At times like these you may wonder whether the biggest player is central banks. Downgrade of Spain sends the Euro down but now back to virtually no change. Facts ignored do not cease to be facts and the fact is that Europe is steadily getting into worse trouble. If you are one of the long position proponents, you better use tight stops because at any given moment this thing could fall apart.
Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy may have made an attempt to stabilize the credit markets by announcing that they will have a master plan by the end of October. however, the longer dated euribor spreads are still elevated, the recent Italian debt premium over Spain rose , and of particular concern the German and French credit default swaps rose in the last two weeks. This indicates that the credit markets are still skeptical of any master plan.
Well after it was all over with, 12 trades, 6 positive, 6 negative for an accumulation of over 246 pips, just to end up a little better than I started. Trying to anticipate the market can be frustrating. Can't wait for that clear direction, which my gut tells me is to the north. However, playing the smaller moves in the meanwhile.
I also did well selling the break of the pivot point and major trend line at 1.3763 then selling it again when they retested it. Now its coming up a third time and im staying away. Also dont like the way its playing out when i thought they would at least go to 1.3700ish.
EUR/USD is in a range with a bullish bias. Given this we assume a move to 1.3850 which is today's R1 level of the pivot point level as long as price trades above 1.3720. A decline below 1.3700 will most likely lead to a decline to 1.3625.
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Listened to a webinar from Moody's Analytics this morning on Europe:
1. Their take on the 23rd wasn't much different. They stated, no action just discussion in prep.
2. They rejected eurobonds as a solution within the needed time period.
3. Believe a 50% write down of Greek debt in 6-9 months.
4. Stated Europe is already in a recession
5. ECB's rate hikes were absolutely the wrong thing to do leading to a 50bp cut within four months and 25 of that within 60 days.
6. Showed inflation was never a real issue.
7. Downgraded projections on GDP for Eurozone.
Not a pretty picture but they did not think Europe would be as bad off in one year from now as they are right now. Pain in the future but will survive and move forward from there.
On US commentary they stated the biggest problem was being flat. Actually think the US we slowly move forward and have an "O.K." second half of 2012.
Was this research something one could get for free? Do you have a link?
Yesterday I was quite accurate with my analysis and it brought 100 pips from 1.37 to 1.38.
Today I'm getting a bit worried about this uptrend. There's a sort of a triangle forming with higher lows and lower highs. To be honest, it looks bearish to me. PA is dropping and another test of 1.37 is likely. If PA trades below 1.37 I think it will drop significantly to at least S2 or to 1.357.
I would buy only above 1.38 (previous high) on a pullback.
Some important fudies are released tomorrow from both the U.S. and Europe, so I'll be rather cautious.
nice, keep it up
i think the most simple thing to look at in the short term, is price it self. just by the way price is moving to the up side, bulls are dominating this game. nothing will stop them till the longer term charts says so, and they have more influence the shorter term charts. so why would anyone try and pick a top on shorter term charts when clearly longer term are saying UP!!! ???? also, i have found alot, with me, when i look at shorter term charts bulls seem to take a break, and it even makes me think that the trend is over and we are going to start moving lower and bears are ganna come in. but its just that, a "break" for the bulls. look bit back and bulls are still there. ahh anyway, i cant really explain my self now. brain dead.
on daily and 4 hour move down from 1.45 price now finds lots of respect on the fib retrace on all 38.2, 50.0 and im sure 61.8. (like i said in my previous post), price finds resis, bounces of, breaks it, and then retest the break on all counts.
on my charts they are also very inline with longer term fib pivots. monthly S3 +the 50.0 retrace (kinda) were/are great resistance levels, soon to break or is breaking. plain and simple English, bulls are wide awake, till we get an exhaust on longer term, daily, i like these higher high/lows. some good buying opp's.
my last post i had a target of 1.4. present, i still like it. at 1.4 we could get some bear back on 4 hour, which i think we have been needing for awhile. but we shall see where we are today and where we gap (if we gap) next week. anyway good weekend.
trade safe
forgot to mention with 200 ma. if you look at 30 or 1 hour, price is moving further and further away from the 200MA. also show there is strong bull mom. till price gets closer and ever test the 200MA i still like up. only till we start heading to 200MA test and stay around there then we can start saying bear is really coming in to push price much lower.
USdollar chart to give me some help with my view. we could get a push down to S4, also monthly S1 (red)
Listened to a webinar from Moody's Analytics this morning on Europe:
1. Their take on the 23rd wasn't much different. They stated, no action just discussion in prep.
2. They rejected eurobonds as a solution within the needed time period.
3. Believe a 50% write down of Greek debt in 6-9 months.
4. Stated Europe is already in a recession
5. ECB's rate hikes were absolutely the wrong thing to do leading to a 50bp cut within four months and 25 of that within 60 days.
6. Showed inflation was never a real issue.
7. Downgraded projections on GDP for Eurozone.
Not a pretty picture but they did not think Europe would be as bad off in one year from now as they are right now. Pain in the future but will survive and move forward from there.
On US commentary they stated the biggest problem was being flat. Actually think the US we slowly move forward and have an "O.K." second half of 2012.
nice to see moodys are with me on the meetings, athough i think the rating agencies are a bunch of jokers... i think greek writedown is very hard to say, especially to pick the time, which i guess is why they're 50:50.
I don't think europe is in recsession. look at the german figures recently. Also, they've basically said there will definately be rate cuts, which i think is far from a certainty. I actually got a similar summary from socgen a couple of days ago that says the european economy is stronger than ppl think. Either way, i think its better to look at the data and make my own projections as the investment banks and consultants are generally piss-poor at it themselves imo.
3823-25 resis and then possible initial strike to 3846-49 and if taken out we could be heading to 3880-95. above that and this could try to close above 3940... aud imp resis in.. and gu dying for a break as well...
if 3846 hits and spikes down could be a possible hint of a false break and back to the shorts it could be if heads lower to 3810-14... anyways some charts..
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
nice to see moodys are with me on the meetings, athough i think the rating agencies are a bunch of jokers... i think greek writedown is very hard to say, especially to pick the time, which i guess is why they're 50:50.
I don't think europe is in recsession. look at the german figures recently. Also, they've basically said there will definately be rate cuts, which i think is far from a certainty. I actually got a similar summary from socgen a couple of days ago that says the european economy is stronger than ppl think. Either way, i think its better to look at the data and make my own projections as the investment banks and consultants are generally piss-poor at it themselves imo.
A big problem is the disparity - some countries in the EU are in a recession and some are not, so it is harder for the ECB to design policy. Greece is in a depression. Portugal and Spain are struggling. Germany is an economic powerhouse chugging along. Also, some of these smaller Mediterranean countries have a fairly significant "shadow" economy which doesn't show up in economic numbers. Some Greek people move in with their cousins in the country and live off the land. Self sustaining farming and fishing even supports a lot of people in Southern Italy.
The ratings agencies have been on a rampage lately, and if the situation weren't so serious it would almost be comical. In the last couple of weeks they have downgraded three countries, and over 25 banks. So market participants are starting to shrug off these downgrades. Another day, another downgrade. What else is new.
The real problem in the banking sector in Europe. If the EU requires the banks to raise their capital levels, they are likely to cut credit lines and shrink their balance sheets. It would be very difficult for them to raise capital in the market at this point since few institutional investors want to buy shares of European banks. And that means cutting credit lines to large and small businesses at a time when they need it most. So there is an impending credit crunch. And it seems every economist and political leader all over the world is telling the Europeans what they have to do, but it's going to be very expensive. Recapitalizing these banks could cost trillions.
Is anyone doing that CNBC portfolio challenge? If so are you having issues loading their currency platform? i have to refresh the page like a dozen times before it will load and i have followed all their advice.
We are once again seeing where the dominate trading influencer are the headlines. we are not trading with any anchor to fundamental reality. Tech side is contradictory right now and fundys out the window. PA is based on news in the last few hours with a overriding bias that no bad news equals good news.
As to Europe there is little to discuss, we have nothing new in months. They talk and then do not act. Even when they talk they are vague. I sometimes wonder if they are testing ideas with the market before they drill into a solution.
We are once again seeing where the dominate trading influencer are the headlines. we are not trading with any anchor to fundamental reality. Tech side is contradictory right now and fundys out the window. PA is based on news in the last few hours with a overriding bias that no bad news equals good news.
As to Europe there is little to discuss, we have nothing new in months. They talk and then do not act. Even when they talk they are vague. I sometimes wonder if they are testing ideas with the market before they drill into a solution.
it could still make another wave higher although 1.39 looks like an important resistance level. Big traders probably dont want to take short positions ahead of the next summit particularly with rumors that China will make big contributions to the IMF to bail out the EU. This seems kind of vague - I doubt the Europeans want other countries seizing control of their banks
yep ... above that it looks to be 1.4 strike..
actually 1.4 is the completion of this move up on below chart.. 8 hrs..
GL..
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
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Originally Posted by stkelrey
