points are pertinent to this chart, it's timeframe and its frozen moment.

It is an example only to add a further twist to this forum and to show my methods . . . it is not intended to be any suggestion of what will actually happen, it's just an example of what I look for in a set up. :-)

Originally Posted by tiktok

It's been a long time since I posted a chart but thought you all might enjoy a different perspective and a look at how I use technical analysis to pinpoint possible set ups. Taking the EUR/USD as my example as per forum title, this is a 240 hour chart and although I use a 3 minute chart in my daily trading, the principles remain the same on any time frame.

I use two charts simultaneously, each with differing indicators. As in the attached chart, I'm clearly an exponent of RSI with Bolli bands and an overlay of MACD . . . this is my holy grail when looking for set ups. Naturally, I also consider the trend by virtue of higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend and vice versa in downtrends.

When looking at the attached chart, you will note that we have recovered some .382 on FIB levels from the 29/08 high and this also coincides with the previous significant low of 08/09 . . . a fairly obvious point of resistance.

Coupled with the subchart, you will note that RSI (red) peaked above the top BB (black) and has reversed down in conjunction, whilst top BB continues to widen and MACD remains positive albeit weakening. The trick here is to watch for a price increase (this timeframe only) above the prior high to the next obvious resistance level at about 1.4 - 30 pips or so, whilst the RSI prints lower than it's prior high and within the top BB. If this happens, then as sure as eggs are eggs, price will reverse soon afterwards. There are usually 2 or 3 attempts to extend beyond the top BB again with price action, so patience is needed to be able to read the signs in conjunction with other indicators such as a regular RSI and Stochastics, which I follow on a separate screen window.

The coloured lines on the price chart are 2 sets of Bollinger Bands set at 1 and 2 standard deviation. Strong trends will stay between the Green and Orange lines with the occasional dip to base line Purple. In this instance I am looking for a bounce off Purple followed by a higher price in conjunction with a lower RSI reading within the top BB.

These are the set ups I look for . . . I am not trying to predict what will happen and I have no idea whether it will happen in this particular instance. If it doesn't happen, then I will wait for the next possible set up to come along. Trading several FX pairs and indices on 3 minute charts, the opportunities are numerous on a daily basis.

A different slant on things by TIKTOK . . . love it or hate it, we are all different and must embrace our diversity.

Please forgive the fact that I have been writting whilst things have been happening, so my writing and any suggested price points are pertinent to this chart, it's timeframe and its frozen moment.

It is an example only to add a further twist to this forum and to show my methods . . . it is not intended to be any suggestion of what will actually happen, it's just an example of what I look for in a set up. :-)

nice one. post more charts pls

keep an eye on AUD/CHF
its at or gone past r2 levels and between here and r3 is good area to short it for scalps
18% of the market buy above r2 leaving the rest to take profits. when they take profits it creates a sell sequence as longs are closed
leaving an opportunity to clean up on some safe pips

the figures are good
this means stocks will rally and eu too
dollar index to fall
be carefull shorting the eur

it may be brief but in my experience DX dollar will drop

Originally Posted by cw1

keep an eye on AUD/CHF
its at or gone past r2 levels and between here and r3 is good area to short it for scalps
18% of the market buy above r2 leaving the rest to take profits. when they take profits it creates a sell sequence as longs are closed
leaving an opportunity to clean up on some safe pips

2 x posis shorted from the spike 10 pips each came in on the above. Good drills if your in it remember its friday

Originally Posted by cw1

the figures are good
this means stocks will rally and eu too
dollar index to fall
be carefull shorting the eur

yep, we're in a triangle now, not an impulse down

it looks like the fib retracement we hit yesterday is an important resistance level. Im inclined to short this risk rally but Friday afternoon's are notoriously illiquid and choppy

Originally Posted by Mary R

it looks like the fib retracement we hit yesterday is an important resistance level. Im inclined to short this risk rally but Friday afternoon's are notoriously illiquid and choppy

i would short tops Mary but your same as me when fridays are like this - open posis nless well in credit can be a headache

Mystic . . . just a random snaphot example to show a successful RSI/BB set up as described earlier. In this instance, it bounced 4 times before moving up !!. This is where it's important to consider other indicators in conjunction with the set up for better timing of entry.

In this example, you could have opened and closed at will on the dips . . . higher highs and higher lows on RSI and MACD and price are all confirming the move.

It's also just one of three primary set ups using RSI with BB but the art is let the set up unfold and never to prejudge an outcome by jumping in before it's confirmed . . . it may not confirm and that's the difference between trading the what "is" and the what "might be".

Please take into account that on the shorter time frames, the price movements can be relatively small at times . . . a few pips to 50 pips but trading is all about accumulation of pips, and every day differs.

Originally Posted by Mary R

it looks like the fib retracement we hit yesterday is an important resistance level. Im inclined to short this risk rally but Friday afternoon's are notoriously illiquid and choppy

youcould be on to something here as my indies on the 1 hr are looking verrrry bearish indeed may see a double triple top on 13840 following bounce fromm 13780 areas..... mmmmm this is odd considering mich figures...hope your in it and winning

Greek public sector workers call 24 anti-austerity strike for October 6…

"The German parliament expects to postpone its vote on a permanent rescue fund for stricken eurozone members to early next year due to continued debate in Brussels, officials said on Friday."

More obstacles for any type of resolution. This could be very bearish for Euro as the largest economic power in the EU can't decide to participate in the rescue effort.

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

yep, we're in a triangle now, not an impulse down

it seems that we are in C of ABC from 3936 now - A=C in 3661 where is nice fibo of wave from 3494

Originally Posted by tiktok

Mystic . . . just a random snaphot example to show a successful RSI/BB set up as described earlier. In this instance, it bounced 4 times before moving up !!. This is where it's important to consider other indicators in conjunction with the set up for better timing of entry.

In this example, you could have opened and closed at will on the dips . . . higher highs and higher lows on RSI and MACD and price are all confirming the move.

It's also just one of three primary set ups using RSI with BB but the art is let the set up unfold and never to prejudge an outcome by jumping in before it's confirmed . . . it may not confirm and that's the difference between trading the what "is" and the what "might be".

Please take into account that on the shorter time frames, the price movements can be relatively small at times . . . a few pips to 50 pips but trading is all about accumulation of pips, and every day differs.

sure, i'm not much for MACD / stochastics / Ichimoku so anything posted on here is in conjunction with the stuff i do. Wd like to learn more though, need to go on a longhaul flight and read about it.

You've really got to give this guy some credit. Losing a few dollars here and there is one thing but losing $2 billion really takes talent
London police say UBS trader charged with fraud - Yahoo! Finance

Originally Posted by cw1

keep an eye on AUD/CHF
its at or gone past r2 levels and between here and r3 is good area to short it for scalps
18% of the market buy above r2 leaving the rest to take profits. when they take profits it creates a sell sequence as longs are closed
leaving an opportunity to clean up on some safe pips

9080 should be good for another 10 pips