Thread: Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Originally Posted by stryker

I'm so glad i was away for the last 3-4 hrs and I guess I missed nothing at all.
What a dead mkt it has been .....
I was banking on gold to be a shiner but it hardly moved.... 1751 entry in but it needs to move now..

Anyways.............. its been sloppy today for sure..

GL..

Now what was you saying in your signature..... Patience is a virtue?

So what happened to gold at 18.10gmt?
1757 to 1772 in 10 mins. Cool. No, Hot!
Had a nice day!

DX 8 hrs has a wedge in play along with a possible Inv HNS..

However since it is a rising wedge, possibly be dropping instead of breaking north..
Yet have to wait it out....

GL..

Up or Down ?

Originally Posted by byways

Now what was you saying in your signature..... Patience is a virtue?

So what happened to gold at 18.10gmt?
1757 to 1772 in 10 mins. Cool. No, Hot!
Had a nice day!

Happy as hell and you can see my response to it on OIL N GOLD forum... racked in nicely and leaving one intact for I feel 1792-94 prior to a possible fall...

GL..

Shorts closed for 20 pip loss (2 days work mind you!)

Bullish triangle is assumed 4th wave of wave 1 of wave C, and has broken to upside and retraced. Entering long with next fibo line as target - 1.3324.

Feeling a lot older after this consolidation!

Originally Posted by MysticMegatron

Heres where i am:
The LTRO is on the 28th (Tues). Institutional investors are not going to sell off massively in Europe before this - this is almost certain, unless there is some other super-negative news event. The ECB is GIVING OUT FREE MEDIUM-TERM MONEY to banks. The Japanese are doing QE: more risk-on. We could see big external inflows into Euro govt and corporate debt if the next LTRO amount is large, as it will be a race to take the free ECB money. borrowing from the ECB at 1% is very low cost, so I think the banks in Italy and Spain would be retarded not to borrow in large amounts, given that people have essentially no confidence in them already without intervention.
We have a gap to close which bottoms around 13140, and this would correspond with the upper of the narrow green lines on the below chart:

Attachment 114587

ATM we are seeing sellers around the 38.2 retracement of the last large move down, and this is a logical place for longer-term sellers to enter the market, however, if we get any positive news next week (did i mention the LTRO?) then perhaps these guys will move back to the 50/61.8% retracement of the blue fibs on the chart - which also happens to be the area around longer-term trendline resistance and the top of the longer-term downward channels. I posted already about the possibility of breakouts on the DAX and Oil.

The red circles on the chart show that the green line has been decent resistance and a breakout level that imo was overcome at the start of this week when we gapped up on open - unless we close below it this week. either way, if we close the gap on friday / monday i'll be looking to buy.

Don't you think the LTROs from the ECB have the impact of debasing the euro to some degree? On the other hand they borrow dollars from the US Fed so maybe the total impact on the eur/usd is negligible.
Risk is on but its been on for a long time and getting tired...the S & P is up almost 20% since November...

Originally Posted by Clivewaverider

Shorts closed for 20 pip loss (2 days work mind you!)

Bullish triangle is assumed 4th wave of wave 1 of wave C, and has broken to upside and retraced. Entering long with next fibo line as target - 1.3324.

Feeling a lot older after this consolidation!

Good! I thought you were holding it and I was getting a bit worried there for you...

Well we got the daily close above cloud, even a dip back into it in early asia but its now back above it. This is pending a break out of resistance, 3300 etc, and more daily closes above it for better confirmation, but for now the setup is in play and its a matter of the market pushing it or not.

Net shorts increased today on oanda and i bet they did on fxcm ssi as well. Mostly people bearish on twitter as well.

The gap right now is a concern for taking longs, but there have been gaps that were not closed for a few weeks even a couple months. Anything is possible.

Originally Posted by stryker

DX 8 hrs has a wedge in play along with a possible Inv HNS..

However since it is a rising wedge, possibly be dropping instead of breaking north..
Yet have to wait it out....

GL..

Hello, my dear Stryker :-) You are now so good at this, I don't even understand what you're saying!

In my humble opinion, we could see a fall to trendline support at 1.3160-ish before a move higher - perhaps next week. I'm watching the tightening daily range and Bollinger bands as a sign of an imminent breakout.
Good luck to everyone!

Originally Posted by melbgirl

Hello, my dear Stryker :-) You are now so good at this, I don't even understand what you're saying!

In my humble opinion, we could see a fall to trendline support at 1.3160-ish before a move higher - perhaps next week. I'm watching the tightening daily range and Bollinger bands as a sign of an imminent breakout.
Good luck to everyone!

...and that would close Monday's gap....

Originally Posted by banison

Good! I thought you were holding it and I was getting a bit worried there for you...

Well thanks for that - I had got most of the waves up, 1 to 3, so only missed out on the scalping. Should have listened to Mystic Megatron!

I could of held on but calc'd more available in changing tack, however much it hurts psychologically. Interestingly, my original counts of a shallow 2 and how the the shorts on the big C wave down were not getting any easy out, has proved correct. I am really looking forward to the wave 2 down now though, once this wave 5 completes.

EU 4 hr at resis into 3280-82 zone. and a break higher shall set the tone for gains to late 33XX...

GL..

Originally Posted by stryker

EU 4 hr at resis into 3280-82 zone. and a break higher shall set the tone for gains to late 33XX...

GL..

I think, the upthrust will not be convincing until we clear 3320... what do you say? I just took short at 3275 for target to 3240

Originally Posted by melbgirl

Hello, my dear Stryker :-) You are now so good at this, I don't even understand what you're saying!

In my humble opinion, we could see a fall to trendline support at 1.3160-ish before a move higher - perhaps next week. I'm watching the tightening daily range and Bollinger bands as a sign of an imminent breakout.
Good luck to everyone!

You are now so good at this, I don't even understand what you're saying! lol Melbgirl, I hope u meant in a nice way.. At times even I don't know what I'm saying.. I suppose I'm not doing traditional TL potting rather going in for setups and heavily gotten into pattern trading that at times I see so much within the same time frames, it at times fogs my decision. So it could be an inv HNS pointing for a north bound train but at the same time an ascending wedge hinting at break lower... Since mostly we trade against the USD, I like to know what it is in mood for...

3170 is comimg in as a decent supp under 3220-23 which should stay intact else risk is to the downside..
to the upside a clean break of 3282-84 should get us close to min 3360-64 which i would love to see... 339X is upper tgt or R2 and 3422 R3 perhaps..
I simply lovin gold................... its been doing much much better and it trends up nicely..

GL...

Originally Posted by stryker

You are now so good at this, I don't even understand what you're saying! lol Melbgirl, I hope u meant in a nice way.. At times even I don't know what I'm saying.. I suppose I'm not doing traditional TL potting rather going in for setups and heavily gotten into pattern trading that at times I see so much within the same time frames, it at times fogs my decision. So it could be an inv HNS pointing for a north bound train but at the same time an ascending wedge hinting at break lower... Since mostly we trade against the USD, I like to know what it is in mood for...

3170 is comimg in as a decent supp under 3220-23 which should stay intact else risk is to the downside..
to the upside a clean break of 3282-84 should get us close to min 3360-64 which i would love to see... 339X is upper tgt or R2 and 3422 R3 perhaps..
I simply lovin gold................... its been doing much much better and it trends up nicely..

GL...

Of course I meant it in a nice way!

I realised that I'm not good with the more complex patterns or Elliot waves, so for me, it's sticking to trendlines mainly... Gold has certainly been behaving well lately, except when it looked like it's going to fall through 1700 sometime last week.