Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by szaman1977

it seems that we are in C of ABC from 3936 now - A=C in 3661 where is nice fibo of wave from 3494

do you have the chart? I was thinking maybe a leading triangle down. ST target ~13745. Want more clarity at this point though at this juncture

Originally Posted by Mary R

You've really got to give this guy some credit. Losing a few dollars here and there is one thing but losing $2 billion really takes talent
London police say UBS trader charged with fraud - Yahoo! Finance

long CHF into the peg, w/o stops. How is this guy paid to do delta one? lol

Another "after dinner speaker" in the making . . . once out of prison of course ;-)

Originally Posted by Mary R

You've really got to give this guy some credit. Losing a few dollars here and there is one thing but losing $2 billion really takes talent
London police say UBS trader charged with fraud - Yahoo! Finance

Heading south. Break below 1.375 needed.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

"The German parliament expects to postpone its vote on a permanent rescue fund for stricken eurozone members to early next year due to continued debate in Brussels, officials said on Friday."

More obstacles for any type of resolution. This could be very bearish for Euro as the largest economic power in the EU can't decide to participate in the rescue effort.

aha- i missed this post- Mary was right to short the eur. good drills

According to Reuters, Greece was expecting 90% private sector owners of Greek debt to participate in their debt offering but only got 75%. The plot thickens as these headlines are released after the European market close.

Leading diagonal also poss:

Attachment 97514

guess the weekend news will decide

Originally Posted by jogold18

support 1.36 area with trend line! monthly S4 is at 1.35.

Look how oversold those stochastics look on your chart there... that's the stuff dreams are made of! It's a good buy opportunity.

Mystic - look on my "a" wave (first from the top)

I'm counting this as 3 waves

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

Leading diagonal also poss:

Attachment 97514

guess the weekend news will decide

That's a very liney chart you have: do you know how to read it? That looks like some Gann planetary chart. I like it though (I'm not bashing on you!). What's your analysis for the next week?

Merkel is now grasping at straws, relying upon Germany for Euro growth and stability; nonsense really. Eurozone will get crippled in the run up to Christmas; you watch and see (I'm speculating!!).

Take a look at the 4 hourly chart below, these are the trend lines which you need to be looking at.

Originally Posted by szaman1977

Mystic - look on my "a" wave (first from the top)

I'm counting this as 3 waves

sure, i think definition is hard though when pa is moving that quick. could be ABC or 12345
am i missing something?

Originally Posted by YES

That's a very liney chart you have: do you know how to read it? That looks like some Gann planetary chart. I like it though (I'm not bashing on you!). What's your analysis for the next week?

Merkel is now grasping at straws, relying upon Germany for Euro growth and stability; nonsense really. Eurozone will get crippled in the run up to Christmas; you watch and see (I'm speculating!!).
Take a look at the 4 hourly chart below, these are the trend lines which you need to be looking at.

I simplified this one for posting actually, normally have all the fib levels on it as well which can become a mess.
Try to have at least 6 different time periods on at a time but really focus on 1hr and 1m.
I look at everything in an EW way (on the 1m chart a lot as well, which if you can keep up, not that i always can, can be very profitable), and if something happens that i don't expect then i just step away until i can explain it - with more experience it gets easier to tell the subtleties and make less mistakes, you only have to miss 1 move to realise youre wrong on the larger scale.
Not an expert in trendlines by a long stretch but by reading strykers posts, and through experience, i'm improving. I find if i'm wrong on the EW by looking at the trendlines i can come up with another explanation more easily.
Agree if i'm trading on a longer basis then you can use the 4hr, but i'm not always. get all the lines in my post on a 1m chart and you can see what i mean, looking for to-the-pip entries for large moves, all the green stuff is from higher time frames, not the 1m chart:
Attachment 97523
Next week is the Fed announcements which will likely strengthen the USD. The USD liquidity arrangement is very pro-risk for Europe, but the rate differential is still closing between the US and EU imo (and i know that Mary agrees with this) and this is what will drive USD strength next week. Having said this, looking LT - the Eurozone has done a lot of austerity already and i don't think this is given enough credit, the US hasn't done any. Also, the recovery that the US is seeing now may flow through to the EU in the coming months, meaning the easing may not come as quickly as it looks now. Draghi may have different point of view to Trichet though. There are large catalysts out there for EUR and i'm not forgetting that, but next week is still all about the Fed and the fact that they haven't leant directly to Euro banks to me says that they are averse to more QE and raising the money supply.

EUR/USD London session review and outlook, September 16 - 2011





Regards

Alejandro Zambrano
Currency Strategist | DailyFX Forum (London)
azambrano@fxcm.com

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have a gooden from the Uk to Usa and around the world---I leave you all with this

Now I know why Geithner went to Europe


It’s the same reason Obama sent a “jobs” bill with a bunch of pet projects to Congress which he knew had no chance of passage, so he can blame them in the campaign.

Geithner went to Europe so when the European poop hits the fan, Obama can say “I told them how to avoid it, but they wouldn’t listen…”

It really makes you wonder why they hold these summits every three weeks. They get the market all revved up and deliver exactly nothing. In fact, all they did this time around was delay a decision on Greece until October. Budget rules were supposedly toughened but there is still plenty of wiggle room.

End result: Euro well off the highs of the week and the stock rally is starting to sputter. Focus now will turn to the Fed.