Closed: Discuss EUR/USD News with a DailyFX Analyst

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by karunakarp

I think, the upthrust will not be convincing until we clear 3320... what do you say? I just took short at 3275 for target to 3240

---

I'm long 2976 and 3222 and i have hedged shots 3282.. a clean break should continue to 3360ish.. and I won't mind to take a small hit on shorts.. Shorts to brighten up on a break under 3220.. DX faltering on bigger time frames and it could sink is a likely scenario so far..
hedge shorts I be willing to take small profits on 10-20 pips and then sell back again under the current lows on any surge higher...
I'm bias long on euro..
A decent dip here is to test 3248-50 and a break under to show 3216-20 lvl as main supp for EU session...
A break under and a fall to 3170 is imminent..
A 30 mins chart to illustrate these moves...

GL..

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by stryker

I'm long 2976 and 3222 and i have hedged shots 3282.. a clean break should continue to 3360ish.. and I won't mind to take a small hit on shorts.. Shorts to brighten up on a break under 3220.. DX faltering on bigger time frames and it could sink is a likely scenario so far..
hedge shorts I be willing to take small profits on 10-20 pips and then sell back again under the current lows on any surge higher...
I'm bias long on euro..
A decent dip here is to test 3248-50 and a break under to show 3216-20 lvl as main supp for EU session...
A break under and a fall to 3170 is imminent..
A 30 mins chart to illustrate these moves...

GL..

---

Yes, even I am biased for longs... waiting for better level to get in...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by melbgirl

Of course I meant it in a nice way! :)

I realised that I'm not good with the more complex patterns or Elliot waves, so for me, it's sticking to trendlines mainly... Gold has certainly been behaving well lately, except when it looked like it's going to fall through 1700 sometime last week.

---

Yeah, I know I got so many messaged to short it for oblivion but that is when i started buying on every dip I got my hands on... 1705 was my line in the sand with 1696 if falters to be out of the game.. Since then I have gotten 3 major moves from A-Z.. including yesterday was long 1751 all the way to 1780ish... I see more surge upto 1792-94 b4 some decent retrace...
As of now 1771 is supp on it...
Here is a layout on weekly and daily GOLD as of yesterday....

GL..

Here's my count for this whole move up: note current price right up against the median line for the regression channel - top of channel is in the R4 area at 1.3360 as per Stryker's wishes. I'll be shorting into that!

4H- may be cup and handle..

http://666kb.com/i/c1hzrmbuhju8z47qb.png

EU 30 mins resis at 3308 followed by 3338-40 and finally 4 hrs 3360-63 as R1 for me followed by 339X as R2 and 3422 as R3..

GOLD 1797 is extension top on gold with extreme lvls up north above 1799 to challenge 1809 or close by.. As of now 1797 is a sell spot...

GL...

EUR/USD: We finally get at break of 1.33. I am now looking for a move to 1.3350

Same chart.. RED TL resis at 3324-26 we flirted with...
A break higher with breaking above 3360-63 seems to be a done deal here on euro for a move into 36XX..
Hence we in at critical lvls now.. I banked some added above 3285 around the highs.. a beak higher and we surely into higher territory...

GL..

Initial target hit at 1.3324 - certainly feels better than languishing in that triangle! Looks like lots of energy here but waiting for consolidation again now - would be great to see an ending diagonal building now with a slower move back down to R2 at 1.3296.

A much better day!

EUR/USD February 23 - 2012
Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/AlejandroDFX

We finally get at break of 1.33 and I am now looking for a move to 1.3350.
Traders with no position in the markets will probably be very keen on buying dips to the 1.3270-1.3290 area. I will remain bullish as long as we trade above 1.3240.

Please bear in mind that we are relatively close to today's target its therefore important to make sure to have a good relationship between potential reward and potential loss. As a minimum one should expect to make as many pips as someone is risking.

Feel free to join me today at 11:30 GMT for a free FX, stock and commodity market webinar at www.dailyfx.com/bvb

EUR/USD 30 min chart
http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/8473/13355347.png

Market Strategist | DailyFX Forums (London)
azambrano@fxcm.com

Follow @AlejandroDFX


*Joining DailyFX Forum is free and offers an extended range of features, including: Replying to other peoples' threads and receiving email notification of replies to posts and threads you specify. Click here to join today.

This is also one of my main chart that kept me bullish all this while on this pair..
Hence 3326 is main breakout lvl as of the earlier 8 hrs charts and T1 on this 4 hrs or 3360-64 is confirmation .. A move and a close higher to this 4 hrs and we can see a freight train to the north bound..
DX hitting its wedge base as well so 3360 possibly could hold out.. however on DX rising wedge pattern should be breaking north after perhaps some retrace..

GL...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mary R

Don't you think the LTROs from the ECB have the impact of debasing the euro to some degree? On the other hand they borrow dollars from the US Fed so maybe the total impact on the eur/usd is negligible.
Risk is on but its been on for a long time and getting tired...the S & P is up almost 20% since November...

---

I think the eventual effect might be debasement, but only if when the loan payback time comes the loanees are unable to return the borrowed money (i.e. if the investments they make using the borrowed ECB money do not cover the cost of the borrowing). This, in my opinion, would lead to the ECB taking the losses - which I would say qualifies as money-printing by the ECB. Until this pouint - and this could be a few years away - I think the borrowing is essentially mimicking the process of a huge new investor entering the market, buying all the other banks collateral: meaning the buying pressure in the market is increased. This is why I think we can go to all time highs in nominal terms.

when i say all time highs - i mean Euro equities

It would seem that we are only in wave 4 of wave 3 here - that 1.3365 target could be achieved by this 3rd wave alone. Although I'll short at that level, it will only be for scalping purposes to 38% ish of the final third wave advance. Wave 5, if it does not truncate or run out of steam, could go into the 1.3400's and a bit. Lots of caveats here I know but this overall wave up has some shoulders behind it and seemingly little appetite to give up too early.

Turning out to be a really good week at last. Nothing like a trend to put a spring in your step!

It seems like it's coming off the boil. EUR/JPY or other yen crosses could be correcting lower too.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by melbgirl

It seems like it's coming off the boil. EUR/JPY or other yen crosses could be correcting lower too.

---

lol .. was just checking but euppy and geppy looks or seems to be higher.. but this is a rough sketch and might take a better look next week..
Geppy on 4 hrs wants more gains.. bull flag possibly on it on 4 hrs..

GL..